11,12月份房市及利息走势分析报告
November brought another 25bp cut to the Official Cash Rate (OCR), nudging floating rates slightly lower. However, fixed mortgage rates have largely held steady. After the sharp 50bp drop of OCR in October, wholesale rates have reversed course, rising from 2.63% to around 2.82%. This suggests that the scope for further reductions in fixed rates is becoming increasingly limited.
At the same time, major banks have launched short-term cashback offers of up to 1.5% to attract new customers. These promotions have significantly boosted application volumes, resulting in slower turnaround times.
Our office will be closed from 24 December to 7 January for the Christmas and New Year holiday period. Please plan ahead and contact us early if you have lending needs.
Wishing you all a wonderful Christmas and a very happy New Year!
Latest Housing Market Insights
Soft overall growth with clear regional divergence
Nationwide house prices slipped 0.1% in October, with annual growth moderating to just 0.3%—below earlier expectations.
• Wellington saw renewed weakness
• Auckland and northern regions were broadly flat
• The South Island continued to outperform, recording steady increases
Sales and new listings both rising
Seasonally adjusted sales rose in October, and new listings continued to climb, reaching their second-highest level since 2021. Because new listings are increasing slightly faster than sales, total inventory has reached a 10-year high, putting further pressure on price growth.
Key drivers of elevated listings include:
• Historically high levels of new housing supply, exceeding population growth for several years
• Outflow of residents selling homes before moving overseas
• Investors exiting due to higher holding costs (rates, insurance, maintenance), while rental growth remains muted or even negative in some areas
Indicators still point to a buyer-friendly market
• Sales-to-inventory ratio: Stable throughout the year, suggesting stable house market over the next 3–6 months
• Median days to sell: 45 days (vs long-term average of 40), indicating buyers retain the advantage
• Auction clearance rates: Improving gradually, showing early signs of returning confidence
Overall, the market remains well-supplied, price movements are modest, and conditions are balanced but still lean toward buyers.
Interest Rates and Outlook
OCR outlook
The OCR was reduced to 2.25% in November, and most economists expect it to remain unchanged through 2026. Inflation is projected to fall from the current 3.0% to 2.9% next quarter, and to around 2.2% in early 2026—close to the midpoint of the RBNZ target band.
With most of the easing cycle now complete, markets have begun discussing the possibility of rate hikes in the future. Some forecasts suggest small increases may begin in early 2027, though uncertainty remains high.
Mortgage rate outlook
Despite OCR cuts, wholesale swap rates have rebounded from 2.44% in October to around 2.82%. Wholesale rates are a key input in how banks price fixed terms, which explains why fixed rates have not fallen further.
Market sentiment is shifting from “rate cuts” to “rate stability and gradual increases.” Starting in 2026, mortgage rates are expected to trend higher in a slow, moderate fashion. For this reason, locking in part of your lending for 2–5 years may help manage future refix risk. A staggered structure can also offer greater flexibility.
House Price Outlook
Most forecasts point to modest house price growth of around 5% in 2026, supported by a recovering economy. However, several factors are expected to keep gains moderate:
• Strong construction activity and ample new supply
• Higher holding costs (insurance, rates, maintenance) weighing on demand
• Wider adoption of Debt-to-Income (DTI) restrictions, which may limit borrowing power for some buyers
• The end of the multi-decade global low-interest-rate era in 2021, removing a key driver of long-term price escalation
Summary
The housing market is stable, well-supplied, and showing mild, steady movements. Mortgage rates appear close to the bottom of this cycle, making it an opportune time to review loan structures and consider medium- to long-term fixed options.
As we head into the busiest period of the year for banks—with many lenders pausing certain pre-approvals—processing times are noticeably slower. If you are planning to purchase, refix, restructure, or make lump-sum repayments, please reach out early so we can help you avoid holiday delays.
