8月份房市及利息走势分析报告
This month, the Official Cash Rate (OCR) was lowered to 3%, and all major banks cut the mortgage rates as well. The 6-month fixed rate has dropped to 4.99% p.a., and the 1-year fixed rate is now 4.72% p.a.. Notably, banks did not lower rates all at once but instead opted for multiple incremental reductions in this month. This cautious approach reflects their risk management strategy while keeping borrowers’ expectations anchored for further possible declines in the near term.
Latest Housing Market Analysis
House Prices: Under Winter Pressure
The seasonally adjusted REINZ House Price Index fell 0.3% in June and 0.5% in July.
RBNZ data showed the housing market and the broader economy were weak in Q2, but signs of improvement emerged in August, with further OCR cuts reducing downside risks.
Regional Divergence: Strong South, Weak North
Auckland & Wellington: Weak labor markets have weighed on both house prices and rents. Rents on new tenancies fell 5.0% y/y in Wellington and 2.0% y/y in Auckland, compared with a national average decline of 1.4%.
South Island & Waikato: Stable employment, underpinned by agriculture and tourism, has supported both prices and rents.
Sales & Listings: Stable but Lackluster
In July, sales volumes recovered to their historical average but showed no signs of strong momentum.
New listings have normalized to seasonal patterns, though total housing stock remains high. Buyers continue to have plenty of options, but as inventories gradually shrink, supply-demand conditions may tighten, helping prices stabilize.
Sales Efficiency: Still Weak
Median days to sell remain well above historical averages.
Auction clearance rates hover around 35–40%. Interest.co.nz data shows clearance slipped from 49% in the prior week to 43% for the week ending August 29. Seasonal effects may be at play, and the spring selling season could improve results.
Labor Market: Mixed Signals
Official unemployment rose from 5.1% to 5.2% in August. As a lagging indicator, unemployment may continue to rise even as the economy recovers.
More encouragingly, the Monthly Employment Indicator (MEI) showed job vacancies up 0.1% in June and 0.2% in July—the first back-to-back monthly increase in two years.
Outlook
RBNZ now projects two more 25bp OCR cuts by year-end, with timing brought forward to October and November (previously November and February).
Market sees zero house price growth in 2025 Q4, but about 5% growth in 2026 as lower rates and economic recovery take hold.
Headwinds remain: weak labor markets, elevated housing stock, higher ownership costs (rates and insurance), falling rents, and expectations that low interest rates won’t persist long-term.
Mortgage Market Dynamics
Floating and short-term fixed rates (up to 3 years) have fallen further with the OCR cut. Short-term rates are expected to bottom out in the next 6 months, making them currently the best value.
Long-term rates (4–5 years) have barely moved, reflecting global conditions—especially the US 10-year Treasury yield. Ongoing fiscal concerns and geopolitical risks have kept global long-term rates elevated.
Looking ahead to 2026, both short- and long-term rates are expected to rise with economic recovery. Even if RBNZ keeps cutting, long-term rates could lift earlier, driven by global markets.
Strategy: Borrowers should consider splitting their loans across different terms to spread risk and avoid being caught out at interest-rate turning points.
Conclusion
House prices are expected to remain flat in 2025, with a recovery of around 5% in 2026. OCR cuts will support the housing market in the short term, but weak labor conditions and high inventory will limit the pace of recovery. For borrowers, short-term rates still have room to fall, but long-term rates are unlikely to decline much further due to global pressures.
We will contact you as your loan approaches maturity to provide personalized restructuring advice based on market conditions at the time. If you are planning a new purchase, refinancing, or switching banks in the near future, please feel free to reach out. We are here to assist you every step of the way.
本月，新西兰官方现金利率（OCR）下调至 3%，各大银行在OCR下调前后也下降了房贷利率，其中 6个月固定利率降至 4.99% p.a.，1年固定利率降至 4.72% p.a.。值得注意的是，这次银行并非一次性集中降息，而是采取了多次、小幅度逐步下调的方式。这种做法既反映了银行在利率定价上的谨慎态度，也说明银行希望通过分阶段调整来控制风险，并维持客户对未来利率进一步下行的预期。
最新房市分析
-房价走势：冬季承压
REINZ 房价指数（经季节性调整）在 6 月下降 0.3%，7 月下降 0.5%。
RBNZ 公布的数据显示，二季度整体经济与房市表现偏弱，不过 8 月以来数据有所改善，加上持续的降息，下行风险有所缓解。
地区分化：南强北弱
奥克兰与惠灵顿：就业疲软导致房价和租金承压。惠灵顿新租约租金同比下降 5.0%，奥克兰下降 2.0%，跌幅均高于全国平均的 1.4%。
南岛及怀卡托：就业岗位稳定，依托强劲的农业经济和旅游业支撑，当地房价和租金均保持上涨。
销量与库存：稳定但不旺
7 月房屋销量回升至历史平均水平，但未见明显增长动能。
新挂牌房源数量逐步回归正常季节性水平，但整体库存依旧高位，买家选择较多。随着库存逐渐减少，未来供需关系可能趋紧，有利于房价企稳回升。
销售效率偏弱
中位销售天数显著高于长期均值。
拍卖成交率保持在 35–40% 区间。根据 Interest.co.nz 数据，8 月 23 日至 29 日一周拍卖成交率从前一周的 49% 下滑至 43%，这或受季节性影响。春季的到来也许会带来好转。
就业市场
官方数据显示，8 月失业率从 5.1% 升至 5.2%。由于失业率为滞后指标，即便经济回暖，短期内仍可能继续上升。因此，从乐观的角度看，另一个指标 MEI（月度就业指标）显示，6 月职位空缺环比增长 0.1%，7 月再增长 0.2%，这是两年来首次连续上涨，显示就业市场可能逐步改善。
未来展望
RBNZ预测今年年底前还有2次25个基点的降息，并且预测降息时间从之前的预测的11月和明年2月提前到了今年的10月和11月。
市场预测2025 年第四季度房价同比去年 零增长，但 2026 年有望在低利率和经济复苏的推动下 上涨约 5%。
不过不利因素依旧存在：就业市场疲软、房源库存高位、持房成本增加（市政费和保险费上涨）、租金下跌，以及市场普遍认为低利率难以长期维持。
贷款市场动态
受 OCR 下调带动，浮动利率与 3 年期以内固定利率继续下行。未来 6 个月，短期利率可能触底。
长期利率（4–5 年期）变化不大，主要受全球利率环境影响，尤其是 美国 10 年期国债收益率。由于全球财政不确定性和地缘风险，长期利率仍维持在高位。
展望 2026 年，随着经济复苏，短期与长期利率都可能回升。即便 RBNZ 继续降息，长期利率也可能因全球因素提前上行。
因此建议借款人应考虑 贷款分拆，在不同期限之间锁定利率，以分散风险，避免在利率拐点到来时措手不及。
总结
2025 年房价预计没有明显变化，2026 年有望回升约 5%。降息将短期支撑市场，但就业与库存压力仍限制复苏力度。对借款人而言，短期利率仍有下探空间，但长期利率受全球环境影响，下降可能性不确定。
我们会在您的贷款临近到期时主动联系您，并根据当时的市场情况为您提供个性化的贷款重组建议。如您近期有购房、贷款重组或转银行的计划，欢迎随时咨询，我们将竭诚为您服务！
Resources：
