Monthly Report for September 2026

Property Market Analysis

Buyer Caution Continues to Weigh on Housing Activity

One of the key features of the current housing market is continued buyer caution, driven by expectations of higher interest rates and broader economic uncertainty.

As wholesale interest rates and mortgage rates have risen, some prospective buyers are reassessing their borrowing capacity and potential future repayment costs.

Volatility in global oil prices and policy uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election may also weigh on market confidence. According to ANZ's latest property report, housing sales have softened across much of the country. In some regions, the number of properties available for sale has increased, the time required to sell a property has lengthened, and seasonally adjusted auction clearance rates have remained relatively weak.

New Housing Supply Increases as Listings Remain Elevated

While demand remains subdued, housing supply continues to face upward pressure.

According to recent data from Statistics New Zealand, 41,268 new homes were consented between September 2025 and August 2026, an increase of 21.1% compared with the same period a year earlier. This points to a potential increase in future housing supply.

Data from Realestate.co.nz also shows that 34,001 residential properties were listed for sale at the end of September 2026, up 10.7% year-on-year. Total available stock reached its highest level since 2014.

As the number of homes available for sale increases without a corresponding rise in buyer demand, competition among sellers may intensify. For buyers, this could mean greater choice and more negotiating power in some areas. For sellers, realistic pricing and expectations around the time required to sell are becoming increasingly important.

House Prices Continue to Soften, with Significant Regional Differences

At a national level, house prices have yet to show signs of a sustained recovery.

According to the Cotality Home Value Index, New Zealand's median residential property value was down 1.33% year-on-year in September 2026, with values recording their sixth consecutive monthly decline. REINZ data also points to continued weakness, with modest price declines recorded in four of the past five months.

ANZ estimates that, after looking through short-term volatility, the underlying trend in national house prices is currently around a 0.5% decline per quarter. ANZ expects house prices to remain under modest pressure over the coming months, with national average house prices potentially ending 2026 around 1% below where they started the year.

A modest recovery is expected in 2027, although ANZ forecasts annual house price growth of only around 2%.

National figures, however, do not tell the full story, with considerable differences in performance across regions.

Auckland and Wellington

The Auckland and Wellington housing markets remain relatively weak.

ANZ notes that the pace of house price declines in Wellington has accelerated since March 2026. This may partly reflect higher interest rates and concerns about the possibility of further public-sector cuts signalled in the 2026 Budget.

Auckland and other parts of the North Island have also shown signs of further weakness over recent months. According to Cotality, annual house price movements vary considerably across Auckland, with declines ranging from 0.8% in Franklin to 4.5% in Central Auckland.

Parts of the South Island

By comparison, some South Island markets had previously shown greater resilience. However, ANZ notes that house price growth in the South Island has also slowed in recent months, although it is too early to tell whether this trend will continue.

OCR Outlook

According to ANZ's latest report, its economists expect the RBNZ to raise the OCR three more times:

• October 2026: 25 basis point increase
• February 2027: 25 basis point increase
• March 2027: further 25 basis point increase

Under this forecast, the OCR would ultimately rise to 3.5%.

Economist Tony Alexander has a higher OCR forecast. In his recent commentary, he suggests that the OCR may ultimately need to rise to 4.0%–4.5%.

His view is based primarily on two factors.

First, Alexander believes the RBNZ may have cut the OCR too far. He points out that when the OCR was lowered to 2.25% in October and November 2025, the New Zealand economy was already starting to grow more quickly. In his view, some of the recent and expected rate increases may simply be reversing those earlier cuts.

Second, many businesses are still planning to raise their prices. According to the ANZ Business Outlook survey, some businesses may be waiting for consumer demand to improve before putting these price increases in place. If the economy continues to recover and consumer spending picks up, more businesses may start raising their prices, which could keep inflation higher for longer.

Alexander also points to several other factors that could keep inflation higher. These include the possible impact of El Niño on farming, growing demand for resources from AI and data-centre development, a weaker New Zealand dollar, and higher energy and food prices. He also notes that rising global defence spending and government debt could add further pressure to inflation and longer-term interest rates.

Mortgage Rate Outlook

Fixed mortgage rates are not based only on the current OCR. They are also influenced by wholesale interest rates and expectations about where interest rates may go next.

Recently, higher global oil prices and bond yields have pushed New Zealand wholesale rates higher. This has also put upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates.

