7月份房市及利息走势分析报告
In July, 4 main banks started to reduce the loan interest rates. Although the reduction is not substantial, but the frequency of cuts is increasing rapidly. That means the central bank may lower the OCR in November this year.
Also, NZ Government amended the CCCFA policy, Lenders will have more flexibility in how they determine whether lending is affordable, the 4 main banks adjusted their credit policy in July to make borrowing easier.
These changes indicate that the government and central bank are starting to stimulate the real estate market. However, interest rates are not expected to drop significantly, and the real estate market will recover gradually. Therefore, developers need to ensure to maintain sufficient cash flow to navigate the challenging period over the next two years.
Property market outlook
Property Focus
Economic data releases relating not only to the housing market but also the broader economy have been surprisingly weak over the past month or two. And that significantly raises the odds that the RBNZ has done enough to tame CPI inflation and can therefore start easing monetary conditions sooner than previously expected. We have brought forward our expectation for the first OCR cut to November (previously February), and would characterise risks as skewed to earlier than that, even. But when it comes to what this might mean for the housing outlook, it’s important to remember the “why”. Rates are expected to drop earlier because the economy is weaker than expected. And given there’s still residual softness to flow through to the labour market, the subdued outlook for household incomes, job security, and accordingly, the appetite to borrow is likely to contain any near-term resurgence in house prices. Accordingly, we’ve downgraded our near-term house price forecast, and now expect a 1% contraction in prices over 2024 (previous: +1%). However, it’s largely a timing story insofar as the weaker starting point means more scope for a recovery over 2025 as mortgage rates drop.
Feature Article: Crossing the Tasman
New Zealand citizen departures to Australia are picking up sharply as the local economy underperforms. With so many kiwis jumping the ditch, it’s worth asking what kind of housing market they might be jumping into. This month we open that can of worms to investigate that very question. While we don’t get all the way to the bottom of the can (this is a feature article, not a book), we discover a few interesting differences. And in terms of the relative housing outlooks, it appears that Australian house price inflation is set to outpace that in New Zealand for a little while yet.
Mortgage Borrowing Strategy
Mortgage rates have fallen materially over the past month, taking 1yr rates (on average across the main banks) below 7%, and 2-5yr rates below 6.50%. These moves follow even larger moves in wholesale interest rates, which have been driven lower by financial market expectations of just over 200bp of OCR cuts by the end of 2025. Our OCR forecasts aren’t quite as aggressive as that (we expect 200bp of cuts too, but starting in November rather than next month or in October, as markets are banking on), but either way, we are confident that wholesale rates will be much lower in a year’s time. That’s good news for borrowers, especially those who only fixed for 6 months or a year at their last rollover, or who have a legacy fixed rate rolling off soon. With larger falls in store, we think it still makes sense to consider fixing for a shorter period even though it costs a little more now, to save more money later.
7月份个人觉得是房地产市场从萧条转入活跃的节点，7月份各个银行都开始下调贷款利息， 虽然下调的幅度不大，但是下调的频率很快。这表明央行有可能会在今年11月份就会下调OCR。
由于政府改动了CCCFA的政策允许银行对贷款审批上有了更大的灵活度， 四大银行在7月份对贷款政策都相对应的做了调整， 让贷款更加容易。
这些调整代表政府和央行开始要让房地产市场开始活跃起来了， 但是贷款利息不会大幅下降，房地产市场会慢慢恢复， 所以开发商的朋友还是要确保保留足够的现金流来度过未来2年的艰难期。
下面是7月份的房地产市场总结
在过去2个月里，地产和经济出乎意料的疲软。 通胀已经得到抑制，那么央行可能会比之前的预期更早的下调OCR。 经济学家把下调OCR的预期从之前的明年的2月份提前到今年的11月份这是因为经济比预期的更加疲软。 2025年随着贷款利息的下降，那么房地产市场有更大的恢复空间。
