1月份房市及利息走势分析报告
The New Zealand property market continues to show overall stability as we move into 2026. Price movements remain mixed across regions, with buying and selling power largely balanced. At the same time, rising interest rate expectations, policy uncertainty, and changes in population flows are influencing on housing demand and investment decisions.
For clients with an LVR of 80% or below (including both new and existing customers), pre-approval is currently available with ASB, ANZ and Westpac. If you are considering purchasing a property, now is an ideal time to plan and secure pre-approval. Please feel free to contact us for assistance.
Latest Housing Market Insights
Price Trends: Flat Overall, Ongoing Regional Divergence
According to the latest House Price Index released by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), national house prices have broadly maintained the stable trend observed over the past three years. After seasonal adjustment, prices declined only 0.1% year-on-year, indicating that the market remains largely flat.
Regional differences remain pronounced. Wellington continues to weaken, with prices down approximately 4% over the past six months. Auckland has also seen modest declines, though losses have been relatively mild. In contrast, the South Island has demonstrated greater resilience, with Canterbury and Otago continuing to record price growth, supported by stronger regional economic activity and employment conditions.
Market Momentum: Supply and Demand Indicators Suggest Short-Term Stability
Several key activity indicators suggest limited upward momentum for house prices in the near term.
The sales-to-inventory ratio, which typically leads price trends by three to six months, is currently flat, indicating balanced supply and demand and limited room for short-term price fluctuations.
Median days to sell remain at 45 days, above the long-term average of 40 days, suggesting slower absorption rates and stronger buyer negotiating power.
Auction clearance rates are close to 40%, similar to previous levels, further indicating subdued overall market activity.
Taken together, these indicators confirm that the market remains firmly in buyer territory.
Demand Remains Constrained
Sales volumes improved modestly in late 2025 following several OCR cuts and lower mortgage rates. However, demand growth in 2026 faces multiple headwinds.
First, the monetary policy outlook has shifted. With inflation pressures rising, the Reserve Bank is expected to begin tightening again by late 2026. Mortgage rates have gradually moved off their lows, and higher borrowing costs are likely to weigh on both owner-occupier affordability and investor demand.
Second, policy uncertainty related to the general election, particularly discussions around capital gains taxation, may cause some buyers and investors to delay decisions, reducing market activity.
Additionally, population trends are contributing to softer demand. Net migration has declined, departures have increased, and some New Zealand residents are relocating to Australia for stronger labour market opportunities, resulting in weaker incremental housing demand.
Supply Remains Elevated
New listings continue to sit near decade highs, keeping inventory levels ample. Construction activity also remains relatively strong. Although building consents have retreated from the 2022 peak, per capita approvals are still above historical averages.
Higher-density developments such as townhouses now account for a larger share of new supply. Combined with temporarily lower financing costs and easing land prices, developers remain incentivised to bring additional stock to market. This steady pipeline of supply continues to cap price growth.
Investment Appeal Remains Limited
The relationship between mortgage rates and net rental yields remains a key measure of investment attractiveness. Currently, rental growth is moderate while mortgage rates are gradually rising, leaving net yields relatively unattractive.
This dynamic is expected to persist for some time and is likely to constrain investor participation.
Economic Recovery and Rising Inflation
Data from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) indicates that the economy began recovering in the second half of 2025, with GDP showing improvement.
However, recovery has been accompanied by stronger inflation pressures. Annual inflation reached 3.1% in Q4 2025, exceeding the Reserve Bank’s earlier forecast of 2.7%. Persistent inflation has brought forward expectations of monetary tightening, with markets now anticipating the first OCR increase by late 2026 rather than 2027.
Price Outlook and Interest Rate Strategy
Taking into account supply-demand dynamics, policy factors, and interest rate trends, the 2026 house price growth forecast has been revised down from 5% to 2%, suggesting continued stability. The 2027 forecast remains unchanged at 4.5%.
Mortgage rate movements have recently diverged. Fixed rates of 18 months and longer have increased by 20–45 basis points, while 6 months rates have fallen by 10 basis points. Floating and 1 year fixed rates remain largely unchanged. Given wholesale rate movements and tightening expectations, longer-term rates face further upward pressure.
In this environment, a diversified multi-term fixing strategy may help balance costs and manage risk.
Summary
The New Zealand property market is expected to remain low momentum through 2026. While economic recovery provides some support, rising interest rates, policy uncertainty, and softer demand continue to act as constraints. With supply and demand broadly balanced, price growth is likely to remain limited, and significant short-term gains appear unlikely.
We will proactively contact you as your loan approaches expiry and provide personalised refinancing or restructuring advice based on prevailing market conditions. If you are planning a purchase, refinancing, or loan restructures, please feel free to reach out at any time — we are always happy to help.
