10月份房市及利息走势分析报告
As we enter the final quarter of 2025, the New Zealand property market is gradually emerging from its winter slowdown. Overall, the market shows signs of a moderate recovery, though conditions remain largely in favour of buyers.
Recent surveys suggest that first-home buyers continue to be the main source of demand, while investor activity remains subdued.
Easing interest rates, more flexible lending policies, and lower housing cost inflation have helped to restore some confidence. However, employment uncertainty and political factors continue to limit short-term momentum.
Overall, the market is shifting from “stabilising at the bottom” to “a mild upward phase.”
Overall Market Conditions
A firm buyer’s market
According to NZHL’s latest survey of 253 agents, the residential market remains firmly buyer-led. Apart from a brief rebound in late 2023, this buyer’s market has persisted since the end of 2021.
Rising buyer activity
- Open-home attendance: 32% of agents reported higher visitor numbers (up from 28% last month) — the strongest result since February.
- Auction participation: 21% saw increased attendance, suggesting improving engagement and confidence.
Overall, market activity has been recovering since its low point in May. With one-year fixed rates now below 4.5%, the spring season is expected to further lift buyer interest.
First-home buyers leading the demand
More than half of agents (53%) observed an increase in first-home buyer activity.
Since early 2023, younger buyers have taken advantage of abundant listings, lower competition, and improved access to credit — a steady trend that continues to underpin demand.
Weak investor sentiment
Only 7% of agents reported more investor activity (down from 14% last month), while 21% said investors were selling properties.
Key reasons include:
- Rising rates, insurance, and maintenance costs
- Greater need to free retirement capital
- Lower expected investment returns
House Prices and Regional Trends
National price stabilisation
In September, the REINZ House Price Index remained flat (0.0% m/m) and slightly up +0.3% y/y.
Only 11% of agents reported falling prices (down from 13%), indicating the downturn has largely ended, entering a flat phase.
Buyers remain price-sensitive and pragmatic, often pausing when offers are rejected.
Regional divergence
- South Island: Best performance (+4% y/y), supported by population and income growth and a strong agricultural base.
- Auckland: Stable in recent months after a brief dip between May and July.
- Wellington: Declined again in September after six months of stability.
- Northland, Waikato, and Manawatū-Whanganui: Largely unchanged y/y.
Market Activity Indicators
- Sales volumes: Near long-term average but slightly lower recently, especially in Auckland.
- Listings: New listings remain steady; total inventory remains high.
- Sales-to-inventory ratio: Balanced, suggesting modest price movement through year-end.
- Days to sell: Median 44 days (seasonally adjusted), improving from 46 last year but above the long-term average of 40 days.
- Auction clearance: Rising, partly due to seasonal effects but also reflecting returning confidence.
Interest Rates and Lending Policy Environment
Interest rate outlook
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points in October to 2.5%, and ANZ expects a further 25 bp reduction in November to 2.25%, which is likely to mark the end of the current easing cycle.
If economic conditions weaken further, an additional 50 bp cut remains possible.
Housing-related inflation — including rents, insurance, and maintenance costs — has eased notably, reducing upward pressure on property prices and giving the RBNZ more flexibility in its policy stance.
Economist Tony Alexander noted:
While GDP is forecast to rise from −1% to +3%, it remains uncertain whether inflation can sustainably return to 2% as the RBNZ expects. With the labour market tightening again, inflation could re-emerge.
He suggests that if five-year fixed mortgage rates fall below 5%, it may be worth locking in longer-term rates as a hedge against future increases.
Easing of high-LVR lending limits
From 1 December 2025, the RBNZ will relax the proportion of high-LVR loans banks can issue:
- For owner-occupiers, the cap on loans of over 80% LVR will increase from 20% to 25%.
- For investors, the cap on loans of over 70% LVR will increase from 5% to 10%.
It means that banks will have greater flexibility to approve such high LVR loans.
However, given current buyer caution, this change is unlikely to trigger immediate price growth.
Outlook and Uncertainties
Forecast upgrades for 2025
Economists have revised 2025 price forecasts upward from 0% to +0.5% - 1.0% y/y, with 2026 remaining at +5.0%.
This reflects a mildly improving economy, lower OCR, and falling mortgage rates supporting gradual recovery.
Policy uncertainty: Capital gains tax proposal
The Labour Party has announced plans to propose a 28% capital gains tax on non-owner-occupied residential and commercial properties during the 2026 election, with implementation from 1 July 2027.
This potential policy could affect investor sentiment in coming years.
Summary
The New Zealand housing market is in the early stage of a moderate recovery.
Buyers continue to dominate, with first-home purchasers driving demand while investors remain cautious.
Prices are expected to stay stable in the short term and gradually rise over the long term.
With interest rates trending lower, LVR rules relaxing, and housing-cost inflation easing, fundamentals are improving — yet employment risks and policy uncertainty remain key factors.
