8月份房市及利息走势分析报告
On 14th of Aug, the Reserve Bank reduced the OCR from 5.5% to 5.25%. In response, the four main banks also reduced the home loan rates, currently home loan rate for 6 months has not changed significantly, banks have lowered home loan rates for other terms. Banks also reduced the test rate, so people can borrow more money from banks now.
After the Government amended the CCCFA in July and Reserve Bank cut the OCR, these are all positive signals to stimulate economy.
Recently, more investors have started preparing for residential property development. To help those clients who are interested in this topic, Patherfinder Mortgage Services and Lowthers Chartered accountant held a Residential property development workshop on 21st of Aug, which introduced the process of property development loans and tax considerations. If we see more needs from clients, we may hold another workshop online.
The most frequently asked question right now is: When will the real estate market start to rise?
Let us have a look at the August summary of property market.
Summary
Our monthly Property Focus publication provides an independent appraisal of recent developments in the residential property market.
Property Focus
The housing market continued to weaken in July, with the REINZ House Price Index falling 0.6% m/m. Subdued sales over recent months and rising listings on the market suggest weakness is likely to persist in the near term, with prices likely to correct further to clear the backlog of supply. But a lot has happened in the past month that makes the July market snapshot feel like ancient history. With the RBNZ kickstarting its easing cycle this month, and mortgage rates having already responded, we expect dynamics in the market to shift later this year, with a recovery in house prices over 2025. Our updated projections show mortgage rates falling to around the level that prevailed in the middle of last decade. Mortgage rates are an important driver of the housing market, but they aren’t the only driver. There’s still plenty of strong headwinds facing the market. We compare the current landscape to the conditions that prevailed back in 2015, highlighting that risks to the housing market certainly aren’t one-sided.
Mortgage Borrowing Strategy
Mortgage rates are lower across the board again this month, with the median rate across the five largest banks falling between 0.4% and 0.7% for terms 1yr and longer. While the Reserve Bank only cut the OCR by 0.25%, their projections indicated a steadily declining OCR over coming years, and that drove wholesale swap rates to fall further, taking mortgage rates with them. We expect mortgage rates to continue falling steadily from here, and as such, we would urge caution when considering fixing for longer terms so early in the monetary policy easing cycle. Longer rates are cheaper and are worth considering for that reason alone. However, our breakeven analysis shows that short-term rates don’t need to fall by much to make it cheaper over time to roll successive short-term fixes. At this early stage in the cycle, it’s still worth considering fixing for a shorter term and revisiting your options when that matures. Spreading risk over several terms also still makes sense, especially since longer terms are cheaper.
央行在8月14号下调了OCR，从5.5% 下调到5.25%，四大行银行也纷纷调整了贷款难度，除了半年的利息没有太大的变化， 银行纷纷下调了其他年限的贷款利息，鼓励人们可以从银行贷到更多的钱去买房产。
