7月份房市及利息走势分析报告
New Zealand's housing market remained subdued through June, with house prices broadly stable, sales activity continuing to soften, and buyer caution persisting. Higher borrowing costs, uncertainty surrounding the upcoming general election and potential housing tax changes, together with ongoing geopolitical tensions and oil price volatility, continue to weigh on market confidence.
At the same time, regional performance remains uneven. Housing supply continues to favour buyers in most parts of the country, investor participation has eased, while first-home buyers remain the most active purchaser group.
This report summarises the latest developments in the housing market and mortgage interest rates, together with the key factors likely to influence the market over the coming months.
Housing Market Analysis
House prices remain broadly stable
New Zealand house prices remained largely unchanged during June. According to the Cotality Housing Value Index, national dwelling values declined by 0.2% over the month, 0.8% over the past three months, and 0.9% over the past year. National house prices also remain 17.5% below their historical peak.
Meanwhile, the REINZ House Price Index shows that national house prices fell only 0.1% during the first half of 2026. Prices increased by approximately 0.6% during the first quarter before easing by around 0.7% in the second quarter, leaving the market broadly flat overall.
Taken together, both indicators suggest that New Zealand's housing market remains in a period of limited price movement. Soft labour market conditions, inflation risks associated with geopolitical tensions and oil prices, together with uncertainty around the future path of interest rates, are expected to continue weighing on buyer confidence. Both ANZ and Cotality expect house prices to remain broadly stable, with only modest movements in either direction over the near term.
Sales activity continues to weaken while buyers remain in control
National residential sales totalled 6,829 properties in June 2026, including both agency and private sales, representing a 4.0% decline compared with June 2025. This marks the sixth consecutive month of annual sales declines.
During the first half of 2026, total residential sales were 4.2% lower than the same period last year, equating to 1,898 fewer transactions nationwide.
ANZ also notes that, on a three-month moving average basis, sales volumes are down approximately 6% year-on-year, reflecting softer buyer demand. Higher mortgage rates, weaker market sentiment following earlier oil price increases, and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election and housing policy continue to weigh on transaction activity.
On the supply side, the number of newly listed properties has eased below normal seasonal levels, with some vendors choosing to delay selling amid economic and policy uncertainty. Total listings currently stand at approximately 28,365 properties, down from 29,610 a year earlier. However, sales volumes have fallen faster than new listings, leaving buyers with a relatively wide range of available properties and maintaining favourable negotiating conditions for purchasers.
Regional performance remains mixed
Regional housing markets continue to move in different directions.
Auckland remains one of the weakest-performing markets. House prices declined 1.3% over the past three months and 2.8% over the past year. Higher average mortgage debt has made Auckland households more sensitive to rising interest rates, while slower net migration has reduced demand growth. In addition, Auckland has benefited less from the recovery in agriculture and international tourism than many regional centres. Strong housing construction over the past decade has also increased supply and continues to limit upward pressure on prices.
In contrast, Canterbury and Hamilton continue to record modest price growth. Christchurch house prices increased 0.4% over the past three months and approximately 3% over the past year, while Canterbury recorded annual growth of 3.2%. The region continues to benefit from strong agricultural income, improving international tourism and the ongoing economic recovery following the post-earthquake rebuild. Nevertheless, increasing housing supply and house prices that are no longer particularly low relative to incomes are expected to limit the pace of future price growth.
The Queenstown-Lakes District remains one of New Zealand's strongest-performing housing markets, with prices rising 3.9% over the past year and now sitting at approximately twice the national average. However, a substantial pipeline of new apartments, townhouses and residential developments is expected to increase housing supply over coming years. ANZ expects price growth for more standardised property types, particularly apartments and townhouses, to moderate, while premium homes in highly desirable locations are likely to continue benefiting from limited supply and sustained demand.
First-home buyers remain the most active market segment
First-home buyers accounted for 28.3% of all residential purchases during the second quarter of 2026, reaching a new record high and continuing to represent the largest purchaser group in the market. Increased housing supply and improved buyer negotiating power have created more favourable purchasing conditions compared with previous years.
Investor activity, however, continues to soften. The proportion of purchases made by multiple-property owners declined from 24.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 22.5% in the second quarter of 2026.
