5月份房市及利息走势分析报告
On May 28, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points, from 3.5% to 3.25%. In response, the four major banks also reduced their lending rates.
As interest rates fall, the property market is gradually recovering. Buyer confidence has improved, and we’ve seen a noticeable increase in mortgage applications. However, due to the surge in applications, loan processing times have significantly lengthened across all major banks.
To control risk and limit high-LVR (low-deposit) lending, both ANZ and ASB have tightened their lending criteria for borrowers with less than 20% deposit, raising income requirements and making it more difficult for some first-home buyers to get approved.
Meanwhile, Westpac is currently not accepting new pre-approvals from non-Westpac customers (except for Kainga Ora first-home buyers and construction loans). This shows banks are becoming more cautious and are prioritizing existing clients.
As a result, some first-home buyers may shift towards buying new-build turnkey properties, which often have more lenient lending criteria. This could further stimulate the new-build market and help developers sell their completed homes—an important signal for recovery in the real estate sector.
Overall, although lending policies have become more cautious, the rise in loan demand and transaction volume suggests the housing market is entering a slow but steady recovery.
May Market Overview
- First-home buyers feel less urgency to purchase due to more affordable renting.
- Weaker rental yields reduce investor interest in property.
Market Summary
Mortgage Rate Update
- Floating and long-term fixed rates decreased slightly.
- Short-term fixed rates (e.g. 1–2 years) remained mostly stable, having already dropped in earlier OCR cuts.
The market expects the OCR to fall by another 40 basis points, leading to further wholesale interest rate reductions. However, short-term mortgage rates are only expected to drop by an additional 10–20 basis points at most.
Opinions are divided on whether now is the best time to lock in long-term fixed rates—some believe rates are already low enough to consider fixing.
Conclusion
The next Reserve Bank decision will be announced on July 9—we’ll keep you updated.
When your fixed rate is nearing expiry, my team and I will contact you to help develop a suitable refinancing strategy.
央行在5月28日将官方现金利率（OCR）下调了25个基点，从3.5%降至3.25%。四大银行也纷纷下调了贷款利率。
随着利率的下降，房地产市场开始逐步回暖，买家的购房意愿增强，贷款申请数量也明显增加。然而，由于申请激增，四大银行的贷款审批流程明显变慢，整体审核时间有所延长。
为了控制风险并限制贷款申请人数，ANZ和 ASB 纷纷收紧对首付款不足20%的借款人的审批政策，提高了贷款门槛。这一变化使得首套房购房者，特别是首付不足20%的买家，面临更多挑战，不仅申请时间拉长，获批难度也有所增加。
与此同时，Westpac 目前仍暂停受理非本行客户的贷款预批准申请，仅对已有银行客户开放（Kainga Ora First Home Loan 申请者及建房贷款除外）。这也进一步反映出银行在当前阶段更趋谨慎，优先服务现有客户。
受上述政策影响，一部分首套房买家可能会被迫转向购买新建竣工房产，以符合银行较宽松的贷款审批标准。部分银行对新建房的贷款政策相对宽松，这或将进一步推动新房销售市场的增长。这是房地产恢复的重要信号，很多之前刚盖好的房子会慢慢被消化掉，房地产开发商的资金会慢慢回笼。
整体来看，尽管银行在放贷方面趋于谨慎，但从房贷需求回升、市场交易活跃度提高等迹象来看，房地产市场正处于逐步复苏的通道之中。
下面我们来看看5月份的市场总结
房地产市场分析
- 房价走势：缓慢上涨，动力仍有限
当前新西兰房市正处于逐步恢复中。4月房价再次小幅上涨。REINZ数据显示全国房价已连续6 个月上涨，4 月房价指数上涨了 0.4%，是近期涨幅最大的一次。不过，库存仍处于近十年高位，仍对房价上涨形成抑制。新房挂牌数量持续增加，为买家提供了更多选择，但也削弱了价格上涨的紧迫性。
- 销量：尽管4月略降，但总体已反弹约40%
虽然数据显示 4 月销量环比下降 3%，但自 2023 年初以来房屋销量已反弹约 40%，目前已接近历史平均水平。
- 销售天数：略有缩短，但仍高于平均
4 月房屋的中位销售时间从48 天缩短到 44 天，虽然有所改善，但仍高于历史平均值 39 天。
- 区域表现：南岛领涨，惠灵顿走弱
大部分地区房价呈上涨趋势，南岛表现尤为强劲，而惠灵顿则仍呈现下跌趋势。
- 租赁市场：租金通胀回落，购房动力减弱
租金通胀下降，对租客来说是利好，租房支出压力减轻。
但这也意味着：
首次购房者不会因租金高涨而“被迫买房”，购房的紧迫性减弱；
租金缺乏上涨，也削弱了投资者对房产投资的信心。
- 房屋保险：通胀放缓
房屋保险费用增长速度有所下降，不再像过去几年那样快速上涨，对房主来说是一种缓解。
- 市场总结
整体来看，房地产市场指标显示当前处于缓慢的复苏阶段。预计有意义的房价上涨将出现在下半年，前提是库存开始减少。目前全年房价涨幅预期为4.5%。
贷款利率分析
5 月贷款利率调整：
- 本月浮动利率和长期固定利率有所下降；
- 短期固定利率（如1 年、2 年）则基本持平，因其已在前几次降息中大幅下降；
市场预计 OCR 未来仍有 40 个基点的下降空间，批发利率也会相应下调。尽管未来利率仍可能小幅下行，但普遍预测短期贷款利率最多再降10–20 个基点。因此市场对“什么时候锁定长期利率最合适”存在不同意见。有人认为现在的利率水平已经足够低，可以选择锁定。
总结
当前新西兰房市处于缓慢增长阶段，利率下调对房价回升提供了支撑，但高库存与低迷的经济环境仍对市场构成压力。因此预计OCR可能进一步降至 2.85%。大家可以在7月9号关注一下RBNZ发布有关OCR的决策。我和我的团队会在贷款临近到期的时候和大家商量如何合理的锁定贷款。
