Monthly Report for September 2025

30/09/2025 13:17:50 - Comment(s) - By Pracca

9月份房市及利息走势分析报告

As of September, house prices have remained broadly stable, while economic data has been relatively weak. The larger-than-expected GDP contraction in Q2 raised concerns in the market, though seasonal factors played a significant role, and signs of improvement have already emerged in Q3. At the same time, expectations for further RBNZ rate cuts are strengthening, providing support for a market recovery ahead.

On the lending side, there are also encouraging signals. Westpac has reopened pre-approvals for new customers with LVRs under 80%. While some banks remain cautious, this suggests that approval processes may gradually ease.

Latest Housing Market Analysis

Price Trends

In August, nationwide house prices were generally stable. The seasonally adjusted REINZ House Price Index was flat (0.0% month-on-month), with only a slight 0.2% annual increase. Across major regions, prices were steady between July and August, with the South Island showing relatively stronger performance. Auckland, after several months of decline, also showed signs of stabilization.

With the traditional spring selling season now underway, both sales volumes and prices have seen modest improvements. Historically, October–November and February–March are peak transaction periods, during which prices often rise more quickly or see slower declines. Prices in spring/summer are typically 2–3% higher than the winter low. Overall, house prices are likely to remain stable through the rest of the year. A weak labor market and high housing inventory will cap strong price gains, but ongoing OCR cuts will gradually provide support in 2025. By 2026, nationwide house prices are expected to rise by around 5%.

Sales and Inventory

Sales: August sales volumes were below the long-term average.
New Listings: Higher than normal for the season (excluding the 2020 pandemic effect).
Inventory: Overall levels remain elevated, especially in Auckland. The pace of inventory declines slowed in other regions during August.

Market Activity Indicators

Sales-to-listings ratio: Weakened in the past two months. Since this typically leads house price movements by 3–6 months, it suggests the market may remain soft toward year-end.
Median days to sell: Has stayed above the long-term average throughout 2025, reflecting a lack of significant improvement.
Auction clearance rates: Averaged 43% over the five weeks after August, up from 37% in the prior five weeks. However, this reflects seasonal spring activity rather than a sharp rise in buyer demand.

Investor Sentiment

ASB’s Q2 survey shows that only 1% of investors are optimistic about the year ahead. Key concerns include a subdued housing market, equity market volatility, and uncertainty from global geopolitics and trade policy. Confidence hit a low in April, but has since recovered somewhat, supported by U.S. rate cuts that boosted equity markets.

Macroeconomy

GDP fell 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, the lowest this year and much weaker than expected. However, seasonal factors played a large role, and it does not indicate a full-scale collapse. Manufacturing contracted 3.5% at the start of winter, with transport equipment, machinery, and equipment manufacturing down 6.2%. Food, beverage, and tobacco manufacturing fell 2.2%, while construction dropped 1.8%, offsetting Q1’s gains.

Economists point out that tariff measures introduced by the Trump administration in April added uncertainty and contributed to weakness. The good news is that from July onward, data has improved, and RBNZ’s Q3 nowcast is more upbeat, suggesting a rebound from the Q2 trough. Finance Minister Nicola Willis noted that the actual impact of tariffs was less severe than feared, and most export industries remain optimistic.

Economist Tony Alexander highlighted four main reasons for weaker-than-expected GDP:

Higher prices
Higher taxes
Fewer new immigrants
Uncertainty from global trade policy

He believes RBNZ rate cuts will provide short-term support, and with strong agricultural incomes in summer, the outlook for recovery is positive. He expects the South Island to lead the rebound, followed by the North Island, while Auckland may not see improvement until next year. However, he noted that rate cuts can only provide short-term relief and do not guarantee long-term sustainable growth.

Mortgage Rate Trends

Floating and 1–3 year fixed rates: Largely unchanged this month.
4–5 year fixed rates: Average rates declined slightly.

At the latest RBNZ meeting, some committee members supported a 50bp cut. Combined with the sharp Q2 GDP decline, markets now widely expect deeper rate cuts ahead. Current market pricing suggests 25bp cuts in both October and November, bringing the OCR to 2.5% by year-end, where it would likely remain through 2026. Some economists, however, expect even larger cuts, with ASB forecasting a 50bp cut in October and another 25bp in November, which would take the OCR to 2.25% by year-end. Whatever the pace, further easing will support the housing market, with house prices projected to rise by around 5% by 2026.

Conclusion

In summary, house prices were stable this month, with seasonal factors driving a modest pickup in sales activity. While Q2 GDP was much weaker than expected, this was largely due to short-term factors, and Q3 has already shown signs of recovery. Expectations for further OCR cuts have strengthened, which will gradually support both the housing market and the broader economy. Over the medium term, house prices are projected to rise around 5% by 2026.

