8月份房市及利息走势分析报告
New Zealand’s housing market remained subdued in August, with property values edging lower and sales activity continuing to soften. However, market conditions varied across regions, with some areas showing greater resilience.
Higher mortgage rates, inflation and uncertainty ahead of the November general election continue to weigh on the market, particularly for property investors. Meanwhile, first-home buyers remain active despite the softer conditions.
This update provides an overview of the latest trends in the New Zealand property market and mortgage rates.
Property Market Overview
Property values: Nationally subdued, with clear regional divergence
New Zealand house prices have remained broadly flat, with recent data pointing to a modest softening rather than a broad-based downturn.
ANZ estimates that national house prices fell 0.2% over the first seven months of the year, while Valocity’s national index declined 1.1% over the latest quarter and 0.4% in the most recent month. Taken over a longer horizon, values have shown relatively little movement over the past three years.
The national picture, however, masks a wide spread in regional performance. Over the latest quarter, values fell 1.6% in Auckland and 2.5% in Wellington, while Canterbury was broadly unchanged, down just 0.1%. By contrast, Otago and Southland recorded gains of 0.5% and 0.7%.
Annual data from Cotality reinforces this regional split. Auckland values were 2.4% lower than a year earlier in July, whereas Christchurch recorded annual growth of 3.6%.
Sales activity softens, while first-home buyers remain a key source of demand
Housing market turnover has continued to lose momentum. Cotality reported that sales volumes in July were 6.4% lower than a year earlier, marking the seventh consecutive month of annual declines. The rolling 12-month total has also eased, slipping from 91,411 sales in December to 89,385.
While turnover remains reasonable by historical standards, the direction of travel has weakened. Cotality suggested activity may have been somewhat stronger without the uncertainty created by the US–Iran conflict, while rising mortgage rates are likely to remain a headwind for sales over the coming months.
Supply conditions are also becoming more favourable for buyers. Listings remain elevated for this time of year and are beginning to rise with the usual spring lift. Unless demand picks up at a similar pace, inventory is likely to stay high, keeping buyers in a relatively strong negotiating position.
First-home buyers are a notable exception to the broader slowdown. They accounted for a record 29.0% of purchases in July, and importantly, their actual number of transactions also increased. This suggests their growing market share reflects genuine strength in demand rather than simply weakness elsewhere.
Investor activity, by contrast, remains subdued. Higher mortgage rates, rising rates and insurance costs, and relatively modest rental yields have all put pressure on investment returns, making the current environment less attractive for leveraged property investors.
Rental market: Stabilising, but upside remains limited
The rental market remains soft, although recent data suggests conditions may be starting to stabilise. Stats NZ recorded a 0.8% annual increase in new rents in July, while MBIE tenancy bond data showed rents up 0.3% year-on-year over the three months to June.
Despite these early signs of improvement, the near-term outlook for rental growth remains restrained. Net migration has begun to recover, with fewer departures and a modest increase in arrivals over the year to June, but population inflows remain well below the levels that previously drove strong rental demand.
At the same time, housing supply continues to build. A total of 40,581 new dwellings were consented in the year to June, up 19% from a year earlier. Standalone house consents rose 17%, while multi-unit consents increased 21%. Auckland alone recorded 17,097 consents, up 20%, while annual consents in Queenstown-Lakes exceeded 2,000 for the first time.
With migration demand still relatively subdued and a sizeable pipeline of new housing coming through, any recovery in rents is likely to be gradual rather than sharp.
Mortgage Rate Outlook
Mortgage rates remain under upward pressure
Mortgage rates moved higher across the six-month to three-year terms in August, reflecting the rise in wholesale interest rates.
With two- to five-year fixed rates now sitting relatively close together, there is little additional cost in fixing for longer. That said, a longer term does not necessarily offer the best value.
ANZ’s breakeven analysis suggests that two consecutive one-year fixes could still prove cheaper than fixing for two years today, based on current pricing. This makes the one-year term a reasonable middle ground for borrowers seeking some certainty without locking in for too long.
