9月份房市及利息走势分析报告
September passed quickly. And the biggest news in this month was the U.S. central bank cut the interest rate by more than expected. US Federal Reserve cut 0.5% to a range of 4.75%-5% amid decelerating inflation and slightly softer labour market date.
Prior to the US central bank’s rate cut, the Reserve Bank of NZ had already reduced the OCR by 25 basis points. Therefore, there is a possibility that NZ Reserve bank cut another 25 basis points on 09/10/2024. Everyone would keep an eye on the central bank’s announcement on October 9.
Looking at the loan interest rates in September, the four major banks have been gradually reducing the home loan rates. This is positive news for the Real Estate Market. As Interest rates decrease, the pressure of repayments will gradually lessen, and people will have more disposable income to spend, which is good news to NZ economy.
In my option, current home loan rates are still at a high point. Although the Reserve Bank cut the OCR to release the positive signal, it will take some time to reflect in the market.
The house market is currently in a sluggish period, but I believe that with the decrease in interest rates, the market will slowly recover.
Looking at home loan application to date, the number of first home loan buyers is dropping, more people are applying loans to purchase business, upgrading house, purchasing new investment properties and developing new properties.
People’s confidence in the house market is gradually shifting as the NZ Reserve Bank continues to cut the OCR.
Let us have a look the summary of House market
Summary
Our monthly Property Focus publication provides an independent appraisal of recent developments in the residential property market.
Property Focus
Housing market momentum continued to weaken in August, with no sign as yet of a flurry of sales following the RBNZ’s first OCR cut last month. Sales volumes remained weak, while inventories on the market rose further, suggesting that house prices are likely to correct further over the coming months in order to clear the backlog. However, anecdotal evidence has pointed to a pick-up in activity over recent weeks, and Barfoot and Thompson’s Auckland auction clearance rate has bounced, highlighting the risk that the housing market could be spurred back to life quickly as interest rates fall. Mortgage rates have continued to head lower over the month, driven by falls in wholesale rates as financial markets have ratcheted up bets that the RBNZ will step up the pace of OCR cuts to 50bp moves. That’s not what we’re expecting, but it’s worth remembering that faster cuts from the RBNZ would likely occur in response to the economy underperforming the RBNZ’s already low expectations. In that scenario, lower interest rates may not be the boon for the housing market that many assume.
Feature Article: Regional revelations
This month we look at housing market developments across 14 key regions. Now that interest rates are normalising after the post-COVID rollercoaster, regional over- or under-performance is worth investigating. We evaluate regional house prices, indicators of housing market tightness, key regional economic indicators, and regional measures of housing affordability. Most regional housing markets are currently on a loosening trajectory, though house price cycles have been far more pronounced in some regions than others. The West Coast takes the prize for the strongest performance, with house prices up around 65% from December 2019, while Auckland has seen the weakest growth, with prices up only around 10% over the same period. How does your region stack up?
Mortgage Borrowing Strategy
Mortgage rates fell further in September, led by the 2yr, with the median rate offered by the five largest banks down 0.2%pt to 5.79%, marking a cumulative fall of 1.22%pt since November. Our projections (based on our wholesale interest rate forecasts) point to further declines in fixed mortgage rates over the coming year, with larger falls expected in floating and 6mth rates, and lesser falls likely in the 4-5yr part of the curve. Many borrowers will be wondering if there’s merit in fixing one more time for a shorter term before fixing for a longer term later. With the 1yr 0.56% below the 6mth, and the 2yr 0.5% below the 1yr, both have their merits. Breakevens show that it might be a close call as to which will work out cheaper in the long run, and any decision is probably going to come down to individual risk appetite. We always see merit in spreading risk over several terms, especially since longer terms are cheaper.
