7月份房市及利息走势分析报告
Despite growing speculation, the Reserve Bank kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged in July, and the property market continues to move cautiously. While overall sentiment remains subdued, mortgage activity is gradually picking up.
Due to increased demand, Westpac and BNZ are currently only accepting pre-approval applications from existing customers. ANZ and ASB still accept applications from new clients, but turnaround times have lengthened across all banks. If you’re planning to purchase a property, we strongly recommend getting your pre-approval organised as early as possible.
Although prices remain flat and buyer sentiment cautious, underlying data shows steady activity in lending and transactions. Should the market gain momentum again, the Reserve Bank may consider reintroducing DTI (Debt-to-Income) restrictions to rein in house prices.
In this update, we’ll take a closer look at the latest property market trends and mortgage rate movements.
Property Market Review
- House Prices Remain Flat
The latest REINZ figures show that seasonally adjusted house prices fell by 0.3% in June, after a slight 0.1% rise in May. Over the past seven months, cumulative growth has been just 1.1%, suggesting prices are still in a consolidation phase.
That said, a few regions saw slight monthly gains:
Canterbury (+0.3%)
Waikato (+0.1%)
West Coast (+0.4%)
Otago (unchanged)
- Strong Listing Volumes, Slight Dip in Sales
New listings remain high for this time of year, but sales have softened slightly. This could be due to declining stock in some regions or vendors pulling unsold properties from the market in anticipation of stronger demand later in the year. Still, the sales-to-listings ratio remains stable overall.
- Sales Efficiency Lags
Homes are taking around 46 days to sell on average — still longer than historical norms. Auction clearance rates remain between 35% and 40%, with no signs of a strong rebound yet.
- House Price Forecasts Recalibrated
Economic forecasters are scaling back their expectations. ANZ now anticipates house prices will rise just 2.5% this year and 5% in 2026. Similarly, Westpac has revised its 2025 forecast down from 6.2% to 4%, although they still expect a 6% increase next year.
- A Different Perspective on Market Activity
While price trends and sales efficiency suggest a cooling market, veteran journalist David Hargreaves offers a different lens. Based on lending figures from the first half of 2025, he argues the market is more active than it appears:
- Home purchase lending totalled 44,728 loans — almost identical to the 44,150 in 2019
- Refinancing hit a record high of $11.06 billion
- First-home buyers borrowed over $8.5 billion, making up one-third of total mortgage lending
These figures suggest that although the market may appear calm, buyer and lending activity is quietly recovering beneath the surface.
Council Rates: Still Rising, But Slowing
Council rates are expected to continue rising, although the pace may ease slightly due to improving economic conditions.
While not directly affecting loan approvals, rising council rates are factored into affordability assessments and contribute to the ongoing cost of owning a home. Combined with high living costs and elevated ownership expenses (maintenance, insurance, rates, etc.), this can dampen buyer confidence and reduce housing demand.
Mortgage Rate Trends
- OCR Cuts Still on the Horizon
The RBNZ held the OCR at 3.25% in July, adopting a cautious stance. The delay in rate cuts is likely due to concerns that easing too quickly could reignite inflation.
- Fixed Mortgage Rates Hold Steady
Despite expectations of a falling OCR, fixed mortgage rates are more influenced by global wholesale interest rates, which limits how far they might actually drop.
Summary
The New Zealand housing market remains in a holding pattern midway through 2025 — with stable prices, moderate activity, and cautious buyers.
But it’s not all quiet: lending data shows healthy activity, especially from first-home buyers and those refinancing.
Please keep an eye on the RBNZ’s next announcement on August 20 — it may offer clearer guidance on whether interest rate cuts are indeed on the way.
7月份OCR没有下调,新西兰房地产市场整体仍处于观望调整阶段。但是市场贷款的数量在慢慢增加。
由于申请人数的增加 Westpac and BNZ 目前只是接受本银行客人的贷款预批的申请,
房价温和波动,买家情绪谨慎,虽然市场尚未出现明显反弹,但在某些角度,交易与贷款数据也显示出一定活跃度。
本期我们将为您分析最新的房市动态与贷款利率走势。
房地产市场回顾
-房价走势横盘,增长动能减弱
REINZ数据显示,2025年6月经季节性调整后的房价指数环比下降0.3%,5月仅上涨0.1%,七个月累计涨幅仅1.1%。房价缺乏上涨动力,反映出市场仍在震荡筑底阶段。
不过,虽然普遍地区房价都下降,但有个别地区房价表现相对可以:
Canterbury (+0.3% m/m),
Waikato (+0.1% m/m),
West Coast (+0.4% m/m)
and Otago (flat).
-房源供应充足,销量略降
6月份新增房源的数量依然处于该季节正常范围的高位。但是销量略微下降一点, 可能是区域性地区的库存正在减少,另一个可能是因为有卖家选择将未售出的房产暂时撤下市场,打算等到需求回暖时再重新挂牌。但总体来说,销售与挂牌比维持稳定。
-但销售效率仍较低
房屋中位售出时间为46天左右,持续高于历史长期平均。
拍卖成交率稳定在35%-40%,未出现明显回升信号。
-房价预期下调
ANZ在之前发布的6月份的property focus中已经下调房价涨幅预期为今年是2.5%,2026年是5%。 但是由于这个月份数据不乐观导致之前的房价涨幅预测可能又会进一步下调。同样的Westpac经济学家也下调了他们对于房价涨幅的预测:2025 年房价增长预测从 6.2% 下调至 4%,但仍预计 2026 年增长 6%。
-另一种角度下的市场表现
虽然从价格和销售效率来看市场整体偏弱,但资深财经记者 David Hargreaves 提出的另一角度值得关注。
他分析了2025年上半年抵押贷款数据后认为,市场实际活跃度已恢复至疫情前的“正常水平”,甚至在某些维度更高。例如:
- 2025年上半年用于购房的贷款笔数为44,728笔,与2019年(44,150笔)基本持平;
- 更换贷款银行(refinancing)所产生的新贷款达110.63亿纽币,创历史新高;
- 首次购房者(FHB)贷款金额超过85亿纽币,占所有购房贷款的三分之一,显示FHB群体仍十分活跃。
这些数据表明,尽管市场表面平静,但贷款与交易层面的活跃度不可忽视,说明房地产市场仍在“低调复苏”。
市政税上涨速度放缓
市政费(Council rates)可能会继续上涨,但由于一些经济压力的缓解,上涨的速度可能会放缓。
- 平均年涨幅为7%-12%;
- 多数市议会预计未来几年仍将每年上涨5%-7%。
贷款利率趋势分析
-OCR仍有下调预期
-房贷利率无明显变化
- 1至4年期固定利率本月保持稳定;
- 5年期固定利率出现轻微下降;
- 浮动利率暂无明显变动。
值得注意的是,虽然预测OCR持续下调,但由于银行房贷利率更多参考长期批发利率(受全球利率影响),实际下降空间相对有限。
对于想在更低点锁定利率的客户来说,仍有一定的时间可以等待利率触底。但是由于无法预估最终触底的时间,最保险是的将贷款分散锁定不一样期限来对冲利率风险。
总结
我们会在您的贷款临近到期时主动联系您,并根据当时的市场情况为您提供个性化的贷款重组建议。如您近期有购房、贷款重组或转银行的计划,欢迎随时咨询,我们将竭诚为您服务!
Resources:
Westpac lowers house price forecast | interest.co.nz
Council rates will continue to increase, but pace of increase should slow | interest.co.nz
House prices might be flat - but that doesn't mean the market isn't active | interest.co.nz