Monthly Report for July 2025

30/07/2025 10:57:22 - Comment(s) - By Pracca

7月份房市及利息走势分析报告

Despite growing speculation, the Reserve Bank kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged in July, and the property market continues to move cautiously. While overall sentiment remains subdued, mortgage activity is gradually picking up.

 

Due to increased demand, Westpac and BNZ are currently only accepting pre-approval applications from existing customers. ANZ and ASB still accept applications from new clients, but turnaround times have lengthened across all banks. If you’re planning to purchase a property, we strongly recommend getting your pre-approval organised as early as possible.

 

Although prices remain flat and buyer sentiment cautious, underlying data shows steady activity in lending and transactions. Should the market gain momentum again, the Reserve Bank may consider reintroducing DTI (Debt-to-Income) restrictions to rein in house prices.

 

In this update, we’ll take a closer look at the latest property market trends and mortgage rate movements.

 


Property Market Review

 

  • House Prices Remain Flat

The latest REINZ figures show that seasonally adjusted house prices fell by 0.3% in June, after a slight 0.1% rise in May. Over the past seven months, cumulative growth has been just 1.1%, suggesting prices are still in a consolidation phase.

 

That said, a few regions saw slight monthly gains:

Canterbury (+0.3%)

Waikato (+0.1%)

West Coast (+0.4%)

Otago (unchanged)

 

  • Strong Listing Volumes, Slight Dip in Sales

New listings remain high for this time of year, but sales have softened slightly. This could be due to declining stock in some regions or vendors pulling unsold properties from the market in anticipation of stronger demand later in the year. Still, the sales-to-listings ratio remains stable overall.

 

  • Sales Efficiency Lags

Homes are taking around 46 days to sell on average — still longer than historical  norms. Auction clearance rates remain between 35% and 40%, with no signs of a strong rebound yet.

 

  • House Price Forecasts Recalibrated

Economic forecasters are scaling back their expectations. ANZ now anticipates house prices will rise just 2.5% this year and 5% in 2026. Similarly, Westpac has revised its 2025 forecast down from 6.2% to 4%, although they still expect a 6% increase next year.

 

  •  A Different Perspective on Market Activity

While price trends and sales efficiency suggest a cooling market, veteran journalist David Hargreaves offers a different lens. Based on lending figures from the first half of 2025, he argues the market is more active than it appears:

- Home purchase lending totalled 44,728 loans — almost identical to the 44,150 in 2019

- Refinancing hit a record high of $11.06 billion

- First-home buyers borrowed over $8.5 billion, making up one-third of total mortgage lending

These figures suggest that although the market may appear calm, buyer and lending activity is quietly recovering beneath the surface.

 

Council Rates: Still Rising, But Slowing

Council rates are expected to continue rising, although the pace may ease slightly due to improving economic conditions.


• Average annual increases remain between 7% and 12%
• Most councils project ongoing annual hikes of 5%–7%

 

While not directly affecting loan approvals, rising council rates are factored into affordability assessments and contribute to the ongoing cost of owning a home. Combined with high living costs and elevated ownership expenses (maintenance, insurance, rates, etc.), this can dampen buyer confidence and reduce housing demand.

 


Mortgage Rate Trends

 

- OCR Cuts Still on the Horizon

The RBNZ held the OCR at 3.25% in July, adopting a cautious stance. The delay in rate cuts is likely due to concerns that easing too quickly could reignite inflation.


ANZ forecasts three more rate cuts of 25 basis points each — in August, November, and February — which would bring the OCR down to 2.5%. While lower interest rates generally support the housing market, economists don’t expect a sharp price surge in 2026.

 

- Fixed Mortgage Rates Hold Steady

• 1- to 4-year fixed mortgage rates remain largely unchanged
• 5-year rates have dipped slightly
• Floating rates show no significant movement

 

Despite expectations of a falling OCR, fixed mortgage rates are more influenced by global wholesale interest rates, which limits how far they might actually drop.


Borrowers looking to secure a lower rate still have time, but since it’s difficult to pick the exact bottom, splitting your loan across different fixed terms remains a smart way to manage rate risk.



Summary

 

The New Zealand housing market remains in a holding pattern midway through 2025 — with stable prices, moderate activity, and cautious buyers.

 

But it’s not all quiet: lending data shows healthy activity, especially from first-home buyers and those refinancing.


If the OCR is cut further and the economy stabilises, we could see confidence slowly return to the market.

 

Please keep an eye on the RBNZ’s next announcement on August 20 — it may offer clearer guidance on whether interest rate cuts are indeed on the way.




