6月份房市及利息走势分析报告
Summary
Due to weaker-than-expected data in the New Zealand real estate market in May, ANZ has revised down their forecast for this year's house price growth to 1%, from the previous expectation of 3%. After seasonal adjustments, the REINZ House Price Index decreased by 0.4% in May, with major city prices showing slight declines (0.1% in Auckland, Canterbury, and Wellington).
Increasing inventory indicates continued downward pressure on house prices. Sales-to-listings ratios reflect subdued market activity, although Auckland appears to have bottomed out recently. Housing supply remains a critical factor, with building permits showing stability after a previous steady decline.
The unemployment rate is expected to peak at 5.5% by the end of 2025, which poses challenges to housing affordability. Although migration continues to have a positive impact on the market, its influence is gradually waning.
Interest rates have remained relatively stable, with Westpac finally aligning its rates with other banks. The Official Cash Rate (OCR) remains at 5.50%, with economists predicting the Reserve Bank may begin cutting OCR rates from February next year, earlier than previously forecasted.
In July, new policies including the Debt-to-Income ratio (DTI) rules, a reduction of the bright-line test to two years, and a decrease in investment property deposit requirements to 30% (from 35%) come into effect. We will continue to update you on the impact of these new policies on the housing market.
Property market outlook
ANZ adjusted their forecast of a 1% increase in house prices this year. The balance of upside and downside risks is now more aligned. ANZ previously forecasted a 3% increase. This adjustment reflects weaker data in May and the assumption that house prices will remain flat over the next few months before gradually rising towards the end of the year.
For 2025, ANZ forecasts a 4% year-on-year increase (down from 5%) and maintains the previous forecast of a 5% increase for 2026.
According to ANZ's seasonally adjusted data, the REINZ house price index declined by 0.4% month-on-month in May. Price declines in major cities were relatively minor, with Auckland, Canterbury, and Wellington all seeing a 0.1% decrease month-on-month. Despite lower sales in May compared to historical averages, they were higher than the same months in 2022 or 2023.
Inventories continue to increase, indicating ongoing downward pressure on prices in the coming months. The sales-to-listings ratio remains a crucial indicator of housing market activity, reflecting both supply (new listings and inventories) and demand (sales). Barfoot and Thompson data for Auckland suggests the market bottomed out in recent months and is starting to rise again. Overall, however, the indicator remains at a subdued level.
The increase in the number of days it takes to sell a house also reflects the current state of the housing market, which remains on the "loose" side, although improving compared to the past. Based on a three-month moving average, it took an average of 2.7 days longer to sell a house in May compared to historical averages. In Auckland, this figure was 6.9 days longer than average, 0.7 days longer in Wellington, and 2.8 days quicker in Canterbury, indicating greater resilience in Canterbury due to population growth.
Housing Supply:
The total number of building consents issued has steadily declined but recently shows signs of stabilization. This trend is crucial if we hope to accommodate all these new migrants.
Rising Unemployment:
The unemployment rate is expected to peak at 5.5% by late 2025. In an environment of rising unemployment, job security may deter potential homebuyers, and potentially forcing some to sell their homes.
Net Migration:
Population growth supports the housing market, although this support is weakening. Current migration trends have less significant impacts on house prices compared to earlier periods due to policy changes and the composition of migrants. It's also worth noting that exporting higher-income workers could have a negative impact on house prices, despite positive net migration numbers.
Policy Changes:
The reduction of the Bright Line Test to 2 years will take effect in July, suggesting a potential increase in listings in the spring. Banks have also reduced the deposit requirement for investment property purchases from 35% to 30%, although high interest rates limit the stimulus this could provide to the market. Debt-to-income (DTI) limits are unlikely to become a significant constraint until interest rates decrease.
Overall, the housing market remains orderly, with stable but low sales, plenty choices for buyers, and sellers adjusting expectations to meet buyer demand. Current market conditions have not significantly worsened housing affordability and are not hindering potential OCR cuts.
Interest Rates Outlook
The mortgage rates in June remained unchanged compared to last month. While on the last working day of June, Westpac finally dropped their interest rates to align with the other banks. The OCR (Official Cash Rate) has also held steady at 5.50% since May last year. While the Reserve Bank's expectation is to lower the OCR from August next year, most economists now predict the OCR cuts to begin from February next year. This is earlier than what was forecasted a month ago. The earlier rate cuts are certainly good news for borrowers in terms of reducing interest expenses. The reason for these earlier cuts is the weaker economy, with hopes that lower interest rates may stimulate the economy to some extent. While there are no guarantees, there is growing confidence that the peak in mortgage rates has passed, and they are expected to decline over the next few quarters. Currently, borrowers are choosing to fix their home loans for six months or one year.
In July, several new policies (DTI, clear-line rule, LVR ratios) will come into effect, and we will continue to update you on the subsequent effects and trends.