从新西兰房地产协会的房价指数来看， 房价下降了0.3%。 这要比预期更加疲软。
- 房地产的销售量降到从1990年初以来同期第二低水平
- 新房上市的数量稳定，但是卖房的数量不多，所以价格疲软，价格的疲软会持续到今年年底
- 房屋在市场的停留时间增加了2天， 达到了44天，这高于历史平均水平。
- 奥克兰拍卖清盘率不佳，代表新西兰最大的房地产城市价格可能会继续下滑。
从BNZ 6月份总结的制造指数来看，新西兰制造业指数下降了5.5个点，这表达新西兰的制造业的放缓正在加速
- 服务业表现指数在大幅下降
- 消费者信心调查显示新西兰家庭对未来经济非常悲观， 节省开销，这会让很多商家的销售下降，成本的增加和销售的下降会让公司的利润下降。
- 企业对前景感到悲观，不愿意招聘，不愿意加薪或者投资。
- 从招人的广告数量来看，6月份招聘广告下降8%， 每个职位申请数量上升
- 5月份的移民数据显示，净移民人数下降到1400人，离境人数明显增加。
经济学家也对比了失业率和不良房贷的比例， 从数据来看随着劳动市场的降温， 越来越多的家庭面临着贷款压力的困难。
综合上面所有的数据，目前来看新西兰经济已经开始下滑。如果越来越多的人失业，不能支付房贷，那么整个经济会快速垮掉。 这不是新西兰央行想要看到的。
个人认为经济的周期都有滞后性的惯性， 新西兰政府发现经济正在快速下降，如果央行在11月份开始降低OCR 去刺激经济，那么经济不会马上停止下滑， 下滑的惯性持续半年以上。 那么就代表2024房地产还保持在低迷状态。 2025可能开始慢慢上升。
经济学家在这次的房产摘要里也提到了在5月前有大概14万人离开新西兰， 大约8.5万是新西兰公民，其中超过一半的人移居到澳大利亚。 离开的主要因素是因为新西兰的经济表现不佳。
澳洲的房价上升比新西兰更强劲， 所以就贷款负担的情况来看，新西兰的房子可负担能力更好。
个人认为很多人离开新西兰移民澳洲，主要是工资的差异， 教育的差异，投资的差异。 澳洲好的政策吸引了很多在新西兰生活很久的中产阶级。 房价的上升，经济的稳定离不开中产，一个人从毕业到中产需要大概10年的时间，中产的消费能力，上税能力也是最多的， 如果大量中产离开新西兰，对房价的影响会很持久。
当然新西兰政府修改了明线税法鼓励投资， 加强治安让做生意的人可以安心挣钱， 提高教育，医疗让人们可以得到更好的福利，降低个人所得税让人们可以花钱去消费。希望这些改变可以让更多中产留在新西兰。
贷款市场
从6月份开始，四大银行就开始下调了中长期贷款利息。 7月份下降的频率开始加快。
目前市场认为，11月份央行开始下调OCR。 预计在2025年底央行会下调200个基点。
有贷款需要renew的客人可以选择在接近贷款到期前再锁定贷款利息。
利息的下降会大大缓解大家还款的压力， 但是大家还是要做好预算，尤其是做生意的客人们， 因为经济的下滑会持续一段时间。
希望这次房产总结能帮助大家了解最新的信息，我和我的团队会定期给大家做总结。
In July, 4 main banks started to reduce the loan interest rates. Although the reduction is not substantial, but the frequency of cuts is increasing rapidly. That means the central bank may lower the OCR in November this year.
Also, NZ Government amended the CCCFA policy, Lenders will have more flexibility in how they determine whether lending is affordable, the 4 main banks adjusted their credit policy in July to make borrowing easier.
These changes indicate that the government and central bank are starting to stimulate the real estate market. However, interest rates are not expected to drop significantly, and the real estate market will recover gradually. Therefore, developers need to ensure to maintain sufficient cash flow to navigate the challenging period over the next two years.
Property market outlook
Property Focus
Economic data releases relating not only to the housing market but also the broader economy have been surprisingly weak over the past month or two. And that significantly raises the odds that the RBNZ has done enough to tame CPI inflation and can therefore start easing monetary conditions sooner than previously expected. We have brought forward our expectation for the first OCR cut to November (previously February), and would characterise risks as skewed to earlier than that, even. But when it comes to what this might mean for the housing outlook, it’s important to remember the “why”. Rates are expected to drop earlier because the economy is weaker than expected. And given there’s still residual softness to flow through to the labour market, the subdued outlook for household incomes, job security, and accordingly, the appetite to borrow is likely to contain any near-term resurgence in house prices. Accordingly, we’ve downgraded our near-term house price forecast, and now expect a 1% contraction in prices over 2024 (previous: +1%). However, it’s largely a timing story insofar as the weaker starting point means more scope for a recovery over 2025 as mortgage rates drop.
Feature Article: Crossing the Tasman
New Zealand citizen departures to Australia are picking up sharply as the local economy underperforms. With so many kiwis jumping the ditch, it’s worth asking what kind of housing market they might be jumping into. This month we open that can of worms to investigate that very question. While we don’t get all the way to the bottom of the can (this is a feature article, not a book), we discover a few interesting differences. And in terms of the relative housing outlooks, it appears that Australian house price inflation is set to outpace that in New Zealand for a little while yet.