The outlook, however, remains uncertain. The OCR was raised by 25 basis points in both July and September, and ANZ expects further tightening to take it towards a neutral level of around 3%. Markets are also pricing the possibility of another increase later in the year.
For borrowers, the trade-off remains between near-term flexibility and longer-term certainty, with the right choice depending on individual circumstances and tolerance for interest-rate risk.
Election uncertainty adds another headwind
The November general election is adding another layer of uncertainty to an already cautious housing market.
Potential changes to property taxation—including a capital gains tax, limits on interest deductibility for investors and a possible land tax—have all been part of the policy debate. While the final shape of any changes remains uncertain, the prospect alone may be enough to keep some buyers, particularly investors, on the sidelines until the policy outlook becomes clearer.
Any material tightening of property-related tax settings could add further pressure to house prices. That said, an improving domestic economy may provide some offset to the drag from higher interest rates and election uncertainty.
Outlook: Weak through 2026, with a modest recovery expected in 2027
The housing market is likely to remain soft through the rest of 2026, with high borrowing costs and subdued demand continuing to limit price growth.
ANZ now expects national house prices to fall by around 1% in 2026 before rising by about 2% in 2027, following a recent downgrade to its forecasts.
The revised outlook points to a market that remains under pressure rather than one facing a sharp correction. At the same time, a meaningful recovery is unlikely until borrowing costs ease and broader economic conditions improve.
Summary
New Zealand’s housing market remains subdued, with higher mortgage rates, elevated listings and election-related uncertainty continuing to weigh on activity.
However, conditions are not uniformly weak. First-home buyers remain a strong presence in the market, while some regions continue to show resilience despite the softer national picture.
Looking ahead, a strong near-term rebound appears unlikely, but a gradual improvement in economic conditions could set the stage for a modest housing market recovery in 2027.