9月份很快就过去了，这个月最大的新闻就是美联储将联邦基金利率下调了50个基点，因为在美国央行降息之前，新西兰央行已经下调了OCR 25个基点， 所以10月9号新西兰央行有可能会进一步下调OCR。 大家在10月9号留意央行的消息。
从9月份的贷款利息来看，四大银行都在慢慢的下调贷款利息。 这对房地产市场来说是利好的消息。 随着贷款利息的下调，人们还款的压力会慢慢减少， 人们会有更多的余钱去消费，这对新西兰的经济也是利好消息。
个人认为，目前利息还是处在高点，尽管央行下调了OCR释放了利好的消息，但是反映在市场上还是需要一段时间。 人们的消费欲望还是处在低点。
房地产市场目前还是处在低迷期，但是我相信随着利息的下降，房地产市场会慢慢恢复。
从贷款人群来看，首套购房者的数量在慢慢下降， 买生意，换房子，买投资房和开发的客人数量在慢慢增加。 人们对房地产市场的信心随着央行的降息在慢慢发生变化。
我会定期给大家做房地产市场总结。
我们来看看最新的市场总结
观察房地产市场的表现，我们主要是观察销售的天数，销售和房源的比例， 这些信息可以很好的反映房价的动态。
从8月份的住房市场来看，尽管过去几个月贷款利息有所下降，但市场的反馈还是很缓慢， 从数据来看房价环比下降了0.4%，这是连续4个月下跌，由于销售疲软和市场库存增加，预期未来几个月房价会进一步下跌。
8月份的销售量环比下降了3%， 仍远低于同期的长期历史水平。 这是因为过去一年销售疲软导致市场积压了大量待售房源。
8月份房产销售的天数持续增加，8月份增加了2 天，达到了48天，高于长期的平均水平39天
从8月份数据来看目前市场还是没有太多令人兴奋的消息， 9月份的数据是在央行调整OCR数据以后首个完整月的数据，可以给大家更多的信息。 目前经济学家预测房价可能会在年底触底，在2025年开始反弹。
从下面几个主要城市来看市场目前还处在低谷期。
从奥克兰市场来看，在高利息的影响下，中位的销售价格经历了很大的波动。 市场下跌了26%， 而全国是17%。 建筑许可数量大幅下降， 但是也慢慢恢复到疫情前的水平。 目前销售是时间超出了平均水平，销售也上市房源的比例在短期内会让房价进一步趋于平稳。
惠灵顿的住房变现在过去几年不如全国其他地区， 房价从高峰到低谷降幅达到24%，过去几个月房子销售天数增加。 建筑数量大幅下降。 经济指标走弱，失业率上升，房价的下跌改善了惠林顿的负担能力，房租的收入低于全国平均水平。
坎特伯雷的住房在过去几年变现做好，在低谷期下跌的不多。 目前房价的通胀处在正值区间。 坎特伯雷的经济表现也好于其他地区，这让房屋销售保持在接近趋势的水平。 失业率低于全国水平让人们可负担能力更好。
尽管贷款利息下降对住房市场来说是好消息，但是目前起点较弱，市场需要时间恢复。 从9月份会迎来春季，通常这个季节市场的活跃度会上升，这会给房地产市场对低利息有更好的信息反馈。 会更好的评估房地产市场的走势。
贷款市场
9月份贷款利息进一步下将，预测未来一年固定利息会进一步下降， 6个月和1年的利息会有大幅的下降。 4到5年下降会比较小
由于利息下降速度比较快， 大家不要着急锁定贷款利息。
我和我的团队会在临近的时候联系大家锁定利息。
大家有任何问题可以直接联系我们。
September passed quickly. And the biggest news in this month was the U.S. central bank cut the interest rate by more than expected. US Federal Reserve cut 0.5% to a range of 4.75%-5% amid decelerating inflation and slightly softer labour market date.
Prior to the US central bank’s rate cut, the Reserve Bank of NZ had already reduced the OCR by 25 basis points. Therefore, there is a possibility that NZ Reserve bank cut another 25 basis points on 09/10/2024. Everyone would keep an eye on the central bank’s announcement on October 9.
Looking at the loan interest rates in September, the four major banks have been gradually reducing the home loan rates. This is positive news for the Real Estate Market. As Interest rates decrease, the pressure of repayments will gradually lessen, and people will have more disposable income to spend, which is good news to NZ economy.
In my option, current home loan rates are still at a high point. Although the Reserve Bank cut the OCR to release the positive signal, it will take some time to reflect in the market.
The house market is currently in a sluggish period, but I believe that with the decrease in interest rates, the market will slowly recover.
Looking at home loan application to date, the number of first home loan buyers is dropping, more people are applying loans to purchase business, upgrading house, purchasing new investment properties and developing new properties.
People’s confidence in the house market is gradually shifting as the NZ Reserve Bank continues to cut the OCR.
Let us have a look the summary of House market
Summary
Our monthly Property Focus publication provides an independent appraisal of recent developments in the residential property market.
Property Focus
Housing market momentum continued to weaken in August, with no sign as yet of a flurry of sales following the RBNZ’s first OCR cut last month. Sales volumes remained weak, while inventories on the market rose further, suggesting that house prices are likely to correct further over the coming months in order to clear the backlog. However, anecdotal evidence has pointed to a pick-up in activity over recent weeks, and Barfoot and Thompson’s Auckland auction clearance rate has bounced, highlighting the risk that the housing market could be spurred back to life quickly as interest rates fall. Mortgage rates have continued to head lower over the month, driven by falls in wholesale rates as financial markets have ratcheted up bets that the RBNZ will step up the pace of OCR cuts to 50bp moves. That’s not what we’re expecting, but it’s worth remembering that faster cuts from the RBNZ would likely occur in response to the economy underperforming the RBNZ’s already low expectations. In that scenario, lower interest rates may not be the boon for the housing market that many assume.