Several factors continue to reduce investor demand. Rental growth has slowed, limiting expected investment returns, while higher mortgage rates have increased financing costs. In addition, uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election and potential housing tax changes—including possible capital gains tax proposals, land tax discussions and changes to interest deductibility rules—has encouraged many investors to remain on the sidelines.
Mortgage Rate Analysis
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand increased the Official Cash Rate from 2.25% to 2.50%, signalling a renewed tightening cycle. While future policy decisions will remain data dependent, some market economists expect further OCR increases later this year, potentially taking the OCR towards 3.0%, which is generally regarded as a neutral policy setting.
Higher interest rate expectations are becoming one of the key headwinds for the housing market. Rising borrowing costs are likely to reduce housing affordability and continue weighing on both buyer demand and overall market confidence.
Mortgage pricing has also become increasingly differentiated across loan terms. Floating and shorter-term fixed mortgage rates have edged higher, two-year fixed rates have remained relatively stable, while longer-term fixed rates have eased modestly.
However, wholesale long-term interest rates have recently moved higher, suggesting longer-term fixed mortgage rates could increase again in the future. At the same time, a flatter mortgage yield curve has reduced the pricing gap between short and long fixed terms, giving borrowers greater flexibility when considering different fixed-rate options.
Summary
Cotality and ANZ expect New Zealand’s housing market to remain subdued through the second half of 2026, with regional performance continuing to vary. ANZ forecasts national house prices to be around 2% lower year-on-year by the end of 2026.
Higher interest rates, election uncertainty and continued housing supply growth are likely to keep both prices and sales activity relatively weak in the near term.
Looking ahead, ANZ expects a gradual recovery in 2027, with house prices rising by around 3%, although the overall market is still likely to remain relatively stable.
目前，新西兰房地产市场整体呈现房价小幅波动、成交量持续走弱以及观望情绪升温的特征。在利率上行压力、大选及住房税收政策不确定性、国际局势与油价波动等多重因素影响下，全国房地产市场总体保持平稳偏弱。与此同时，各地区市场表现继续分化，房源库存增加使市场进一步偏向买方，投资型购房者的活跃度有所下降，首次购房者仍是市场中的重要购房群体。
接下来，本文将梳理近期房地产市场及房贷利率的变化，并分析其背后的主要影响因素，为购房、贷款安排及资产规划提供参考。
房地产市场分析
房价横盘偏弱