Most fixed mortgage rates have increased this month. Floating rates have also risen following the earlier OCR increase.

The two-year fixed rate has been an exception. Several banks are currently offering special two-year rates, with strong competition helping to keep these rates lower. However, if wholesale rates continue to rise, these special offers may not last.

For borrowers who are coming up for a refix, one of the main decisions is whether to choose a shorter or longer fixed term.

Shorter fixed terms currently offer relatively lower rates, which can help keep repayments down in the short term. However, there is a risk that rates could be higher when it is time to refix again.

Longer fixed terms offer more certainty because the interest rate is locked in for a longer period. However, these rates are generally higher at the moment. If inflation comes down and mortgage rates fall in the future, borrowers who fix for longer may miss out on lower rates.

There are also different views on which fixed term may be suitable in the current market.

Tony Alexander has said that he personally prefers a three-year fixed term to reduce the risk of being affected by further interest rate increases.

ANZ, meanwhile, sees some appeal in the two-year fixed rate, as it provides more certainty without being significantly more expensive than shorter-term options.

With the future direction of interest rates still uncertain, some borrowers may also consider splitting their mortgage across different fixed terms. This can help avoid having the entire loan come up for refixing at the same time.

Ultimately, there is no single fixed term that will suit everyone. The right choice will depend on your financial situation, repayment capacity and future plans, as well as how much you value lower costs now versus greater certainty for the future.

Conclusion

The outlook for both the housing market and interest rates remains uncertain.

For prospective buyers, softer house prices may provide greater choice and negotiating opportunities, but future borrowing costs remain an important consideration. For existing mortgage holders, decisions around fixed terms require a careful balance between interest costs, repayment capacity and flexibility.

Regardless of how market conditions develop, reviewing your financial position and planning your lending arrangements in advance can help you better prepare for future changes.

进入2026年第四季度，新西兰房地产市场依然承压。

此前，随着利率下降和经济逐步复苏，市场曾期待房市迎来更明显的回暖。然而，国际油价及全球债券收益率走高，通胀压力再度加剧，推动新西兰批发利率及住房贷款利率上涨，令房地产市场的复苏面临更多阻力。

与此同时，房屋供应持续增加，而买家对未来利率走势和经济前景仍持谨慎态度，进一步加大了房地产市场的供需压力。

本文将结合近期市场数据与经济分析，梳理房地产市场及住房贷款利率的最新变化，为购房决策和贷款规划提供参考。

房地产市场分析

买家观望情绪加重，房屋销售市场持续承压

近期新西兰房地产市场的一个明显特征，是买家购房意愿受到利率上涨预期及经济不确定性的影响。随着批发利率和住房贷款利率走高，部分潜在买家开始重新评估自己的贷款能力和未来还款成本。

此外，国际油价波动及大选带来的政策不确定性，也可能进一步影响市场信心。根据ANZ房地产报告，大部分地区的房屋销售表现有所走弱，部分地区的待售房屋库存增加，房屋出售所需时间延长，季节性调整后的拍卖成交表现也较为疲软。

这意味着目前市场上的买家整体仍然较为谨慎。

新房供应增加，待售房屋库存处于较高水平

在需求疲弱的同时，房屋供应仍面临增长压力。

根据Statistics NZ近期公布的数据，从2025年9月至2026年8月，新住宅建筑许可数量达到41,268套，同比增长21.1%，反映出未来潜在住房供应有所增加。

Realestate.co.nz数据显示，截至2026年9月底，网站上共有34,001处住宅房产待售，同比增长10.7%，待售库存总量达到自2014年以来的最高水平。

随着待售房屋增加，而买家需求未能同步增长，卖家之间的竞争可能加剧。对于买家而言，部分地区可能出现更多选择和议价空间；对于卖家而言，合理定价及对销售周期的预期则变得更加重要。

全国房价继续走弱，但不同地区差异明显

从全国数据来看，房价尚未出现明显的持续回升。

根据Cotality房屋价值指数，2026年9月新西兰住房价值中位数同比下降1.33%，并已连续第六个月出现环比下降。REINZ的数据同样反映出市场疲弱的趋势：过去五个月中，有四个月出现小幅价格下降。

ANZ分析认为，剔除短期波动后，全国房价整体呈现每季度约0.5%的下降趋势。ANZ预计，未来几个月房价仍将小幅承压，到2026年底，全国平均房价可能较年初下降约1%。2027年则可能出现温和复苏，预计全年涨幅约为2%。

