3月份房市及利息走势分析报告
Recent escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has triggered a sharp rise in global oil prices, which in turn is driving up the cost of everyday goods and production materials. As a result, inflationary pressure is increasing.
At the same time, mortgage interest rates have been rising over the past few months. With multiple external risks and market fluctuations unfolding simultaneously, many people are becoming increasingly concerned about the current economic environment and the housing market, leading to growing uncertainty.
Housing Market Analysis
Short-Term Price Increase, But Weak Long-Term Trend
According to key data, the seasonally adjusted Real Estate Institute of New Zealand House Price Index recorded a 0.6% month-on-month increase in February, which brought some short-term optimism to the market.
However, looking at a longer timeframe, house prices have been flat or declining in 8 out of the past 10 months. A single month’s increase does not indicate a sustained upward trend and is more likely a short-term fluctuation rather than a true turning point.
Other market indicators also confirm that the market has not yet recovered:
- The median days to sell increased from 46 to 48 days, indicating slower turnover
- New listings continue to exceed sales volumes, leading to rising inventory levels
- Auction clearance rates are declining, and the ratio of sales to listings remains weak
In addition, the continued rise in building consents suggests that future housing supply will increase further, placing additional downward pressure on prices. The supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to improve in the short term.
Regional Divergence: South Island Outperforms
New Zealand’s housing market continues to show significant regional divergence. The South Island has outperformed the North Island, largely due to stronger economic fundamentals driven by agriculture and tourism.
Over the past 12 months:
- South Island increased by 8.6%
- Canterbury increased by 3%
- Otago increased by 2.9%
In contrast, major North Island cities remain weak:
- Wellington decreased by 3.6%
- Auckland decreased by 1.9%
Early Signs of Economic Recovery, But External Risks Dominate
Despite overall market pressure, there are early signs of domestic economic recovery:
- Improving economic activity
- Gradual recovery in homeowner confidence
- Easing pressure in the labour market
- Continued growth in net migration, supporting housing demand
However, external uncertainty—particularly the Middle East conflict—has become the largest risk factor.
Rising energy prices are highly inflationary and tend to flow through to living costs, food prices, industrial materials, plastics, and so on.
Experts forecast that:
- Inflation could reach 3.6% by the September quarter
- GDP may decline by 0.7% for the year
In this environment, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is unlikely to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) prematurely, as this inflation is largely imported (cost-push inflation) rather than driven by domestic demand. Increasing rates could further weaken an already fragile economy.
Mortgage Rate Outlook
Even without central bank intervention, mortgage rates have already shown a self-driven increase.
Due to rising wholesale swap rates influenced by global events, major banks have lifted mortgage rates, with 1–3 year fixed rates increasing by approximately 0.06%–0.11%.
Given the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, further increases remain possible. This places additional pressure on borrowers and may continue to dampen housing demand.
In light of the current interest rate environment, experts suggest avoiding long-term fixed mortgage rates unless there are clear signs that rates will rise significantly beyond expectations. Otherwise, long-term rates may offer relatively poor value. For most borrowers, a two-year fixed rate is considered a balanced option, providing a good mix of value and certainty. With rates still below 5%, it can comfortably cover the next economic cycle while keeping repayment pressure relatively manageable.
For borrowers with a very low risk tolerance who prioritise repayment certainty, longer fixed terms may still be appropriate. On the other hand, those aiming to minimise borrowing costs may prefer shorter-term rates. Alternatively, a split-loan strategy—fixing portions of the loan over different terms—can help diversify interest rate risk while balancing cost and stability.
House Price Forecast
Based on current conditions, ANZ Bank New Zealand forecasts that:
- New Zealand house prices will decline by 2% in 2026
Future trends will largely depend on geopolitical developments:
- If the Middle East conflict escalates, house price declines could deepen
- If the situation stabilises in the near term, the market may recover more quickly
Looking ahead to 2027, a modest recovery is expected, contingent on reduced external risks and steady economic improvement.
Conclusion
Ongoing supply pressures, regional market divergence, and the inflationary and interest rate risks driven by the Middle East conflict have made the outlook for the housing market increasingly uncertain. For both home buyers and mortgage holders, it is important to take a rational approach to short-term market fluctuations, closely monitor global developments and interest rate movements, and avoid making decisions based on market sentiment alone.
We will proactively contact you as your loan approaches its review date and provide tailored restructuring advice based on the market conditions at that time. If you are considering purchasing a property, refinancing, or loan restructure, please feel free to reach out to us at any time—we are here to support you.