近期，新西兰房地产市场整体延续平稳运行态势。房价走势分化明显，买卖双方力量趋于均衡；与此同时，利率上升预期、政策不确定性以及人口流动变化，也正在对购房需求与投资决策产生新的影响。
目前 LVR ≤ 80% 的客户（包括新客户及现有客户），在 ASB、ANZ 和 Westpac 均已开放预批通道。如您近期有购房计划，现在是提前规划和申请预批的合适时机，欢迎随时联系我们。
春节将至，也提前祝大家新春快乐、阖家安康，万事顺心！
房地产市场分析
房价走势：整体横盘，区域分化延续
根据 Real Estate Institute of New Zealand（REINZ） 最新房价指数数据，全国房价整体仍延续过去三年的平稳走势。经季节性调整后，房价同比仅下降0.1%，显示整体市场基本处于持平状态。
区域分化趋势依然明显。惠灵顿房价持续走弱，目前较六个月前下降约4%；奥克兰价格亦小幅回落，但跌幅相对温和。相比之下，南岛地区表现更为稳健，坎特伯雷、奥塔哥等区域房价仍保持上涨，主要受当地较强的区域经济和就业市场支撑。整体来看，全国房地产市场呈现“北弱南强”的结构性分化格局。
市场动能：供需指标显示短期仍将平稳
多项衡量市场活跃度的指标显示，短期内房价难以出现明显上涨动能。
销售量与库存比率通常领先房价趋势约3至6个月。目前该指标基本持平，反映供需关系均衡，短期价格波动空间有限。
中位销售天数维持在45天，高于长期平均水平40天，显示房产去化速度较慢，买方议价能力仍占优势。
拍卖成交率接近40%，与此前水平相当，进一步表明市场整体活跃度仍然有限。
上述指标综合反映，当前房地产市场仍处于买方市场。
购房需求被压制
2025年末销售量曾因多次OCR下调以及房贷利率下调而出现小幅回升，但进入2026年后，需求增长面临多重限制。
首先，货币政策方向出现转变。随着通胀压力上升，央行预计将于2026年底启动加息周期。房贷利率已逐步脱离低位，融资成本上升将抑制购房能力及投资需求。
其次，大选带来的政策不确定性，尤其是资本利得税相关讨论，可能促使部分投资者与买家暂缓入市，从而降低市场活跃度。
此外，人口因素亦对需求形成制约。净移民人数回落，离境人数增加，部分新西兰居民因澳洲劳动力市场更具吸引力而选择外移，住房新增需求有所减弱。
房产供应仍处高位
新挂牌房源数量长期处于近十年高位，库存充裕。建筑活动表现活跃。尽管建筑许可数量较2022年峰值回落，但人均许可数量仍处于历史平均水平之上。
近年来高密度住宅（如Townhouse）建设占比提升，加之融资成本阶段性下降及土地成本回落，开发商仍具备一定开发动力，从而持续为市场提供新增供给。供给充足在一定程度上抑制了房价上涨压力。
房产投资吸引力不足
房贷利率水平与净租金回报率之间的关系，是衡量投资吸引力的重要指标。当前租金增长温和，而房贷利率逐步上升，净租金收益率相对缺乏吸引力。这一状况预计将在未来一段时间持续，限制投资型需求的扩张。
经济复苏与通胀上涨
New Zealand Institute of Economic Research（NZIER） 数据显示，2025年下半年经济逐步复苏，GDP表现有所改善。
然而，经济复苏同时伴随更高通胀压力。2025年第四季度通胀同比增长3.1%，高于RBNZ此前预测的2.7%。通胀持续高位运行促使央行提前加息预期。市场目前预计首次OCR上调时间将由2027年提前至2026年底。
房价预测与利率策略
综合供需、政策及利率因素评估，2026年房价涨幅预测已由此前5%下调至2%。预计整体市场将延续平稳走势。2027年房价增长预测不变，保持在4.5%。
在房贷利率方面，近期走势呈现分化：18个月及以上期限固定利率上升20–45 个基点，6个月利率下降了 10 个基点，浮动利率和 1 年期固定利率基本保持不变。考虑到批发利率及未来加息预期，长期利率存在进一步上行压力。
在此环境下，多期限分散锁定策略有助于平衡成本与风险。
总结
2026年新西兰房地产市场预计延续低动能特征。经济复苏提供一定支撑，但利率上升、政策不确定性及需求放缓共同构成阻力。供需关系整体平衡，房价涨幅有限。整体来看，市场趋稳运行，短期难现显著上涨趋势。
我们会在您的贷款临近到期时主动联系您，并根据当时的市场情况为您提供个性化的贷款重组建议。如您近期有购房、贷款重组或转银行的计划，欢迎随时咨询，我们将竭诚为您服务！
Resources:
https://www.anz.co.nz/about-us/economic-markets-research/property-focus/
