6月份房市及利息走势分析报告
As we move into the second half of 2026, national house prices remain broadly stable, while the North and South Islands are showing different price trends.
On one side, housing market activity continues to cool, with both buyers and sellers adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach. This has constrained significant movements in house prices. On the other side, falling oil prices have improved economic confidence and eased market pressures, helping to lift previously pessimistic market sentiment.
At the same time, market attention has shifted back to the future path of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) — whether the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will raise rates, when any increase may occur, and how large it may be. These factors are likely to become key variables influencing the direction of house prices.
This report analyses housing market developments to date and the outlook for mortgage interest rates, providing reference points for home loan strategies, property purchasing decisions, and asset allocation.
Housing Market Analysis
Stable National Market with Continued Regional Divergence
The latest industry data indicates that national house prices have entered a broadly balanced and stable phase, with upward and downward pressures largely offsetting each other and little sign of significant short-term price movements.
The seasonally adjusted REINZ House Price Index shows that national house prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month in May 2026, while remaining 0.5% below the same period last year. Cotality data indicates that house prices declined by 0.2% in June compared with May and were 0.9% lower than in June last year. These movements remain relatively small, suggesting that the overall housing market is broadly stable.
However, regional market performance differs considerably, with a clear divergence between the North and South Islands. According to ANZ’s latest housing market report, Auckland’s house price index rose by 0.4% over the past three months, while remaining 2.1% lower year-on-year. Wellington also recorded a 0.4% increase over the past three months, but prices remained 3.4% below a year earlier. Its longer-term downward trend has yet to reverse, leaving Wellington among the weaker housing markets nationwide.
By contrast, the South Island market has maintained relatively solid upward momentum. In Canterbury, the house price index increased by 1.3% over the latest three-month period and by 2.9% year-on-year.
In simple terms, the current housing market is characterised by continued weakness in Wellington, broadly stable and fluctuating conditions in Auckland and other parts of the North Island, and stronger price growth across the South Island.
Housing Market Activity Cools as Multiple Factors Balance Price Pressures
The current stability in house prices largely reflects rising caution among both buyers and sellers. Slower market activity has offset both upward and downward price pressures.
Against a backdrop of heightened global and domestic economic uncertainty, buyers and sellers have become increasingly cautious in their decision-making, while overall market activity has continued to soften. National house sales declined by 2% from the previous month, indicating weaker buyer participation. At the same time, new property listings also decreased, suggesting that many sellers are choosing to delay selling and wait for greater market clarity.
In addition, the seasonally adjusted auction clearance rate has declined, while properties are taking longer to sell and market absorption has slowed.
The simultaneous caution of buyers and sellers, together with weaker transaction activity, has in turn reduced the risk of a sharp decline in house prices. On one side, underlying demand from first-home buyers and households seeking to upgrade continues to provide support to the lower end of the market. On the other side, sellers delaying listings has limited downward pressure on prices. These forces have largely offset each other, keeping national house prices within a stable range without a clear upward or downward trend.
The recent sharp decline in international oil prices has also become an important positive factor supporting housing market stability. Earlier tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, contributing to stagnant New Zealand economic growth in the second quarter and weakening market confidence. More recently, improved global oil supply conditions and easing tensions in the Middle East have driven oil prices lower.
The decline in oil prices has helped restore consumer confidence and offset some of the negative effects of broader economic uncertainty, providing additional support for a stable housing market.
OCR Rate Hike Expectations and an Upward Interest Rate Trend
ANZ noted in its latest report that although lower oil prices have eased inflationary pressures, the underlying case for OCR increases has not disappeared.
Before the increase in oil prices, the RBNZ had already assessed inflation as elevated and anticipated future OCR increases. ANZ previously forecast three 25-basis-point increases in July, September, and October, which would take the OCR to 3%.
However, the unexpected decline in oil prices has significantly reduced upward inflation pressure. The market increasingly believes that the RBNZ may not need to tighten monetary policy aggressively and could allow more time to assess incoming economic data.
Against this backdrop, ANZ continues to expect an OCR increase in July, although there is now less certainty around both the size of the increase and the pace of subsequent tightening. If economic data remains weak through the third and fourth quarters of 2026, the RBNZ is likely to slow the pace of rate increases.