Mortgage Borrowing Strategy
Mortgage rates have fallen materially over the past month, taking 1yr rates (on average across the main banks) below 7%, and 2-5yr rates below 6.50%. These moves follow even larger moves in wholesale interest rates, which have been driven lower by financial market expectations of just over 200bp of OCR cuts by the end of 2025. Our OCR forecasts aren’t quite as aggressive as that (we expect 200bp of cuts too, but starting in November rather than next month or in October, as markets are banking on), but either way, we are confident that wholesale rates will be much lower in a year’s time. That’s good news for borrowers, especially those who only fixed for 6 months or a year at their last rollover, or who have a legacy fixed rate rolling off soon. With larger falls in store, we think it still makes sense to consider fixing for a shorter period even though it costs a little more now, to save more money later.
7月份个人觉得是房地产市场从萧条转入活跃的节点，7月份各个银行都开始下调贷款利息， 虽然下调的幅度不大，但是下调的频率很快。这表明央行有可能会在今年11月份就会下调OCR。
由于政府改动了CCCFA的政策允许银行对贷款审批上有了更大的灵活度， 四大银行在7月份对贷款政策都相对应的做了调整， 让贷款更加容易。
这些调整代表政府和央行开始要让房地产市场开始活跃起来了， 但是贷款利息不会大幅下降，房地产市场会慢慢恢复， 所以开发商的朋友还是要确保保留足够的现金流来度过未来2年的艰难期。
下面是7月份的房地产市场总结
在过去2个月里，地产和经济出乎意料的疲软。 通胀已经得到抑制，那么央行可能会比之前的预期更早的下调OCR。 经济学家把下调OCR的预期从之前的明年的2月份提前到今年的11月份这是因为经济比预期的更加疲软。 2025年随着贷款利息的下降，那么房地产市场有更大的恢复空间。
从新西兰房地产协会的房价指数来看， 房价下降了0.3%。 这要比预期更加疲软。
- 房地产的销售量降到从1990年初以来同期第二低水平
- 新房上市的数量稳定，但是卖房的数量不多，所以价格疲软，价格的疲软会持续到今年年底
- 房屋在市场的停留时间增加了2天， 达到了44天，这高于历史平均水平。
- 奥克兰拍卖清盘率不佳，代表新西兰最大的房地产城市价格可能会继续下滑。
从BNZ 6月份总结的制造指数来看，新西兰制造业指数下降了5.5个点，这表达新西兰的制造业的放缓正在加速
- 服务业表现指数在大幅下降
- 消费者信心调查显示新西兰家庭对未来经济非常悲观， 节省开销，这会让很多商家的销售下降，成本的增加和销售的下降会让公司的利润下降。
- 企业对前景感到悲观，不愿意招聘，不愿意加薪或者投资。
- 从招人的广告数量来看，6月份招聘广告下降8%， 每个职位申请数量上升
- 5月份的移民数据显示，净移民人数下降到1400人，离境人数明显增加。
经济学家也对比了失业率和不良房贷的比例， 从数据来看随着劳动市场的降温， 越来越多的家庭面临着贷款压力的困难。
综合上面所有的数据，目前来看新西兰经济已经开始下滑。如果越来越多的人失业，不能支付房贷，那么整个经济会快速垮掉。 这不是新西兰央行想要看到的。
个人认为经济的周期都有滞后性的惯性， 新西兰政府发现经济正在快速下降，如果央行在11月份开始降低OCR 去刺激经济，那么经济不会马上停止下滑， 下滑的惯性持续半年以上。 那么就代表2024房地产还保持在低迷状态。 2025可能开始慢慢上升。
经济学家在这次的房产摘要里也提到了在5月前有大概14万人离开新西兰， 大约8.5万是新西兰公民，其中超过一半的人移居到澳大利亚。 离开的主要因素是因为新西兰的经济表现不佳。
澳洲的房价上升比新西兰更强劲， 所以就贷款负担的情况来看，新西兰的房子可负担能力更好。
个人认为很多人离开新西兰移民澳洲，主要是工资的差异， 教育的差异，投资的差异。 澳洲好的政策吸引了很多在新西兰生活很久的中产阶级。 房价的上升，经济的稳定离不开中产，一个人从毕业到中产需要大概10年的时间，中产的消费能力，上税能力也是最多的， 如果大量中产离开新西兰，对房价的影响会很持久。
当然新西兰政府修改了明线税法鼓励投资， 加强治安让做生意的人可以安心挣钱， 提高教育，医疗让人们可以得到更好的福利，降低个人所得税让人们可以花钱去消费。希望这些改变可以让更多中产留在新西兰。
贷款市场
从6月份开始，四大银行就开始下调了中长期贷款利息。 7月份下降的频率开始加快。
目前市场认为，11月份央行开始下调OCR。 预计在2025年底央行会下调200个基点。
有贷款需要renew的客人可以选择在接近贷款到期前再锁定贷款利息。
利息的下降会大大缓解大家还款的压力， 但是大家还是要做好预算，尤其是做生意的客人们， 因为经济的下滑会持续一段时间。
希望这次房产总结能帮助大家了解最新的信息，我和我的团队会定期给大家做总结。
