2月份房市及利息走势分析报告
In February, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the OCR to 3.75%, mainly because inflation remains within the central bank’s target, currently at 2.2%.
The central bank aims to use this reduction in OCR to gradually support economic recovery. Although the unemployment rate is still high, it is expected to decrease gradually as interest rates fall and the economy recovers.
The central bank has indicated that further OCR cuts may be possible in the future to stimulate the economy. This is good news for borrowers, as household financial pressure will ease over time.
The four major banks have lowered both floating and fixed interest rates. This allows people to borrow more to buy property, which is also a positive sign for the recovery of the housing market.
Many developers are still waiting to see how the market develops, mainly because there is still a large inventory of properties left unsold from previous periods.
The number of first-time homebuyers has decreased significantly compared to 2022 and 2023. It is hoped that the government will ease immigration policies to help replenish the population.
Below is the property market summary of February from ANZ
The housing market started 2025 where it left off in 2024. House prices lifted
modestly in January, sales volumes dipped but the upward trend remains in
place. Supply is responding to firmer demand: new listings surged in January.
That will keep the level of stock on the market elevated and restrain house
price growth in the near term. We continue to expect momentum to build over the year ahead, with the recovery to accelerate in the second half of the year.
While purchasing affordability has improved, enabling a recovery, affordability
remains very stretched compared to history. That’s likely to limit the extent to which house prices can outpace incomes in the medium term, provided new housing supply picks up moving forward.
Mortgage Borrowing Strategy
Mortgage rates are lower across the board this month, with the exception of the 4-year, which didn’t change. The biggest falls were seen in floating and 2-year rates, which fell 0.50%pts and 0.45%pts respectively. These falls are likely music to the proverbial ears of borrowers, especially those who were on floating or a short-term rate, waiting for the opportunity to fix for longer at lower rates. The broad tone of personal financial media articles has shifted markedly over the past month, and having seen the latest falls, many are suggesting that mortgage rates may not go a lot lower, and rates just below 5% may be as good as it gets. While there are caveats (the future is always uncertain!), we generally, agree with the sentiment, and see merit in considering fixing a portion of debt for 2 years at current levels. Not only is the 2-year the low point; it strikes a good balance between being fixed for long enough to provide certainty and not being locked in for so long that you may regret it for some reason (e.g. were the economy to sour and interest rates keep falling). Based on our wholesale interest rate forecasts, we are projecting small further falls in mortgage rates, but we would note that margins are at the tight end of historic ranges, and as such, falls in wholesale rates from here may not have as much of an impact on mortgage rates.
2月份，新西兰央行降低了OCR到3.75%，这主要是通胀维持在央行制定的目标内， 目前通胀维持在2.2%， 央行也希望通过这次降低OCR让经济慢慢恢复。 目前失业率很高，但是随着利息的下降，经济的恢复，失业率会慢慢降低。 央行表示为了刺激经济，未来可能会再下调OCR。 这对很多有贷款的客人是很好的消息，家庭的压力会慢慢减弱。
四大银行目前纷纷下调浮动利息，和固定利息。人们可以从银行贷更多的钱去买房产，这对房产市场的恢复也是利好消息。
目前很多开发商还在观望市场，这主要是之前的市场库存还是很多， 首套购房者的人数比起 2022 和2023少了很多。 希望政府可以放松移民政策来填补流失的人口。
我们现在来看看房地产市场简介
REINZ （新西兰房产协会）的数据来看， 房价指数1月份上涨了0.1%， 这是连续第三个月的上涨。 这表明市场趋于稳定， 由于市场库存还是很多，房价预期会在年底晚些时候出现明显回升。
销售量呈上升趋势，销售量通常领先房价变化约三个月， 销售的上涨表明房价未来可能会上涨。
市场上新增的房源大幅增加， 这是自2015年同期最高的增加，这表明市场的流动性正在慢慢恢复。 （当热个人认为这也和Auckland 市政府提高土地的分割费用也有关系， 很多开发商希望赶在分割费用提高前把房子盖好）
从房产的销售天数来看， 1月份的销售天数是47天，这个数据还是高于历史的平均39天的数据。
房地产是新西兰重要的行业，牵动了很多产业， 通胀的稳定会让央行进一步的降低OCR， 央行在2月19号已经表示未来会继续降低OCR， 未来可能会有三次降息，OCR可能会到3%。 贷款利息可能会在年中降到5%以下。
从整体来看，目前房屋的供应量超过了需求，这放映了人口增长的放缓。
新西兰的人口的净流入大幅下降，是因为劳动市场的恶化导致的，很多人去澳洲寻找工作机会。预测经济会在2026开始慢慢恢复，劳动市场会慢慢复苏，这会让住房市场的需求增大。
总体来看
1月份房价小幅上涨，销售量有所下降，但整体上升趋势仍在延续。供应正在对更强劲的需求作出反应：1月份新增房源大幅增加。这将使市场上的库存量保持在较高水平，并在短期内抑制房价增长。仍预计未来一年市场动能将逐步增强，复苏将在下半年加速。尽管购房负担能力有所改善，推动市场回暖，但相较于历史水平，住房负担能力仍然高度紧张。这可能会限制房价在中期内超过收入增长的幅度，前提是未来新增住房供应能持续增加。
贷款市场
四大银行下降了贷款利息， 除了4年期利率未发生变化外，浮动利率和2年期利率分别下降了0.50个百分点和0.45个百分点。这些下降无疑是借款人的好消息，尤其是那些采用浮动利率或短期利率的借款人，他们正在等待有机会以更低的利率锁定更长期限。
目前来看，建议大家把贷款分散锁定在不同的时间段，因为以后的降息不会向前几次那么多， 当前的利差已接近历史区间的较窄端，因此此后的批发利率下降可能对抵押贷款利率的影响不大。