进入2025年第四季度，新西兰房地产市场正逐步走出冬季低迷，整体呈现出温和复苏、买方主导的格局。多项调查显示，首次购房者仍是市场主要推动力，而投资者活动持续低迷。
利率下行、贷款政策放宽以及住房成本通胀减弱，为市场注入了一定信心；然而，就业不确定性与政治因素仍限制了短期内的上涨动力。总体而言，市场正在从“底部企稳”向“温和回升”过渡。
房地产市场分析
1.市场总体状况
-买方市场稳固延续
根据 NZHL 最新调查报告（253 份中介反馈），新西兰住宅市场仍由买方主导。仅 25% 的中介 表示卖家更希望促成交易。除 2023 年底短暂回暖外，买方市场自 2021 年底以来持续至今。
-买家活动增加、市场逐步复苏
开放看房：32% 的中介报告看房人数上升（较上月 28% 增长），为今年 2 月以来最强。
拍卖出席：21% 的中介报告参与人数上升，显示市场活跃度改善。
市场在 5 月触底后逐步恢复，随着 一年期固定利率降至 4.5% 以下，预计春季买家兴趣将继续上升。
-首次购房者主导市场
有 53% 的中介 表示首次购房者数量增加。自 2023 年初以来，年轻买家利用房源充足、竞争较少、价格相对低位及信贷条件改善积极入市，目前这一趋势仍稳固。
-投资者低迷
仅 7% 的中介 观察到投资者增加（上月为 14%），但有 21% 的中介 表示投资者正在出售房产。
投资者减少的主要原因包括：
- 地税、保险和维护费用持续上升；
- 退休资金需求增加；
- 投资回报预期下降。
2. 房价走势与地区差异
-全国房价企稳
9 月 REINZ 房价指数环比持平（0.0%），同比小幅上涨 +0.3%。
仅11% 的中介 认为房价仍在下降（较上月 13% 改善），显示市场下跌阶段已结束，进入横盘阶段。
买家仍倾向理性出价，议价空间存在，报价被拒后普遍选择观望。
-地区表现分化
南岛：表现最强，同比上涨约 4%，受益于人口与收入增长及农业强劲。
奥克兰：近月房价稳定（5–7 月曾短暂下跌）。
惠灵顿：连续六个月稳定后，9 月再度下滑。
北部地区（Northland、Waikato、Manawatu-Whanganui）：同比去年基本持平。
3.市场活跃度与交易指标
- 销售量：接近长期平均，但近月略降，尤其在奥克兰。
- 房源供应：新挂牌数量稳定，库存仍偏高。
- 销售量与库存比：保持平衡，预示到年底房价仍将温和。
- 销售周期：中位销售天数为 44 天（经季调），略优于去年平均 46 天，但仍高于长期平均 40 天。
- 拍卖成交率：呈上升趋势，虽有季节因素的影响，但也表明市场信心正在恢复。
贷款利率与政策环境
-贷款利率
新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）10月初降息50个基点（至 2.5%），ANZ 预计 11月将再降25个基点至 2.25%，这可能标志降息周期结束。若经济数据继续疲软，仍存在再降50点的可能。
同时，房屋持有成本（租金、保险、维护等）的通胀压力显著减弱，对房价的抑制作用正在下降，这也为进一步降息提供了空间。
经济学家 Tony Alexander 指出：
当新西兰 GDP 从 -1% 上升至 +3% 时，通胀是否能按照RBNZ在八月声明里提到的降至 2% 并长期稳定仍存疑。随着劳动力市场疲软迹象消退、资源趋紧，通胀可能再度抬头。
因此他建议，若贷款利率 5 年期低于 5%，他会考虑锁定5年的固定利率以对冲未来风险。
-高LVR贷款发放比例放宽
自 12 月 1 日起，RBNZ 将放宽银行发放高 LVR 贷款的比例限制：
- 银行可发放的 自住房超过 80% LVR 的贷款配额比例上限 由 20% 提高至 25%；
- 银行可发放的 投资房超过 70% LVR 的贷款配额比例上限 由 5% 提高至 10%。
这里的“配额比例”指的是银行在总放贷中可用于高 LVR 贷款的占比，即银行能提供高 LVR 贷款的机会增多。
不过，目前买家仍普遍谨慎，短期内不会带来房价的立即上涨。
未来房价预测与不确定性
-2025年预测上调：
经济学家将原先2025年“零增长”预测上调至同比 +0.5%～1.0%；2026年预测维持 +5.0%。反映经济温和复苏以及OCR持续下调及房贷利率下降对房市的支撑。
-政策不确定性：资本利得税预期
工党宣布将在 2026年大选 中提出对非自住房（住宅与商业）征收 28% 资本利得税。自 2027年7月1日起 生效。这一政策也许对投资者产生影响。
总结
整体来看，新西兰房地产市场处于企稳回升早期阶段。买方市场仍主导局面，首次购房者支撑需求端，投资者持续低迷。房价短期温和、长期有望稳步回升。在利率下降、LVR放宽、住房成本通胀缓解的背景下，市场基本面逐步改善，但仍需警惕就业与政策不确定性带来的潜在风险。
我们会在您的贷款临近到期时主动联系您，并根据当时的市场情况为您提供个性化的贷款重组建议。如您近期有购房、贷款重组或转银行的计划，欢迎随时咨询，我们将竭诚为您服务！