8月新西兰房产市场整体呈现温和走弱、区域分化的格局。全国房价小幅回落，房屋成交量持续收缩。高房贷利率、通胀高位运行、就业市场走弱，叠加11月大选临近带来的房产税收政策不确定性，持续压制市场需求，房产投资者受影响尤为明显。
但市场并非全盘下行：首次购房群体逆势保持较高活跃度，新房建设供应持续释放，南岛部分区域房价展现韧性。机构普遍判断，2026年房市整体偏于承压，若后续经济稳步修复，2027年市场有望迎来温和回暖。
接下来，本文将梳理近期房地产市场及房贷利率的变化，为购房、贷款安排及资产规划提供参考。
房地产市场分析
房价表现：整体微降，区域分化明显
全国房价整体走势平缓，仅出现小幅下行，但不同地区受本地经济、就业、人口因素影响，走势差异十分明显。
ANZ统计显示，截至7月，本年度全国房价累计下跌0.2%。Valocity房价指数同样印证市场偏弱，本季度全国指数下跌1.1%，单月环比下降0.4%，过去三年房价基本处于横盘震荡状态。
不过，各地区表现仍然存在明显差异。Valocity 数据显示，Auckland 季度下降 1.6%，Wellington 下降 2.5%，Canterbury 微降 0.1%；相比之下，Otago 和 Southland 分别上涨 0.5% 和 0.7%。Cotality年度数据也体现出明显的区域分化：截至7月过去一年，奥克兰房产价值下滑2.4%，基督城却实现3.6%的年度增长。
市场成交：成交量持续下滑，首次购房者逆势增长
除了房价之外，房屋成交活动也有所放缓。
Cotality 数据显示，7月房屋成交量较去年同期下滑6.4%，为成交量连续第7个月走低。过去12个月累计成交由去年12月高点91411套回落至89385套，从长期维度看该成交规模仍处在尚可水平，机构认为若没有美伊地缘冲突带来的外部扰动，成交量本可以更高。机构预判，房贷利率继续上行的背景下，未来数月成交将维持疲软状态。
与此同时，市场上的挂牌房源数量仍处于一年中同期的历史高位。随着春季到来，新上市房源开始增加，如果成交量继续保持疲软，市场库存可能继续维持在较高水平，买家议价空间将进一步扩大。
虽然整体交易活动下降，但 首次购房者仍然是目前市场中非常活跃的一类买家。
7月首次购房者占全部购房交易的29.0%，创下单月历史新高。整体交易萎缩环境下，首次购房者的实际购房数量不降反升，走出独立行情。反观房产投资者活跃度明显降温，高贷款利息推高融资成本，地税、保险等持有成本同步上涨，租金收益率偏低，多重因素压制投资者入市意愿。
租赁市场：租金可能接近谷底，但快速反弹的可能性不高
目前租赁市场整体仍然偏弱，不过已经出现了一些趋于稳定的迹象。
Stats NZ 数据显示，截至7月的一年，新租金上涨约 0.8%；MBIE 的 bond 数据则显示，截至6月的三个月，租金同比小幅上涨 0.3%。虽然市场接近底部，但短期租金很难大幅反弹。
一方面净移民虽然开始出现初步恢复，截至2026年6月，离境人数下降约 5%，入境人数增加约 1%，但整体净移民水平仍然偏弱。另一方面新房供应大规模增加，进一步压制租金上涨空间。
住房建设许可数据直观反映供应扩张：截至2026年6月的1年内，全国住宅建筑许可共计40581套，同比增长19%。其中独立住宅许可上涨17%，联排、公寓等多单元住宅许可上涨21%；奥克兰全年获批新建住宅17097套，同比增长20%；皇后镇‑湖区新建住宅许可数量首次突破2000套。
综合来看，即便租赁市场触底企稳，偏弱的人口回流叠加充足的新增住房供给，依旧会约束租金的上行幅度。
房贷利率走势
贷款利率环境持续收紧
8月份，6个月到3年期贷款利率上行，驱动力来自批发利率走高。当前2‑5年期固定利率水平相近，锁定2年以上长期利率并不会带来明显额外成本，但并不代表锁期越长越划算。
当前市场主流预期 OCR 将达到 3%。ANZ 分析认为，连续两次锁定 1 年期的综合成本可能低于直接锁定 2 年期，因此 1 年期可被视为兼顾确定性与成本的一种折中选择，但代价是放弃更长期的利率保障。不过，这一分析仅作为参考，未来利率走势仍存在较大不确定性。
央行政策层面，7月和9月OCR上调25个基点，ANZ预测后续议息会议会将OCR推升至3%中性水平；市场预期12月或将迎来再一次加息。
大选和税收政策增加市场不确定性
除了利率之外，临近 11月7日大选也增加了房地产市场的不确定性。
目前房屋相关税收政策讨论不断，加剧市场观望情绪。被讨论的政策选项包含资本利得税、限制投资者利息抵扣、土地税。一旦出台力度较大的房产相关税收，将会对房价形成下行压制。但国内区域经济复苏，会部分对冲利率抬升与选举不确定性，对房价形成底部支撑。
未来展望：今年仍偏弱，明年有望温和改善
总体来看，新西兰房地产市场目前仍处于一个高利率、低增长和买家占优势的阶段。
ANZ 根据近期市场疲软情况调整了房价预测，预计 2026年房价下降约1%，2027年上涨约2%。这意味着 ANZ 并不预计房价会出现明显下跌，但同样也不认为短期内会出现强劲反弹。
总结
综合来看，2026年的新西兰房地产市场仍处于一个调整和观望阶段。高利率、较高的房源库存以及大选和潜在税收政策带来的不确定性，短期内仍会限制市场需求和房价表现。不过，市场并非完全缺乏支撑。首次购房者仍然保持较高的活跃度，部分地区房价也表现出一定韧性，而经济逐步复苏有望为未来的住房需求提供支持。
Reference：
Property Focus | For homeowners and investors
Cotality monthly NZ housing chart pack
