Monthly Report for February 2026

This month, the housing market is still settling into a familiar rhythm: plenty of listings, broadly steady prices, and clear differences from region to region.

The Reserve Bank held the OCR unchanged this month, which gives borrowers a bit of breathing room. That said, the conversation in the market has shifted from “rates are falling” to “could rates rise later this year?” As a result, buyers are paying closer attention to borrowing costs and overall decision-making remains cautious.

Below is the view of the latest housing and mortgage-rate trends.

Latest Housing Market Insights

House Prices: Broadly Stable

At a national level, house prices are largely flat. Some forecasters have lowered their 2026 growth outlook (from around 5% down to ~2%), and new data suggests the chance of growth under 2% is increasing. The Reserve Bank itself has also suggested prices may be close to unchanged this year.

Recent price patterns support this: 8 of the past 9 months have been flat or down, implying a gentle downward drift of roughly 0.5% per quarter. In January, prices eased 0.2% month-on-month. Overall, the market still lacks a strong catalyst for a broad-based price lift.

Supply Is Rising, While Demand Is Softening

A useful early indicator for housing is the sales-to-inventory ratio, which often signals price direction three to six months ahead. Right now, that balance is telling a clear story: supply is building.

-New listings continue to rise

-Total stock remains high

-Auckland inventory is still increasing, while South Island stock has started to ease from elevated levels

According to Realestate.co.nz, February saw 12,252 new listings, up 7.8% year-on-year—the strongest February result on the platform since 2013. Total inventory has climbed to its highest level in nearly 11 years, reaching 36,357 properties for sale nationwide by the end of February. More listings mean more choice, and that typically strengthens buyers’ negotiating power.

On the demand side, sales activity has not improved at the same pace. Auction data supports this. Interest.co.nz reported that during the week of 21–27 February, 562 homes went to auction nationwide—the busiest week since late November. Of those, 219 sold, for a clearance rate of 39%, slightly below the 40%+ level that has often been seen since last August.

In other words, auctions are busier—but that appears to be driven more by more homes coming to market than a clear surge in buyer demand.

Recovery provides a floor, but not enough to drive a strong upswing

On the macro side, the economy is gradually moving from the post-pandemic inflation phase into a milder recovery. Several indicators have been steady: consumer confidence has lifted from multi-year lows, the labour market has improved at the margin, and net migration has begun to recover (though still low historically). Rents on new tenancies have also stabilised after last year’s decline, likely supported by improved rental demand as migration picks up.

These factors help provide a moderate underpinning for housing. However, that support is still being offset by high levels of supply, which keeps pressure off prices.

From a policy perspective, the RBNZ kept the OCR at 2.25% and noted that spare capacity should help inflation continue tracking back toward the midpoint of the 1%–3% target range. At the same time, it also signalled that a rate increase later this year remains possible—so market expectations for rates are starting to shift.

When you combine that with election-related uncertainty and reduced near-term investor appeal, it’s easy to see why buyers remain cautious. Overall, 2026 still looks more like a year of stability than a year of strong nationwide growth.

Regional Snapshot

House Price Index (YoY)

• Auckland: -2.6%
• Wellington: -3.5%
• Otago: +4.6%
• Southland: +12%
• Canterbury: +2.8%

Sales (MoM)

• Gisborne: -16%
• Manawatu-Whanganui: -12%
• Auckland: -7%
• Wellington: -2%
• Canterbury: -8%
• Otago: 0% (flat)

Overall, parts of the South Island remain relatively resilient, while Auckland and Wellington are still softer. Many regions are seeing lower month-on-month sales, which reinforces the view that buyers are staying cautious and regional divergence is likely to continue.

Mortgage Rate Trends

This month’s rate moves were split by term:

-6-month fixed fell around 0.20%

-1-year fixed was broadly unchanged

-18-month to 5-year fixed rates rose about 0.04%–0.20%

-Floating rates were unchanged

While longer fixed terms have edged up, locking in medium-to-longer terms can still make sense for borrowers who value certainty—especially if the OCR is expected to rise later.

Wholesale pricing expectations also suggest that the peak for 1–3-year terms next year may still sit below today’s 4–5-year fixed rates. For many borrowers, 18 months to 3 years continues to offer a strong balance between cost and certainty. And because the rate path is hard to call with confidence, splitting lending across different terms remains a practical way to manage risk.

Conclusion

In short, high supply and softer sales continue to keep the market buyer-friendly and limit upside pressure on prices. The economic recovery provides support, but expectations around future rate moves and election uncertainty are still encouraging a wait-and-see approach. Nationally, we expect prices to remain broadly stable in the near term, with regional differences continuing.

We will proactively contact you as your loan approaches expiry and provide personalised refinancing or restructuring advice based on prevailing market conditions. If you are planning a purchase, refinancing, or loan restructures, please feel free to reach out at any time — we are always happy to help.

Thank you for your trust and continued support.