10月份房市及利息走势分析报告
Summary
Due to the United States lowering its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in September, the NZ Reserve Bank also reduced the OCR by 50 basis points as expected on 09 October. The four major banks sequentially lowered their loan interest rates in October. More importantly, all four banks have also reduced their testing rates, which means people can borrow more money from banks to purchase properties, significantly aiding the recovery of house prices.
However, BNZ started implementing a DTI (debt-to-income ratio) lending policy last week. All applications for investors will be subject to funding approval where debt to income ratio is greater than 7 times. This policy does not apply to the following applications: Bridging loan, Refinance (dollar to dollar), and house under construction and turnkey.
As loan interest rates decrease, people can borrow increasingly larger amounts from banks to buy properties. To stabilize house prices, BNZ is the first of the four major banks to implement the DTI policy. As for whether ANZ, ASB, and Westpac will also implement DTI in the future, I will inform you in upcoming articles.
According to our company’s data, the number of clients purchasing investment properties has begun to increase, indicating that many investors are gradually returning to the market.
Currently, many clients are experiencing reduced repayment pressure following the interest rate cuts in September and October, which will provide them with more disposable income for consumption, thereby stimulating economic recovery.
Let us have a look at the October summary of property market
Property Market Outlook from ANZ
Property Focus
According to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand’s house price index, prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month in September, marking the first monthly growth since April. However, sales volumes remain weak, with a 2.3% month-on-month decline in sales numbers for September, still below historical averages.
The number of days to sell increased by 2 days to 48, which is higher than the average of 39 days. This data suggests that the market remains relatively loose. The increase in days to sell and the continuous rise in the number of listings typically provide a 3 to 6-month lead time for price momentum. Due to past weak sales and an increase in new listings, a backlog of inventory has accumulated in the market. The total number of listings is close to the highest level in a decade, and with buyers having plenty of choices, the current bargaining power lies with the buyers. The national sales-to-listing ratio indicates that market momentum is still on a downward trend.
In terms of interest rates, economists predict that the central bank will cut rates by another 50 basis points in November, bringing the OCR down to 4.25%. It is expected that the central bank will continue to lower the OCR in 2025, potentially down to 3.5%. This reduction in interest rates will enable people to borrow more from banks to purchase properties, thus gradually driving up house prices.
Regarding the unemployment rate, it is currently rising, which is a significant obstacle to real estate recovery and affects consumer confidence. The number of tourists visiting New Zealand has significantly decreased this year, indicating that the global economy is still in a downturn and people are hesitant to spend. This month, consumer confidence has declined again after three months of improvement, reflecting concerns about job insecurity.
Population growth is slowing down, and the poor labour market has led to a rapid decline in net migration inflows. It is predicted that by 2025, net migration numbers will fall to between 20,000 and 25,000, below the average level of the decade prior to the pandemic.
Regarding housing supply, the market's supply and demand are currently widening. The combination of a surge in immigration over the past two years and a slowdown in residential construction has led to a renewed widening of New Zealand's housing deficit, which will continue to push house prices higher in the coming years.
From a policy perspective, changes in policy and the ability to deduct loan interest from income have already begun to impact the market. Investors have started to return, and data shows that their share of loan applications has begun to rise, surpassing first-home buyers in August.
Overall, although there are still many challenges in the market, the outlook appears more positive with the decline in interest rates and the gradual recovery of the economy.
October and November are often peak seasons for real estate transactions each year. If the central bank continues to lower the OCR on November 27, the market recovery will accelerate, and by 2025, the market may gradually absorb the inventory, leading to a continued rise in house prices.
Everyone should pay attention to the central bank’s announcement on OCR adjustments on November 27. I will also provide regular market summary updates.
Mortgage Borrowing Strategy
Currently, interest rates are in a declining phase, and data shows that many people are choosing to lock in short-term rates. According to economists’ predictions, the rate of decline in loan interest rates will begin to slow down by mid-2025, at which point people may choose to lock in long-term loan rates.
However, during the period of falling interest rates, not everyone will be able to catch the bottom of the rates, so it is essential for everyone to lock in loans for different terms to mitigate risks.