6 月新西兰全国房产价值整体持平微跌。据 Cotality Housing Value Index 显示，全国房价 6 月环比下跌 0.2%，近三个月累计下跌 0.8%，近一年下降 0.9%。目前全国房价依旧比历史最高点低17.5%。
与此同时，ANZ 引用的 REINZ House Price Index 显示，2026 年上半年全国房价指数累计仅下跌 0.1%。报告指出，今年一季度房价曾上涨约 0.6%，但二季度回落约 0.7%，使上半年整体表现基本持平。
整体来看，新西兰房价仍处于窄幅波动、略偏疲软的状态。与此同时，国内就业市场偏弱、中东局势及油价波动带来的通胀风险，以及未来利率路径的不确定性，仍可能抑制购房需求和市场信心。综合ANZ与Cotality的判断，短期内全国房价出现大幅上涨或下跌的可能性均较低，市场预计将继续以横盘整理和小幅波动为主。
成交量持续下降，市场仍偏向买方
2026年6月，新西兰全国房产成交量为 6,829套，包括中介及私人交易，较2025年6月下降 4.0%，连续第六个月录得同比下滑。
从累计数据来看，2026年上半年全国房产总成交量较2025年同期减少 4.2%，累计少成交 1,898套，显示市场交易活跃度仍然偏低。
ANZ的补充数据显示，按三个月移动平均计算，近期房屋成交量同比下降约 6%，进一步反映买家购房意愿有所减弱。房贷利率上行、此前油价上涨对市场信心的影响，以及大选和住房政策的不确定性，均是抑制成交活动的主要因素。
供应方面，近期新增挂牌房源低于正常季节性水平，部分卖家也可能因经济及政策前景不明而暂缓出售。截至目前，全国在售挂牌房源约为 28,365套，低于去年同期的 29,610套。不过，由于成交量下降速度快于挂牌房源减少速度，市场上的可选房源相对于当前需求仍较为充足，买方的选择空间和议价能力依然较强，整体市场继续偏向买方。
区域市场表现持续分化
数据显示，近三个月奥克兰房价下跌 1.3%，过去一年下跌 2.8%。奥克兰市场持续偏弱，主要受到多重因素影响：当地平均房贷规模较高，因此对利率上行更为敏感；净移民放缓削弱了人口流入对住房需求的支撑；本地经济对农业和国际旅游业回暖的直接受益相对有限；同时，过去十年住房建设显著增加，较为充足的供应也持续限制房价反弹空间。
相比之下，基督城、汉密尔顿等城市房价维持温和上涨。其中，基督城近三个月房价上涨 0.4%，过去一年上涨约 3%；坎特伯雷地区年度涨幅为 3.2%。当地房市主要受到农业收入稳健、国际旅游业复苏以及地震重建结束后区域经济回升的支撑。不过，随着住房供应继续快速增加，加之当前房价相对收入水平并不特别低，未来大幅上涨的空间可能有限，整体走势预计仍以温和上行和逐步修复为主。
皇后镇－湖区房价长期保持强势，过去一年上涨 3.9%，目前已达到全国平均水平的约两倍，处于较高水平。不过，随着大量新建住宅、公寓和联排别墅进入规划及建设阶段，未来供应增加可能削弱房价继续快速上涨的动力。ANZ 报告认为，公寓和联排别墅等供应相对标准化的房产类型，未来涨幅放缓的可能性正在上升；而具有独特性、地理位置优越且供应稀缺的房产，若区域经济和人口继续快速增长，仍可能获得较稳定的需求支撑。
首次购房者占主导，投资者活跃度降低
2026年第二季度，首次购房者交易占比升至 28.3%，创下历史新高，继续成为当前房地产市场的重要购房群体。在房源供应较为充足、买方议价能力增强的市场环境下，首次购房者拥有更多选择，购房条件相较市场高位时期有所改善。
与此同时，多套房业主的购房活跃度继续回落。数据显示，2025年第四季度，多套房业主购房占比为 24.3%；进入2026年后连续两个季度下降，第二季度降至 22.5%，反映出投资者整体仍较为谨慎。
投资者需求减弱主要受到多重因素影响。一方面，租金增长放缓、房价升值空间有限，降低了投资回报预期；另一方面，房贷利率上行增加了持有成本。与此同时，大选及住房税收政策的不确定性，也使部分投资者保持观望，包括潜在的资本利得税、土地税，以及投资房贷款利息抵税政策可能调整等因素，均可能影响未来投资房的现金流和回报水平。
房贷利率走势
新西兰储备银行已将OCR由 2.25%上调至2.50%，货币政策重新转向收紧。RBNZ表示，未来数次会议仍存在进一步加息的可能，但具体时间将取决于通胀、经济活动及产能利用等数据表现。部分机构预计，央行将在9月、12月再度加息，年底有望将OCR上调至3%的中性水平。
利率上行预期正逐渐成为下半年房地产市场的重要制约因素之一。较高的融资成本可能增加借款人的还款压力，并继续抑制购房需求与市场信心。
当前房贷利率呈现一定的期限分化：浮动利率及较短期限固定利率中位数小幅上升，两年期固定利率变化不大，较长期限固定利率则有所回落。
值得注意的是，近期长期批发市场利率有所上行，未来长期固定房贷利率存在再次回升的可能。与此同时，房贷利率曲线趋于平坦，意味着选择较长期限固定利率所需承担的额外成本较此前有所下降，为关注未来利率上行风险的借款人提供了更多期限选择。
总结
综合 Cotality 与 ANZ 的月度房地产报告，预计 2026 年下半年新西兰房地产市场仍将维持平稳偏弱、区域表现分化的格局。ANZ 预计，至2026年年底，全国房价可能较上年同期下降约 2%。
短期来看，大选及潜在住房税收政策的不确定性、利率上行压力以及持续增加的住房供应，仍可能抑制市场信心和购房需求。因此，成交量和房价短期内出现明显反弹的可能性相对有限，市场预计仍将以横盘整理和小幅波动为主。
展望2027年，随着国内经济逐步复苏，房地产市场可能迎来温和修复。ANZ目前预计，2027年全国房价或上涨约 3%；不过，实际走势仍存在不确定性，房价跌幅和随后涨幅均可能小于当前预测，整体市场或继续呈现温和、低波动的运行特征。
Reference:
Property Focus | For homeowners and investors
Cotality monthly NZ housing chart pack
Cotality market update July 2026 — New Zealand Financial Services Group