We will proactively reach out when your loan is approaching expiry and provide tailored restructure advice based on market conditions at that time. If you are planning to purchase property, restructure your loan, or consider refinancing in the near future, please feel free to contact us. We are always here to support you.

截止9月，房价整体保持稳定，经济数据疲软。二季度 GDP 的下滑超出预期，让市场一度担忧，不过季节性因素影响较大，三季度已有改善迹象。同时，央行的降息预期正在增强，为未来的市场恢复提供了支撑。

在贷款方面，也出现了积极信号。Westpac 重新开始为 LVR 低于 80% 的新客户开放预审批，虽然有些银行仍保持谨慎，但这显示出审批流程或将逐步加快。对房地产市场而言，资金可得性和融资成本的改善将成为影响未来走势的重要因素。

房地产市场分析

房价走势

八月份全国房价整体保持平稳。季调后的 REINZ 房价指数环比持平（0.0%），同比仅微涨 0.2%。全国各主要地区的房价在 7 月与 8 月之间总体稳定，其中南岛表现相对更强。奥克兰在连续数月下跌后，也终于趋于稳定。

随着春季传统的看房旺季开启，市场成交量与价格均有小幅回升。通常 10-11 月与次年 2-3 月为成交高峰期，价格在活跃期往往上涨更快，或跌幅放缓。从历史规律看，春夏季的价格一般比冬季低点高出约 2–3%。整体来看，今年余下时间房价大概率保持平稳。就业市场疲软与库存量大将抑制价格大幅上行，而 OCR 的持续下调会在 2025 年逐步显现支持作用。预计到 2026 年，全国房价有望上涨约 5%。

房地产交易与库存

销量：8 月销量低于长期均值。
新挂牌量：高于同期正常水平（剔除 2020 年疫情影响）。
库存：整体仍处于高位，尤其是奥克兰。其他地区库存下降的速度在 8 月也有所放缓。

市场热度指标

销售/挂牌比：近两个月走弱，通常领先房价 3–6 个月，预示年底市场或仍偏疲软。
中位销售天数：2025 年以来始终高于长期均值，显示市场缺乏明显改善。
拍卖清盘率：央行数据显示，八月后五周平均 43%，高于前五周的 37%，但这符合春季的季节性规律，并非买方需求显著增强。

投资者信心

ASB 第二季度调查显示，只有 1% 的投资者对未来一年投资前景持乐观态度。主要原因包括房地产市场低迷、股市波动，以及全球地缘政治和贸易政策的不确定性。调查报告显示51% 的投资者担心全球政治不稳定，47% 担忧国际冲突，43% 担忧贸易政策。4 月份时信心处于低谷，但近期由于美国降息刺激股市活跃，投资者信心已有一定回升。

宏观经济

二季度 GDP 环比下滑 0.9%，为今年最低，远弱于预期。不过其中有较强的季节性因素，并不意味着经济全面崩溃。制造业在冬季初期明显下滑，整体下降 3.5%，其中运输设备、机械和设备制造业跌幅高达 6.2%，食品饮料与烟草制造业也下跌 2.2%，建筑业下降 1.8%，抵消了一季度的回升。

多方经济学家认为，特朗普政府四月启动的关税措施增加了全球不确定性，加剧了经济疲软。好消息是，从七月起经济数据开始改善，RBNZ 的三季度即时预测（nowcast）也更积极，显示经济已从二季度的低谷反弹。财政部长（Nicola Willis）表示，关税的实际冲击没有预期严重，大部分出口行业前景依然乐观。

经济学家 Tony Alexander 也指出，GDP 逊于预期的原因在于：

·物价上涨

·税负较高

·新移民减少

·贸易政策的不确定性（特朗普关税政策）

不过，他认为 RBNZ 的降息将为短期经济提供支撑，再加上夏季农业收入强劲，经济复苏前景积极。他预测南岛经济将率先恢复，随后蔓延至北岛，奥克兰则要到明年才会好转。但他同时提醒，降息只能提供短期支持，并不足以保证长期健康增长。

贷款利率趋势

浮动利率及 1–3 年固定利率：本月基本不变。
4–5 年固定利率：平均利率小幅下降。

在最新 RBNZ 会议中，有委员支持一次性降息 50 个基点。再加上二季度 GDP 的大幅下滑，市场普遍预期未来将出现更深度降息。当前市场预测 10 月与 11 月分别降息 25 个基点，年底 OCR 降至 2.5% 并维持至 2026 年。但部分经济学家认为，经济疲软会推动OCR降息幅度更大。ASB 经济学家预测 10 月降息 50 个基点、11 月再降 25 个基点，年底 OCR 或降至 2.25%。不论最终幅度如何，降息都会为房地产市场提供支撑，预计到 2026 年房价上涨约 5%。