Meanwhile, prominent economist Tony Alexander has stated in his latest report that the first OCR increase of the year may be delayed until September, later than ANZ’s earlier expectation of a July increase. Nevertheless, his report also indicates that New Zealand interest rates are expected to follow a gradual upward trend overall during 2026.
ANZ had previously forecast that national house prices would decline by approximately 2% in 2026, reflecting factors including expected interest rate increases, election-related uncertainty, and the oil price shock. With oil prices now falling, pressures on both the economy and the housing market have eased, significantly reducing downside risks to house prices. As a result, full-year housing market performance may prove stronger than previously expected.
Employment Confidence Remains an Important Factor for Housing Market Recovery
Although the housing market has stabilised and some pressures have eased, it remains some distance from a broad-based and sustained recovery. A key constraint continues to be weak confidence in employment and household income.
Tony Alexander has emphasised in his analysis that employment confidence is an important factor supporting housing market recovery. As labour market conditions improve and household incomes become more stable, buyer confidence is likely to recover more fully, helping to support demand from first-home buyers, owner-occupiers seeking to upgrade, and investors.
At present, employment confidence remains weak and is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term. With New Zealand’s general election scheduled for November, the market is widely expected to remain cautious while awaiting greater clarity around future government direction and economic policy.
This suggests that the housing market is likely to remain broadly flat and regionally divided for the remainder of 2026, rather than entering a nationwide recovery. A broader and more meaningful recovery in the New Zealand housing market is therefore more likely to emerge in 2027.
Mortgage Rate Analysis
Based on current OCR expectations, mortgage interest rates are expected to follow a gradual upward trend this year.
Recent movements in mortgage rates have been relatively limited, with some banks making modest reductions to short-term fixed mortgage rates. The main reason is that lower oil prices have contributed to a decline in wholesale interest rates, creating some short-term relief for borrowers.
However, from a longer-term perspective, the broader expectation of a gradual increase in the OCR remains unchanged. Market expectations for future rate increases have already been incorporated into pricing, which is why longer-term fixed mortgage rates remain significantly higher than shorter-term rates.
