1月份房市及利息走势分析报告
Summary
From the data of the company in January, the number of customers buying investment properties and those taking out loans to purchase businesses are gradually increasing. This is because interest rates are slowly decreasing, and many investors are hoping to buy suitable investment properties before the real estate market recovers. With the reduction in loan repayment pressure, people are starting to increase their consumption, which is helping many businesses to slowly recover.
In January, the four major banks gradually lowered their loan interest rates. ASB and Westpac reopened pre-approvals for all customers. People are now able to borrow more money from the banks. The development market is starting to slowly become more active, but there is still a large amount of inventory in the market, and sales prices remain low.
Currently, there is an oversupply of two-bedroom townhouses in the market, so developers need to manage risks and maintain sufficient cash flow.
Let us have a look at the January summary of property market
Property Market Outlook from ANZ
Property Focus
The seasonally adjusted REINZ House Price Index lifted for a second consecutive month in December – the third lift in four months – signalling the housing market stabilised to end 2024. However, underlying momentum in the market certainly isn’t suggesting the market is about to take off, with improving sales volumes being offset by a large backlog of stock on the market. Investor activity continues to lift, while owner-occupier activity remains relatively subdued, a reflection of the lack of churn in the market amidst the stock overhang, which is reducing housing market mobility. We continue to forecast a 6% rise in house prices over the year ahead, made up of a slow start to the year and a more meaningful upswing in house prices in the second half of 2025.
Feature Article
House price forecast update Reflecting frontloaded OCR cuts, our expectation for a faster economic recovery from next year, and signs that housing market momentum is starting to shift, we’ve upgraded our house price forecast. While further falls are likely in the near term, we now expect house prices to rise 6% over 2025 (previously 4.5% y/y), and a further 5% over 2026. While lower interest rates and easing credit conditions are strong tailwinds for housing demand, the recovery faces plenty of headwinds too, with labour market conditions continuing to deteriorate, population growth slowing, and affordability stretched. With many moving parts affecting the housing market outlook, we see two-sided risks around our central forecast. In this month’s Feature Article, we detail the risks to our forecast by going through the each of the drivers of house prices in turn.
Mortgage Borrowing Strategy
The shape of the mortgage curve has changed quite markedly since our last edition of the Property Focus, with shorter-term rates lower, but longer-term rates higher, and the median floating rate unchanged. That was because most banks cut floating rates just as our last edition went to print, which was the day after the RBNZ last cut the OCR. But with wholesale short-end rates lower over the summer, while long-end rates have risen, mortgage rates have followed suit, as we discuss. While some borrowers may find higher 4 and 5-year rates frustrating, especially if they were of a mind to fix now that we are approaching the low point in the OCR cycle, we suspect most borrowers will still be looking to fix for 2 or 3 years, having learned how quickly things can change, and these rates are lower. We aren’t forecasting lower wholesale rates, largely because markets are already pricing in (or expecting) the OCR cuts we expect, and as such, anyone who wants to try to lock in at the bottom may want to start thinking about how much longer they want to wait. As always, fixing for a mix of terms is one sure way to spread risk and rule out the worst-case scenario.
1月份从公司的贷款数据来看，买投资房的客人和贷款买生意的客人的数量正在慢慢增加。 这是因为银行的贷款利息正在慢慢下降， 很多投资的客人想在房地产市场恢复前可以买到合适的投资房产。 随着还款压力的下降， 人们开始增加消费，这让很多生意也在慢慢恢复。
1月份四大行也慢慢的降低贷款利息，ASB 和 Westpac也开放了预批给所有的客人。 人们从银行也能贷到更多的钱。 开发市场开始慢慢活跃，但是目前市场库存还是很多，销售的价格还是不高。
目前2房的联排在市场过剩， 所以做开发的客人要控制风险和保留足够的现金流。
1月份的房地产市场总结
2025年迎来更稳定的开局
2024年12月，REINZ房价指数环比上涨0.2%（经季节调整），实现了连续两个月的增长，并在过去四个月内三次上涨，为2025年的逐步复苏奠定了基础。然而，市场的基本动力并未显示房价会迅速飙升，而更可能是随着下半年按揭贷款利率大幅下降，市场进入了稳定期。
房屋销售周期表明市场趋稳
房屋销售所需的在过去三个月维持在48天左右。
这一数值仍远高于长期平均水平39天，表明市场仍然较为宽松，但相较于2024年大部分时间的上升趋势，目前已趋于平稳。
随着销售活动的改善并逐步消化市场库存，销售天数将成为衡量市场是否进入“紧缩阶段”的重要指标。
销售增长带动市场稳定，但短期内难以推动房价大幅上涨
即使销售量回到较正常水平，过去几年积累的大量库存仍对房价形成压制，除非销售进一步上升。
全国房产市场库存量在2023年7月以来首次下降，但仍接近过去十年来的最高水平。
奥克兰的房产库存接近2011年以来的最高水平。12月库存下降的主要原因是新上市房源较少，而非销售大幅增长。
由于库存仍处于高位，短期内房价上涨的空间可能受到抑制。
库存积压的主要原因：自住业主的流动性受限
目前库存积压的一个重要原因是现有自住业主难以出售房产并迁居。
自住业主仍是市场上的主力买家，通常占新借款人数的70-80%，但由于他们通常拥有较高房屋净值，贷款金额较小，占总贷款价值的55-60%。
近年来，首次购房者数量稳步上升，但投资者活动在2023年底前受到贷款价值比（LVR）限制的影响而减少。
投资者活动回升，但仍低于十年前水平
尽管投资者活动有所增加，但仍远低于LVR政策出台前的水平。
不过，这一增长趋势表明投资者对房产投资回报的信心正在恢复，尽管相较于历史水平，租赁回报率仍然较低。
COVID疫情后的房价调整使得名义租金回报率（税前）恢复到上个十年末的水平，但与此同时，租金通胀已大幅放缓，而持有成本（如市政费、保险、维修等）却大幅上升。
租金增长大幅放缓，奥克兰租金甚至出现下跌
新租赁合同的年度租金涨幅已从2023年底的7%以上降至目前不到1%。
奥克兰的租金甚至同比下降约1%，出现租金通缩现象。
这一趋势部分反映了净移民流入的急剧下降
经济和房市已接近周期底部，预计将逐步复苏
新西兰央行（RBNZ）自2024年8月以来已累计降息125个基点，预计将在2025年2月再次降息50个基点。较低的利率和宽松的信贷环境已开始对房地产市场和整体经济产生积极影响，企业和消费者信心回升，消费支出也呈增长趋势。
然而，经济复苏不会立刻显现，市场仍面临以下挑战
- 库存水平仍然较高，可能限制房价短期内的上涨空间。
- 劳动力市场仍在调整，失业率上升，家庭消费信心尚未完全恢复。
- 房屋可负担性仍然紧张，这可能限制房价的进一步上涨空间。
贷款市场
1月份四大银行下调了贷款利息，但是美联储上周没有下调联邦基金利率。2月19号新西兰央行会宣布OCR的变动，大家可以留意。
今年贷款利息可能会达到最低点， 但是大部分的客人不能等到最低点，所以选择不同期限的固定利息组合是分散风险的有效策略