7月份OCR没有下调,新西兰房地产市场整体仍处于观望调整阶段。但是市场贷款的数量在慢慢增加。

 

由于申请人数的增加 Westpac and BNZ 目前只是接受本银行客人的贷款预批的申请,

ANZ 和 ASB 还是接受不是本银行客人的预批申请, 但是所有银行审核贷款需要的时间变长了。  大家如果有买房的计划一定要提前准备好预批。

房价温和波动,买家情绪谨慎,虽然市场尚未出现明显反弹,但在某些角度,交易与贷款数据也显示出一定活跃度。

如果市场开始变得活跃,那么央行可能会重新推行DTI的政策去控制房价。 

本期我们将为您分析最新的房市动态与贷款利率走势。

 

房地产市场回顾

 

-房价走势横盘,增长动能减弱

REINZ数据显示,2025年6月经季节性调整后的房价指数环比下降0.3%,5月仅上涨0.1%,七个月累计涨幅仅1.1%。房价缺乏上涨动力,反映出市场仍在震荡筑底阶段。

不过,虽然普遍地区房价都下降,但有个别地区房价表现相对可以:

Canterbury (+0.3% m/m),

Waikato (+0.1% m/m),

West Coast (+0.4% m/m)

and Otago (flat).

 

-房源供应充足,销量略降

6月份新增房源的数量依然处于该季节正常范围的高位。但是销量略微下降一点, 可能是区域性地区的库存正在减少,另一个可能是因为有卖家选择将未售出的房产暂时撤下市场,打算等到需求回暖时再重新挂牌。但总体来说,销售与挂牌比维持稳定。

-但销售效率仍较低

房屋中位售出时间为46天左右,持续高于历史长期平均。

拍卖成交率稳定在35%-40%,未出现明显回升信号。

 

-房价预期下调

ANZ在之前发布的6月份的property focus中已经下调房价涨幅预期为今年是2.5%,2026年是5%。 但是由于这个月份数据不乐观导致之前的房价涨幅预测可能又会进一步下调。同样的Westpac经济学家也下调了他们对于房价涨幅的预测:2025 年房价增长预测从 6.2% 下调至 4%,但仍预计 2026 年增长 6%。

 

-另一种角度下的市场表现

虽然从价格和销售效率来看市场整体偏弱,但资深财经记者 David Hargreaves 提出的另一角度值得关注。

他分析了2025年上半年抵押贷款数据后认为,市场实际活跃度已恢复至疫情前的“正常水平”,甚至在某些维度更高。例如:

  • 2025年上半年用于购房的贷款笔数为44,728笔,与2019年(44,150笔)基本持平;
  • 更换贷款银行(refinancing)所产生的新贷款达110.63亿纽币,创历史新高;
  • 首次购房者(FHB)贷款金额超过85亿纽币,占所有购房贷款的三分之一,显示FHB群体仍十分活跃。

这些数据表明,尽管市场表面平静,但贷款与交易层面的活跃度不可忽视,说明房地产市场仍在“低调复苏”。

 

市政税上涨速度放缓


市政费(Council rates)可能会继续上涨,但由于一些经济压力的缓解,上涨的速度可能会放缓。

  • 平均年涨幅为7%-12%;
  • 多数市议会预计未来几年仍将每年上涨5%-7%。

虽然市政税不会直接影响贷款审批,但它被纳入银行评估客户还款能力的标准之一,也会增加房主的日常支出。
在严峻就业情况,高的生活成本以及持有房屋的成本(包括维护房屋费用,房屋保险与市政税等等)叠加的环境下,这都会对买家信心造成影响,从而间接抑制房市需求。

贷款利率趋势分析


-OCR仍有下调预期

RBNZ在7月维持OCR在3.25%,转为观望态度。可能是因为RBNZ考虑到通胀回升的风险(降息可能会刺激通胀继续升高),因此他们选择延长降息速度。
ANZ预测:未来三次会议(8月、11月、明年2月)将分别再降息25个基点,最终OCR降至2.5%。这是为了推动经济复苏。虽然连续的降息会有利于房市的回暖,但是专家认为2026年房价并不会迅速上升。

 

-房贷利率无明显变化

  • 1至4年期固定利率本月保持稳定;
  • 5年期固定利率出现轻微下降;
  • 浮动利率暂无明显变动。

值得注意的是,虽然预测OCR持续下调,但由于银行房贷利率更多参考长期批发利率(受全球利率影响),实际下降空间相对有限。

对于想在更低点锁定利率的客户来说,仍有一定的时间可以等待利率触底。但是由于无法预估最终触底的时间,最保险是的将贷款分散锁定不一样期限来对冲利率风险。

 

总结


综上所述,新西兰房地产市场在2025年中依然处于价格横盘、销量温和、信心谨慎的调整期。
虽然房价增长乏力、销售效率偏低,但从贷款数据等结构性指标来看,市场似乎并非死气沉沉。

未来几个月,若OCR如预期持续下调,经济逐步回稳,市场信心有望逐步恢复。大家可以关注一下RBNZ在8月20号的 公告,看看OCR是否如预期一样下降。

我们会在您的贷款临近到期时主动联系您,并根据当时的市场情况为您提供个性化的贷款重组建议。如您近期有购房、贷款重组或转银行的计划,欢迎随时咨询,我们将竭诚为您服务!




Pracca

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