从7月份政府修订CCCFA到8月份央行降息，这些都是旨在刺激经济的积极信号。最近，越来越多的投资者开始关注住宅物业开发。为此,NZ Pathfinder Mortgage Services和Lowthers Chartered Accountant于8月21日举办了一场住宅物业开发的线下讲座，旨在帮助大家更好地了解房产开发贷款流程及税务方面的注意事项。如果未来对开发的需求进一步增加，我会考虑安排线上讲座，并提前通知大家
那么我们来看看8月份的房地产市场摘要
大家目前问的最多的问题就是房地产什么时候开始会上涨？
从7月份的房价指数来看，房价下降了0.6%，这个跌幅高于经济学家的预期，这种势头可能会在下个月继续下去。 8月份央行通过下调OCR 从5.5% 到5.25%，开始了降息的周期，未来还会有更多的降息，这会让房产下降的风险发生了改变。
经济学家预测到2025年的第三个季度， OCR 可能会下调到3.5%，但是房价市场的复苏可能会需要更长的时间，因为这次OCR的下调早于预期，这是因为新西兰的经济的恶化程度超过预期。目前劳动市场的走弱，失业率的上升，会有一段时间的滞后期，这会影响购房者的借贷和投资信心。
目前的市场主导权在买家手里，疲软的销售意味着市场上的挂牌数量在增加，房屋出售的时间在变长。单单从7月份市场的房源数量来看，房源数量达到了近十年的最高水平，平均销售一处房产的时间达到了46天。从数据来看市场会在一段时间内保持低迷。
不单单是房地产市场，整个经济对利息下降的反应不够明显，这就代表经济会比之前预测的需要更久的时间恢复。经济学家预测经济可能会在2025年才会慢慢开始恢复。当然利息的下降对房地产市场的刺激是十分有效的，利息的下降会让人们的还款压力下降，人们会愿意去消费，人们可能从银行贷更多的钱去买自己想要的房产。
从目前移民的数据来看，离境的人数越来越多，虽然之前新西兰吸纳了大批新的移民，但是这些移民偏向于年轻而且部分非高技能的人才，这些人进入房地产的市场性比较小，加上在2018年实施了外国买家的限购，这会让房地产的复苏更加缓慢。
但是从奥克兰的市场数据来看，随着利息的下降，成交量在慢慢增加，这就代表市场在利息下降以后，慢慢恢复中。
整体来看，经济学家对房价的预测没有太大的变化，利息虽然可能刺激市场的恢复，但是人口的流失，消费信心的下降，都是市场恢复的阻力。由于央行开始宽松周期的时间比我们预期的稍早，市场会在2025年开始恢复。
下面来看看贷款市场
我们终于等到了央行下调OCR了，其实四大银行在央行没有下调OCR 之前其实就开始下调利息了。四大行目前认为未来几年OCR 会持续下降，这会推动贷款利息进一步下跌。
目前利息下降的频率很快，所以我们不要太早的锁定利息。 利息在未来几年一直会持续下降。
市场和贷款政策会在未来有很多变化，我和我的团队会定期给大家总结。
On 14th of Aug, the Reserve Bank reduced the OCR from 5.5% to 5.25%. In response, the four main banks also reduced the home loan rates, currently home loan rate for 6 months has not changed significantly, banks have lowered home loan rates for other terms. Banks also reduced the test rate, so people can borrow more money from banks now.
After the Government amended the CCCFA in July and Reserve Bank cut the OCR, these are all positive signals to stimulate economy.
Recently, more investors have started preparing for residential property development. To help those clients who are interested in this topic, Patherfinder Mortgage Services and Lowthers Chartered accountant held a Residential property development workshop on 21st of Aug, which introduced the process of property development loans and tax considerations. If we see more needs from clients, we may hold another workshop online.
The most frequently asked question right now is: When will the real estate market start to rise?
Let us have a look at the August summary of property market.
Summary
Our monthly Property Focus publication provides an independent appraisal of recent developments in the residential property market.
Property Focus
The housing market continued to weaken in July, with the REINZ House Price Index falling 0.6% m/m. Subdued sales over recent months and rising listings on the market suggest weakness is likely to persist in the near term, with prices likely to correct further to clear the backlog of supply. But a lot has happened in the past month that makes the July market snapshot feel like ancient history. With the RBNZ kickstarting its easing cycle this month, and mortgage rates having already responded, we expect dynamics in the market to shift later this year, with a recovery in house prices over 2025. Our updated projections show mortgage rates falling to around the level that prevailed in the middle of last decade. Mortgage rates are an important driver of the housing market, but they aren’t the only driver. There’s still plenty of strong headwinds facing the market. We compare the current landscape to the conditions that prevailed back in 2015, highlighting that risks to the housing market certainly aren’t one-sided.