不过，全国平均数据并不能完全反映各地区的实际表现，区域之间仍存在明显差异。

-奥克兰和惠灵顿

奥克兰和惠灵顿的房地产市场仍然较为疲弱。

ANZ指出，惠灵顿房价自2026年3月以来跌势加快，可能与利率上涨及2026年财政预算案所释放的公共部门进一步裁员风险有关。

奥克兰及北岛其他地区，过去几个月同样出现了市场进一步走弱的迹象。根据Cotality的数据，奥克兰不同地区的年度房价表现存在明显差异，跌幅从Franklin的0.8%到Central Auckland的4.5%不等。

-南岛部分地区

相比之下，南岛部分地区此前表现相对较强。不过，ANZ指出，最近几个月南岛的房价上涨动力也开始减弱，但目前尚不能确定当地房价走势是否已经发生明确转变。

OCR走势分析

根据本期ANZ报告，经济学家预计RBNZ未来可能再次加息三次：

-2026年10月：加息25个基点。

-2027年2月：加息25个基点。

-2027年3月：再次加息25个基点。

按照这一预测，OCR最终将升至3.5%。

相比之下，经济学家Tony Alexander在其近期报告中提出了更高的OCR预测，认为利率可能需要升至4%—4.5%。

他的判断主要基于两个方面。

首先，他认为此前OCR的下调幅度可能过大。 Tony指出，RBNZ在2025年10月至11月将OCR下调至2.25%时，新西兰经济已经开始加速增长。因此，他认为当前及未来的部分加息，可能只是抵消此前货币政策过度宽松的影响。

其次，企业的涨价意愿仍然较强。 Tony引用ANZ Business Outlook调查指出，不少企业计划提高产品和服务的销售价格。部分企业可能仍在等待消费者需求恢复，尚未完全落实涨价计划。如果经济持续增长、消费需求回升，这些涨价计划可能逐步转化为实际价格上涨，使通胀更难回落。

此外，Tony还指出，未来通胀面临多方面的上行风险，包括厄尔尼诺现象对农业生产的潜在影响、人工智能及数据中心发展带来的资源需求增长、纽币走弱，以及能源和食品价格上涨等。全球国防开支增加及政府债务问题，也可能进一步推高通胀和长期利率。

住房贷款利率分析

住房贷款固定利率并不完全取决于当前OCR，还受到批发利率及金融市场对未来利率预期的影响。

近期，国际油价及全球债券收益率上涨，推动新西兰批发利率互换利率走高，进而对银行固定住房贷款利率形成上涨压力。

本月，大多数固定期限的住房贷款利率均有所上升，浮动利率也随此前OCR的上调而上涨。不过，两年期固定利率成为明显的例外。由于多家银行针对这一期限推出特别优惠，激烈的市场竞争暂时抵消了部分批发利率上涨带来的压力。但如果批发利率持续走高，这些优惠可能难以长期维持。

对于即将重新固定利率的客户而言，当前面临的主要问题，是如何在利息成本与利率确定性之间作出权衡。

选择较短的固定期限，可以享受目前相对较低的利率，减轻眼前的还款压力，但也需要承担未来续期时利率可能进一步上涨的风险。

相比之下，较长的固定期限能够提前锁定未来几年的利率，提供更大的还款确定性，但当前成本通常较高。如果未来通胀得到控制、利率重新下降，借款人也可能错过更低的利率。

对于固定期限的选择，不同经济学家提出了不同观点。

经济学家Tony Alexander在其分析中表示，他个人倾向于选择三年期固定利率，以规避未来利率上涨的风险。

ANZ则认为，两年期固定利率具有一定吸引力，因为它能够在当前利率成本与未来确定性之间提供一种选择。

此外，在当前市场不确定性较高的情况下，将贷款拆分为不同固定期限，也可能帮助部分借款人分散未来的续期利率风险。

最终，借款人仍需根据自身财务状况、现金流承受能力及未来资金安排，综合考虑不同固定期限的成本、确定性与灵活性。

总结

当前房市与利率走势仍存在较大不确定性。对于购房者而言，房价走弱可能带来更多选择，但仍需考虑未来的融资成本；对于现有贷款客户而言，选择固定期限时，应在利息成本、还款能力和灵活性之间做好平衡。

无论市场如何变化，结合自身财务状况，提前做好合理的贷款规划，都有助于更好地应对未来的不确定性。