总结
由于五月份的新西兰房地产市场数据低于预期，ANZ调整了他们对今年房价增长的数据，修正为1%，而不是之前预期的3%。经季节调整后，REINZ房价指数在五月份下降了0.4%，奥克兰、坎特伯雷和惠灵顿等主要城市房价则显示出轻微的降低（均为0.1%）。
库存的增加表明未来一段时间内房价还是面临持续下行压力。销售与挂牌比例反映出市场活动仍然低迷，尽管奥克兰最近似乎已经触底。
住房供应仍然是一个关键因素，建筑许可证显示出稳定，此前一直在稳步下降。
预计到2025年底失业率将达到峰值5.5%，这对住房可负担性构成挑战。尽管移民对市场仍有积极影响，但影响力逐渐减弱。
利率相对稳定，Westpac也终于调整了利息向其他银行看齐。OCR维持在5.50%的水平，经济学家预期央行明年二月可能开始进行降息，比之前的预期提前了。
七月份，DTI （收入负债比例）新政开始施行，明线法则降为两年，投资房首付比例调整为30% （之前为35%）。我们会继续向您更新新政策对房市及贷款的影响。
总体而言，房市保持稳定，销售低迷，买家有充裕选择，卖家则根据市场条件调整期望。大家对利率走势显示出谨慎乐观的情绪，基本选择六个月和一年的利息。
房地产市场总结
ANZ修改了他们对今年房价的预测为1%的同比上涨，因为上行风险和下行风险更加平衡，而不是之前预测的3%的上涨。这个调整主要考虑到五月份的数据较弱，以及假设未来几个月房价持平，然后年底逐渐上升。对于2025年，ANZ预计年同比上涨4%（之前为5%），并保持之前对2026年的预测，为5%的同比上涨。
库存继续增加，这表明房价的下行压力将在未来一段时间内持续。销售与挂牌房源比率是住房市场热度的一个重要指标，因为它反映了供应（新挂牌和库存）和需求（销售）的双重影响。根据Barfoot and Thompson的销售与挂牌数据, 奥克兰市场在过去几个月已经触底，并开始再次上升。总体来看，目前这个指标仍处于低迷水平。
房屋销售所需时间的增加也反映了全国住房市场的紧张程度，目前这一指标仍不乐观，尽管比过去有所改善。以三个月移动平均为基础，在五月份，销售一套房屋平均需要比历史平均值多出2.7天。在奥克兰，销售时间比平均值长出了6.9天，在惠灵顿比平均值长出了0.7天，在坎特伯雷则比平均值快了2.8天。这表明目前基督城的住房市场由于人口增长而显示出比其他地方更强的韧性。
住房供应：
颁发的建筑许可总数已经稳步下降，但最近显示出稳定的迹象。如果希望有望为所有新移民提供住房，所以这一趋势确实有必要出现。即使人们目前还没办法购买自己的房产，他们也需要有一个居住的地方。
失业率上升：
预测失业率将在2025年底达到峰值，预计为5.5%。在失业率上升的环境中，工作稳定性可能成为潜在购房者的阻力，而失业可能会使一些人陷入必须出售房产的境地。
净移民：
人口增长对住房市场是一种助力，尽管这种助力在减弱。目前的移民对房价的影响并不显著。另外值得注意的是，如果我们正在输出高收入工作者，那么净迁移对房价可能会是负面的影响，即使净迁移本身是正面的数据。
政策变动：
明线测试降至2年于七月开始生效。所以更多的挂牌房源可能会在春季出现。
银行在介绍DTI (收入负债比例) 限制的同时也相继降低了购买投资房的首付比例从35% 到30%。由于目前利息较高，降低首付比例并不会带给市场很大刺激，而DTI也只会在利息降低之后成为实质性的约束因素。
总体而言，住房市场保持有序，销售稳定但较低，买家有很多选择，卖家期望逐渐调整以迎合买家，利率保持相对稳定。目前市场对住房可负担性没有明显恶化，也不会阻碍OCR降息的进行。
利息走势
抵押贷款利率在六月份与上个月相比基本保持不变。但在六月的最后一个工作日，Westpac终于降低了他们的利息，向其他银行看齐。OCR（Official cash rate）也保持在去年五月以来的5.50%水平。尽管央行的预期是明年八月降低OC，但目前大部分经济学家预测央行将从明年二月开始降低OCR。这比一个月前大家的预测提前了。较早的利率削减对于贷款人在利息支出方面是个好消息。 不过较早削减的原因其实是经济疲软，希望利息的降低能在一定程度上刺激经济。虽然没有100%的保证，但人们越来越有信心认为抵押贷款利率的高峰已经过去，未来几个季度将会下降。目前大部分客人还是选择六个月或者一年期利率。
七月份是是几项新政开始实施的时候（DTI，明线法则，LVR比例），我们会继续为您更新后期走势。
Source: ANZ property Focus June 2024