11 月，OCR 再次下调 25 个基点，浮动利率也随之小幅下降。不过固定利率基本没有变化。虽然市场上仍有声音认为未来可能继续小幅下降，但从批发利率走势来看，自 10 月大幅降息 50 个基点之后，批发利率不降反升，从 2.63% 升至目前的 2.82%。这或许意味着未来房贷利率继续下探的空间有限。
与此同时，各大银行陆续推出 1.5% 的限时现金返还优惠以吸引新客户，进一步推升了最近的贷款申请数量。随着审批量激增，各家银行的处理速度也出现了明显放缓。
此外，本公司 12 月 24 日至 1 月 7 日将进入圣诞与新年假期，请大家提前规划好时间。如有贷款需求，请尽早联系。
提前祝大家圣诞节和元旦快乐！
最新房地产市场报告
整体房价增势疲软，各地区房价分化明显
10 月房价环比小幅下跌 0.1%，年度涨幅仅 0.3%，低于此前预测的 0.5%–1%。
惠林顿房价再次走弱；奥克兰与北部地区房价基本持平；南岛房价持续上涨，表现强劲。
销量与挂牌量双双上升
季节性调整后，10 月房屋销量有所增加；新增挂牌量也继续上升，是自 2021 年以来的第二高水平。由于新增挂牌略高于销量，库存量进一步上升，达到过去十年来的最高点。这也进一步抑制了房价的增长。
导致新增挂牌持续走高的原因：
- 新西兰的住宅建设量仍处于高位，新建供应多年持续高于人口增长
- 部分人口外流，离境者出售房产
- 投资者退出市场由于持有成本显著上升（地税，房屋保险和维护费用增长）, 以及租金增长疲软，甚至部分地区出现下跌，投资属性降低。
多项指标表明市场仍偏“买方市场”
销售量与库存比：全年保持稳定。 该指标是未来 3–6 个月价格走势的领先指标 ，这说明市场短期未来将保持平稳。
中位成交天数：45 天（长期均值为 40 天）， 这说明市场仍对买家有利。
拍卖成交率：略有改善，市场信心缓步回升
总的来看，房地产市场目前处于供给充足、价格温和、走势稳定的阶段。
利率走势与未来展望
OCR 利率走势
11月 OCR 再降 25 个基点至 2.25%。市场普遍预计2026 年全年 OCR 将维持不变。通胀预计从当前 3.0%将在下季度降至 2.9%，然后到2026 年初降至 2.2%（接近目标中点）。 降息空间几乎用尽，市场已开始讨论未来加息的可能性。一些机构预测 2027 年初可能OCR开始小幅加息，但此判断仍存在高度不确定性。
房贷利率走势
虽然 OCR 在降，但批发利率从 10 月最低点 2.44%已反弹至 2.82%。批发利率是银行定价固定贷款利率的重要参考指标，因此即使 OCR 降息，固定利率也未跟随下降。
市场认为降息已几乎结束，距离真正加息仍需时间。预计2026 年起房贷利率可能小幅、渐进式上升。所以是值得考虑锁定 2–5 年的较长期限。建议通过分散期限来锁定可以降低续期风险。
房价未来走势
市场预测随着经济复苏，2026 年房价会温和上涨约 5%。
房市表现温和的主要原因：
- 建房量持续强劲，新房供应充足，从而压制房价增速
- 保险、地税等住房持有成本上涨抑制房价
- DTI（债务收入比）即将被更多银行执行，这将限制部分买家的借贷能力
- 全球低利率时代已在 2021 年结束，不再支持房价长期快速上涨
总结
总体而言，房地产市场依旧保持温和运行，房价和交易数据都呈现稳定态势。房贷利率已接近周期低位，是规划贷款结构、考虑中长期固定利率的合适时机。
临近年底，各大银行任务激增，多家已暂停部分预批，整体处理时效有所放缓。如果您近期有购房、续期、重组贷款或提前还款计划，建议尽早联系我，以免受到假期和银行排队的影响。
Reference：Property Focus | For homeowners and investors