Feature Article: Regional revelations
This month we look at housing market developments across 14 key regions. Now that interest rates are normalising after the post-COVID rollercoaster, regional over- or under-performance is worth investigating. We evaluate regional house prices, indicators of housing market tightness, key regional economic indicators, and regional measures of housing affordability. Most regional housing markets are currently on a loosening trajectory, though house price cycles have been far more pronounced in some regions than others. The West Coast takes the prize for the strongest performance, with house prices up around 65% from December 2019, while Auckland has seen the weakest growth, with prices up only around 10% over the same period. How does your region stack up?
Mortgage Borrowing Strategy
Mortgage rates fell further in September, led by the 2yr, with the median rate offered by the five largest banks down 0.2%pt to 5.79%, marking a cumulative fall of 1.22%pt since November. Our projections (based on our wholesale interest rate forecasts) point to further declines in fixed mortgage rates over the coming year, with larger falls expected in floating and 6mth rates, and lesser falls likely in the 4-5yr part of the curve. Many borrowers will be wondering if there’s merit in fixing one more time for a shorter term before fixing for a longer term later. With the 1yr 0.56% below the 6mth, and the 2yr 0.5% below the 1yr, both have their merits. Breakevens show that it might be a close call as to which will work out cheaper in the long run, and any decision is probably going to come down to individual risk appetite. We always see merit in spreading risk over several terms, especially since longer terms are cheaper.
9月份很快就过去了，这个月最大的新闻就是美联储将联邦基金利率下调了50个基点，因为在美国央行降息之前，新西兰央行已经下调了OCR 25个基点， 所以10月9号新西兰央行有可能会进一步下调OCR。 大家在10月9号留意央行的消息。
从9月份的贷款利息来看，四大银行都在慢慢的下调贷款利息。 这对房地产市场来说是利好的消息。 随着贷款利息的下调，人们还款的压力会慢慢减少， 人们会有更多的余钱去消费，这对新西兰的经济也是利好消息。
个人认为，目前利息还是处在高点，尽管央行下调了OCR释放了利好的消息，但是反映在市场上还是需要一段时间。 人们的消费欲望还是处在低点。
房地产市场目前还是处在低迷期，但是我相信随着利息的下降，房地产市场会慢慢恢复。
从贷款人群来看，首套购房者的数量在慢慢下降， 买生意，换房子，买投资房和开发的客人数量在慢慢增加。 人们对房地产市场的信心随着央行的降息在慢慢发生变化。
我会定期给大家做房地产市场总结。
我们来看看最新的市场总结
观察房地产市场的表现，我们主要是观察销售的天数，销售和房源的比例， 这些信息可以很好的反映房价的动态。
从8月份的住房市场来看，尽管过去几个月贷款利息有所下降，但市场的反馈还是很缓慢， 从数据来看房价环比下降了0.4%，这是连续4个月下跌，由于销售疲软和市场库存增加，预期未来几个月房价会进一步下跌。
8月份的销售量环比下降了3%， 仍远低于同期的长期历史水平。 这是因为过去一年销售疲软导致市场积压了大量待售房源。
8月份房产销售的天数持续增加，8月份增加了2 天，达到了48天，高于长期的平均水平39天
从8月份数据来看目前市场还是没有太多令人兴奋的消息， 9月份的数据是在央行调整OCR数据以后首个完整月的数据，可以给大家更多的信息。 目前经济学家预测房价可能会在年底触底，在2025年开始反弹。
从下面几个主要城市来看市场目前还处在低谷期。
从奥克兰市场来看，在高利息的影响下，中位的销售价格经历了很大的波动。 市场下跌了26%， 而全国是17%。 建筑许可数量大幅下降， 但是也慢慢恢复到疫情前的水平。 目前销售是时间超出了平均水平，销售也上市房源的比例在短期内会让房价进一步趋于平稳。
惠灵顿的住房变现在过去几年不如全国其他地区， 房价从高峰到低谷降幅达到24%，过去几个月房子销售天数增加。 建筑数量大幅下降。 经济指标走弱，失业率上升，房价的下跌改善了惠林顿的负担能力，房租的收入低于全国平均水平。
坎特伯雷的住房在过去几年变现做好，在低谷期下跌的不多。 目前房价的通胀处在正值区间。 坎特伯雷的经济表现也好于其他地区，这让房屋销售保持在接近趋势的水平。 失业率低于全国水平让人们可负担能力更好。
尽管贷款利息下降对住房市场来说是好消息，但是目前起点较弱，市场需要时间恢复。 从9月份会迎来春季，通常这个季节市场的活跃度会上升，这会给房地产市场对低利息有更好的信息反馈。 会更好的评估房地产市场的走势。
贷款市场
9月份贷款利息进一步下将，预测未来一年固定利息会进一步下降， 6个月和1年的利息会有大幅的下降。 4到5年下降会比较小
由于利息下降速度比较快， 大家不要着急锁定贷款利息。
我和我的团队会在临近的时候联系大家锁定利息。
大家有任何问题可以直接联系我们。