由于美国在9月份下调了50个基点的基准利率，新西兰央行也按预期于10月9号将OCR下调了50个基点。四大银行在10月份相继降低了贷款利息。更重要的是，四大银行也纷纷下调了贷款的测试利率，这意味着人们可以从银行贷出更多的钱去购买房产，这对房价的回升是极大的助力。
然而，BNZ在上周开始实施了DTI（债务收入比）的贷款政策，针对于买投资房或者已有投资房的客人。如果客人的债务超过了收入的七倍，在BNZ贷款需要申请特殊批准。但这项DTI政策不影响以下贷款申请：过桥贷款（Bridging loan）, 同等金额转贷Refinance (Dollar for Dollar), 还有建房贷款和买新建房贷款。
随着贷款利息的下降，人们可以从银行贷出越来越多的钱去购买房产。为了稳定房价，BNZ是四大行中第一个开始实施DTI政策的。至于ANZ、ASB和Westpac是否会在未来也开始实施DTI政策，我会在未来的文章中告诉大家。
根据我们公司的贷款数据，目前购买投资房的客户数量开始增加，这表明很多投资者正在逐步回归市场。
目前，许多有贷款的客户在9月和10月银行下调利率后，其还款压力也开始逐渐缓解，这将使人们有更多的钱用于消费，从而刺激经济复苏。
10月份的房地产市场总结
根据新西兰房产协会的房价指数，房价在9月份环比上升了0.3%，这是自4月份以来首次实现月度增长。然而，销售量仍然疲软，9月份的销售数量环比下降了2.3%，仍低于历史平均水平。9月份的销售天数增加了2天，达到了48天，高于39天的平均水平。这些数据表明市场仍处于相当宽松的状态。销售天数的增加和市场挂牌数量的持续上升，通常对房价动能有3到6个月的提前预警作用。由于过去销售疲软和新增挂牌的增加，市场上已经积累了一批库存。目前的挂牌总量接近十年来的最高水平，考虑到买家有充足的选择，当前的议价权在买方手中。全国范围内的销售与挂牌比例显示，房市动能仍然处于下行趋势。
从利息来看，经济学家预测央行将在11月再进行一次50个基点的降息，使OCR降至4.25%。预计央行会在2025年继续下调OCR，可能降至3.5%。利息的下调将使人们能够从银行贷出更多的钱来购买房产，从而推动房价逐步上升。
关于失业率，目前失业率正在上升，这是房地产复苏的一个重大阻力，会影响人们的消费信心。今年来新西兰旅游的人数大幅下降，表明全球经济仍处于低迷期，人们不愿消费。本月消费者信心在经历了三个月的改善后再次下降，反映出人们对就业不安全的担忧。
人口增长正在放缓，劳动市场的不景气导致净移民流入量迅速下降。预测到2025年，净移民人数将降至2万到2.5万，低于疫情前10年的平均水平。
关于住房供应，目前市场供需正在扩大。过去两年移民的激增与住宅建设放缓相结合，导致新西兰的住房赤字再次扩大，这将使房价在未来几年持续上升。
从政策角度来看，明线的变化以及贷款利息可抵扣收入的政策已经开始对市场产生影响。投资者已经开始回归市场，根据数据，投资者在贷款申请中的份额开始上升，并在8月份超过了首次购房者。
总体来说，尽管市场还有许多阻力，但随着利息的下降和经济的逐步恢复，市场的前景显得更加积极。
10月和11月份往往是每年房地产交易的旺季。如果央行在11月27号继续降低OCR，市场的复苏将加快，2025年市场可能会逐渐消化库存，房价将会持续上涨。
大家要注意11月27号央行对OCR调整的信息，我也会定期为大家提供市场摘要的总结。
贷款市场
目前利息正处于下降期，从数据来看，很多人选择锁定短期利率。如果按照经济学家的预测，到2025年年中，贷款利息下降的幅度将开始减缓，那时人们可能会选择锁定长期贷款利率。
然而，在利息下行期间，并不是每个人都能赶上利息的底部，因此大家需要将贷款锁定为不同的期限，以规避风险。