Mortgage Borrowing Strategy
Mortgage rates are lower across the board again this month, with the median rate across the five largest banks falling between 0.4% and 0.7% for terms 1yr and longer. While the Reserve Bank only cut the OCR by 0.25%, their projections indicated a steadily declining OCR over coming years, and that drove wholesale swap rates to fall further, taking mortgage rates with them. We expect mortgage rates to continue falling steadily from here, and as such, we would urge caution when considering fixing for longer terms so early in the monetary policy easing cycle. Longer rates are cheaper and are worth considering for that reason alone. However, our breakeven analysis shows that short-term rates don’t need to fall by much to make it cheaper over time to roll successive short-term fixes. At this early stage in the cycle, it’s still worth considering fixing for a shorter term and revisiting your options when that matures. Spreading risk over several terms also still makes sense, especially since longer terms are cheaper.
央行在8月14号下调了OCR，从5.5% 下调到5.25%，四大行银行也纷纷调整了贷款难度，除了半年的利息没有太大的变化， 银行纷纷下调了其他年限的贷款利息，鼓励人们可以从银行贷到更多的钱去买房产。
从7月份政府修订CCCFA到8月份央行降息，这些都是旨在刺激经济的积极信号。最近，越来越多的投资者开始关注住宅物业开发。为此,NZ Pathfinder Mortgage Services和Lowthers Chartered Accountant于8月21日举办了一场住宅物业开发的线下讲座，旨在帮助大家更好地了解房产开发贷款流程及税务方面的注意事项。如果未来对开发的需求进一步增加，我会考虑安排线上讲座，并提前通知大家
那么我们来看看8月份的房地产市场摘要
大家目前问的最多的问题就是房地产什么时候开始会上涨？
从7月份的房价指数来看，房价下降了0.6%，这个跌幅高于经济学家的预期，这种势头可能会在下个月继续下去。 8月份央行通过下调OCR 从5.5% 到5.25%，开始了降息的周期，未来还会有更多的降息，这会让房产下降的风险发生了改变。
经济学家预测到2025年的第三个季度， OCR 可能会下调到3.5%，但是房价市场的复苏可能会需要更长的时间，因为这次OCR的下调早于预期，这是因为新西兰的经济的恶化程度超过预期。目前劳动市场的走弱，失业率的上升，会有一段时间的滞后期，这会影响购房者的借贷和投资信心。
目前的市场主导权在买家手里，疲软的销售意味着市场上的挂牌数量在增加，房屋出售的时间在变长。单单从7月份市场的房源数量来看，房源数量达到了近十年的最高水平，平均销售一处房产的时间达到了46天。从数据来看市场会在一段时间内保持低迷。
不单单是房地产市场，整个经济对利息下降的反应不够明显，这就代表经济会比之前预测的需要更久的时间恢复。经济学家预测经济可能会在2025年才会慢慢开始恢复。当然利息的下降对房地产市场的刺激是十分有效的，利息的下降会让人们的还款压力下降，人们会愿意去消费，人们可能从银行贷更多的钱去买自己想要的房产。
从目前移民的数据来看，离境的人数越来越多，虽然之前新西兰吸纳了大批新的移民，但是这些移民偏向于年轻而且部分非高技能的人才，这些人进入房地产的市场性比较小，加上在2018年实施了外国买家的限购，这会让房地产的复苏更加缓慢。
但是从奥克兰的市场数据来看，随着利息的下降，成交量在慢慢增加，这就代表市场在利息下降以后，慢慢恢复中。
整体来看，经济学家对房价的预测没有太大的变化，利息虽然可能刺激市场的恢复，但是人口的流失，消费信心的下降，都是市场恢复的阻力。由于央行开始宽松周期的时间比我们预期的稍早，市场会在2025年开始恢复。
下面来看看贷款市场
我们终于等到了央行下调OCR了，其实四大银行在央行没有下调OCR 之前其实就开始下调利息了。四大行目前认为未来几年OCR 会持续下降，这会推动贷款利息进一步下跌。
目前利息下降的频率很快，所以我们不要太早的锁定利息。 利息在未来几年一直会持续下降。
市场和贷款政策会在未来有很多变化，我和我的团队会定期给大家总结。