Fixing for a longer term currently comes at a relatively high cost, while short-term rates carry greater uncertainty. Against this backdrop, splitting a mortgage across different fixed-rate terms remains a reasonable approach to diversifying interest rate risk.
Summary
Overall, New Zealand’s housing market is expected to maintain a pattern of broad national stability and regional divergence during the second half of 2026.
Falling oil prices should help ease economic pressures and reduce the risk of further house price declines. However, inflationary pressures have not fully disappeared, and the OCR is still expected to follow an upward path. As a result, mortgage interest rates continue to face upward pressure, which may constrain housing demand and limit the scope for a stronger rebound in house prices.
迈入2026年年中，全国房价整体走势平缓，但南北岛各城市冷暖不均，区域分化鲜明。一边是交易市场持续降温，买卖双方观望情绪浓厚，制衡房价大幅波动；另一边是油价回落提振经济信心、缓解市场压力，让原本偏悲观市场情绪改善。与此同时，市场焦点再度转向OCR政策路径——是否加息、何时加息以及加息幅度，这将成为影响房价走势的关键变量。
接下来，本文会分析截止本月，房市变化以及贷款利率的走势，为购房者的房贷策略，置业与资产配置提供参考。
房地产市场分析
全国房市整体企稳，南北区域分化格局显著
最新行业数据表明全国房价已进入平稳制衡阶段，涨跌动能相互抵消，短期无大幅波动趋势。
经季节性调整的REINZ房价指数显示，2026年5月全国房价环比微涨0.3%，较去年同期小幅下降0.5%。 Cotality 统计数据表明6月房价环比5月回落0.2%，同比去年6月下跌0.9%。幅度很小，整体来看房市是平稳状态。
然而，区域市场走势截然不同，南北分化特征突出。根据ANZ银行最近房产报告里提供的最近三个月房价指数变化：奥克兰房价小幅上涨0.4%，同比下跌2.1%；惠灵顿近期房价同样环比上涨0.4%，但同比跌幅达3.4%，长期下行趋势尚未扭转，仍是全国房市的弱势区域。
与之形成鲜明对比的是南岛市场，上涨势头持续稳固。其中坎特伯雷地区近三个月房价指数涨幅达1.3%，同比涨幅高达2.9%。简单来说，目前房市呈现惠灵顿持续走弱、奥克兰及北岛区域平稳震荡、南岛上涨的差异化格局。
市场交易降温，多重因素制衡房价走势
当前房市之所以维持平稳横盘，源于买卖双方观望情绪升温、市场交易降温，对冲了涨跌两端的动能。
受全球及国内经济不确定性加剧影响，购房者与售房者决策意愿明显谨慎，市场整体活跃度持续回落。数据显示，全国房屋销售量较上月减少2%，反映出买家入市积极性降低；同时，新房源挂牌数量缩减，意味着多数卖家选择暂缓出售、观望后市。除此之外，季节性调整后的房屋拍卖成交率走低，房产成交周期拉长、去化速度变慢。
买卖双方同步观望、交易活跃度回落，反而缓解了房价大幅下跌的压力。一方面买家刚需、改善需求仍有支撑，托底房价底部；另一方面卖家暂缓出售，压制房价下行空间，相互制衡，最终让全国房价锁定在平稳区间，无明显涨跌趋势。
而近期国际油价大幅回落，成为支撑房市企稳的关键利好。此前中东局势紧张推升油价，导致新西兰第二季度经济增长陷入停滞，市场信心低迷；如今全球石油供应保障提升、中东局势降温，油价顺势下跌，有效修复了消费者信心，对冲了部分经济不确定性带来的负面影响，为房市平稳运行提供了支撑。
OCR预期加息，利率走势上升
ANZ银行在最新报告指出，即便当前油价回落缓解通胀压力，但央行加息逻辑并未消失。在本轮油价上涨周期启动前， RBNZ已预判通胀处于高位，并规划OCR加息。ANZ之前预测7月、9月、10月三次加息，每次上调25个基点，最终将OCR拉升至3%。
不过油价的突然下跌，大幅缓解了国内通胀上行压力，市场普遍认为央行无需激进加息，可预留更多时间观察经济数据。基于此，ANZ银行认为OCR仍会在7月进行加息，但加息幅度和之后的加息节奏的确定性有所降低。若2026年第三、四季度经济数据持续走弱，RBNZ大概率放缓加息步伐。
与此同时，知名经济学家Tony Alexander在其最新报告明确指出，本年度OCR首次加息时间或将延后至9月，晚于ANZ最初7月加息的预判。但报告说整体来看，2026年新西兰利率将呈现缓慢上行的整体趋势。
此前ANZ银行基于加息、大选、油价冲击等因素，预测2026年全国房价将小幅下跌2%。而目前油价回落有效缓解了经济与房市压力，房市下跌风险大幅降低，全年整体表现有望优于此前预期。
就业信心为房市复苏的重要因素之一
尽管当前房市企稳、压力缓解，但距离全面回暖、持续上涨仍有明显距离，核心制约因素是就业与居民收入信心不足。
Tony Alexander在其分析报告中强调，房地产市场的复苏，本质依托于居民的就业信心。只有就业形势向好、收入持续稳定，购房者的入市信心才会全面修复，刚需、改善、投资需求才会集中释放。
而目前市场就业信心持续低迷，且短期难以改善。结合今年11月新西兰大选的时间节点，市场普遍观望新政走向、经济政策调整，就业信心要到大选结束后才会出现明显修复。这也意味着，2026年剩余时间房市仍以横盘分化为主，难以出现整体性复苏，新西兰房市的全面回暖、真正复苏，大概率要等到2027年。
房贷利率走势
结合OCR预期，今年房贷利率将呈现缓慢上涨的趋势。
近期国内银行房贷利率波动较小，部分银行短期房贷利率出现小幅下调。核心原因是油价回落带动市场批发利率下行，短期释放利率红利。但从长期维度来看，OCR缓慢上行的大趋势未变，市场对未来加息的预期早已计入定价，因此长期固定房贷利率显著高于短期利率。
订长期利率成本会很高，短期利率确定性低。因此分期限锁定仍旧是一个合理分散风险的办法。
总结
整体来看，2026年下半年新西兰房市预计将延续“全国平稳、区域分化”的格局。油价回落有助于缓解经济压力，并降低房价进一步下行的风险；但在通胀压力尚未完全消退、OCR预测仍为上涨趋势，贷款利率整体仍面临上行压力，或将继续制约购房需求和房价反弹空间。