近期中东冲突持续发酵，直接引发全球油价大幅上涨，进而带动各类民生商品、生产物资物价同步攀升，国内通胀压力随之加剧。与此同时，过去几个月贷款利率已迎来连续上涨，多重外部风险与市场变动交织，让不少人对当下经济与房产市场充满担忧，恐慌情绪逐渐蔓延。
为了帮大家理清当前市场形势，下文将详细解读近期新西兰房市的具体变化、贷款利率的最新走势，客观分析市场现状，为你的购房规划与贷款决策提供参考依据。
房地产市场分析
2月房价短暂上涨，长期走势仍显疲软
从核心数据来看，经季节性调整后的REINZ房价指数，在2月实现了0.6%的环比上涨，这一数据让市场出现了些许乐观情绪。但拉长时间维度观察，过去10个月里，房价有8个月处于持平或下跌状态，单月小幅上涨根本无法构成持续上涨的趋势，仅仅是市场运行中的随机波动，绝非房市全面好转的拐点。
与此同时，房市交易活跃度的多项指标也印证了市场并未回暖：房屋售出周期从原本的46天延长至48天，市场去化速度放缓；新上市房源数量持续超过实际成交量，房屋库存水平不断攀升，供大于求的市场格局，直接对房价形成了明显压制；此外，通过拍卖成功售出的房屋数量持续减少，销量与库存的比值进一步走低，这些都是房市需求端尚未真正复苏的直观体现。
不仅如此，建筑许可数量的持续增加，也意味着未来一段时间内，市场将迎来更多新房供应，进一步压缩房价的上涨空间，供过于求的局面短期难以改变。
区域分化显著，南岛领跑北岛持续疲软
当前新西兰房市仍旧呈现出明显的区域分化特征，南北岛表现差距悬殊，核心原因在于两地经济基本面的差异。南岛依托农业、旅游业的产业优势，经济增长势头明显优于北岛，直接带动当地房产市场表现强劲。
从同比数据来看，过去一年南岛房价整体上涨8.6%，其中坎特伯雷地区上涨3%，奥塔哥地区上涨2.9%。反观北岛核心城市，表现则持续疲软：惠灵顿房价同比下跌3.6%，奥克兰房价同比下降1.9%。
经济利好因素初现，外部风险成最大变数
尽管房市整体承压，但新西兰国内经济已出现些许复苏迹象，为房市需求提供了一定支撑：经济逐步回暖，房主信心开始回升，就业市场压力有所缓和，同时净移民数量持续上升，带来了新增住房需求，这些因素都为房市注入了潜在的正面动力。
但外部不确定性因素，彻底打乱了房市回暖的节奏，中东冲突引发的能源危机，成为影响房市的最大风险点。近期国际能源价格急速上涨，而能源价格上涨具有极强的传导性，不仅会直接推高生活成本，还会带动食品、工业化学品、塑料等全领域商品价格上涨，引发全方位的通胀回升。
据专家预测，受此影响，今年9月季度新西兰通胀率将升至3.6%，全年GDP预计下降0.7%。面对这一局面，央行大概率不会提前上调OCR（官方现金利率），原因在于此次通胀并非经济过热导致，而是油价上涨引发的输入型通胀，此时加息只会进一步压制本就脆弱的经济，加剧经济下行风险。
房贷利率分析
即便央行不主动加息，房贷利率也已出现“自发性上涨”。受中东冲突影响，批发掉期利率大幅飙升，直接带动各大银行上调房贷利率，目前1年至3年期房贷利率涨幅已达0.06%-0.11%，且中东局势尚未出现明显降温迹象，未来房贷利率仍有进一步上涨的可能，这对购房者和房贷持有人来说，无疑是沉重的压力，也将持续抑制房市需求。
针对当前利率走势，专家给出了贷款建议：不推荐锁定超长期限房贷，除非后续出现利率超预期大幅上涨的信号，否则长期利率性价比极低。对于大多数借款人而言，2年期房贷是价值与确定性的平衡选择，利率仍低于5%，能平稳覆盖下一个经济周期，还款压力相对可控。
如果风险偏好极低，更看重还款确定性，可适当选择更长期限锁定；若希望降低贷款成本，可偏向短期利率；也可以采用多期限组合的方式，分散利率波动风险，兼顾成本与稳定性。
未来房价预测
基于当前市场与经济形势，ANZ给出了明确的房价预测：2026年新西兰房价预计下降2%。后续走势高度依赖中东冲突的发展：若冲突持续升级，能源危机进一步加剧，房价下跌幅度或将更大；若冲突能在未来一两个月内快速平息，市场有望更快回归稳定。而对于2027年，机构仍旧预测房价将迎来小幅上涨，但这一预期也建立在外部风险消退、经济稳步复苏的基础之上。
结论
供大于求的库存压力、区域分化的市场格局，叠加中东冲突引发的通胀、利率上行风险，让房市未来走势充满不确定性。对于购房者、房贷持有人而言，需理性看待短期数据波动，密切关注国际局势与利率变化，切勿盲目跟风判断市场走势。
我们会在您的贷款临近到期时主动联系您，并根据当时的市场情况为您提供个性化的贷款重组建议。如您近期有购房、贷款重组或转银行的计划，欢迎随时咨询，我们将竭诚为您服务！
Resources:
https://www.anz.co.nz/about-us/economic-markets-research/property-focus/
