Monthly Report for April 2026

However, the market outlook has become more uncertain. The sharp increase in global oil prices triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has added pressure to the domestic economy. At the same time, rising inflation expectations, earlier-than-expected interest rate hike expectations, and policy uncertainty ahead of the general election have all contributed to weaker buyer confidence. As a result, the housing market is now facing renewed downward pressure in the short term.

This report reviews the latest market data and policy developments, and provides an outlook on the housing market and mortgage interest rates to support home-buying and lending decisions.

Latest Housing Market Insights

Early-Year Recovery: Economic Improvement Supported House Price Growth

Before the sharp rise in oil prices, the New Zealand housing market had been showing a clear recovery trend. The key driver behind this improvement was the steady recovery of the domestic economy.

According to seasonally adjusted data, the REINZ House Price Index increased by 0.3% month-on-month in March, bringing total growth in the first quarter to 0.8%. Regionally, house prices in the South Island continued to rise, supported by the region’s strong agricultural base and recovering tourism sector. Meanwhile, Auckland and Wellington, which had previously experienced weaker market performance, also recorded modest rebounds from earlier lows.

Sales activity also showed positive signs. According to Interest.co.nz, real estate commission data increased significantly in the first quarter. Commission levels were 4% higher than the same period last year and 19% higher than the first quarter of 2024, reaching the highest first-quarter level since 2021. This suggests that market activity had been recovering steadily at the start of the year.

Other housing indicators remained relatively stable. Median days to sell decreased by one day to 46 days. However, sales volumes were slightly weaker, falling 2% year-on-year in the first quarter. Seasonally adjusted auction clearance rates remained broadly in line with the previous six months, showing no major fluctuations.

Oil Price Shock: Market Sentiment Weakened and Housing Activity Slowed

The sharp increase in fuel prices caused by the Middle East conflict disrupted the housing market’s recovery momentum. Market expectations quickly became more cautious, consumer confidence weakened, and housing transaction data began to soften.

According to Barfoot & Thompson, only 688 residential properties were sold in April, representing a sharp 18% decline compared with the same period last year. The median sale price in April was $955,250, down $74,750 from March, representing a monthly decline of 7.3%. Although the median price was still 2.3% higher than April last year, the short-term downward trend has become increasingly clear.

Auction activity also weakened significantly. Interest.co.nz monitored 333 residential property auctions nationwide during the week of 25 April to 1 May, of which only 101 properties were sold. This resulted in an auction clearance rate of just 30%, the lowest level since monitoring began and the first time in more than a year that the clearance rate had fallen below one-third. At the beginning of the year, the national auction clearance rate was above 40%, but it has been gradually declining since late February, reflecting a clear cooling in market activity.

The impact of higher fuel prices has flowed through to the wider economy and, in turn, the housing market. Higher oil prices reduce household disposable income, weaken consumer confidence, and create pressure on employment. New Zealand’s economy has shifted from a recovery phase at the start of the year to a more cautious and slower growth environment.

The services sector, one of the key pillars of the economy, is particularly exposed. As fuel costs rise, households tend to reduce discretionary spending on travel, shopping, dining, and leisure activities. This weakens business activity and adds further pressure to employment and income stability. Combined with rising interest rates, buyers have become more cautious, and housing demand has softened.

Inflation and Interest Rate Pressure: Borrowing Costs Continue to Rise

The surge in oil prices has not only weakened economic growth but has also added upward pressure to inflation. Before the oil price shock, New Zealand’s inflation rate had already reached 3.1%. ANZ expects inflation to rise to 4.4% in the second quarter, well above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range.

In response to higher inflation, the RBNZ is expected to tighten monetary policy by increasing the Official Cash Rate. ANZ forecasts that the first OCR hike could begin in July, followed by two further increases during the year, bringing the OCR to around 3%.

This means mortgage rates are likely to continue rising. Although interest rates are not expected to return to the extreme highs seen after the pandemic, a continued rate-hiking cycle will still increase repayment pressure for borrowers and weigh on both housing demand and price growth.

Election Uncertainty: Capital Gains Tax Expectations Weigh on Investor Sentiment

The upcoming general election has become another key source of uncertainty for the housing market. Labour has clearly stated that, if elected, it would introduce a capital gains tax on residential investment properties and commercial properties, while also considering other tax reforms. This policy directly affects property investors and may further reduce investment demand.

A capital gains tax would reduce after-tax returns for property investors. Together with higher interest rates, this has already caused many investors to scale back their activity or sell existing properties. Data shows that investors’ share of market transactions fell from 22% in January to 19% in March. If a capital gains tax is formally introduced, property investment activity could decline further.

However, some economists argue that the direct impact of capital gains tax on house prices may be limited. Historical examples from Canada in 1972, Australia in 1985, and South Africa in 2001 suggest that the introduction of capital gains tax did not cause a sharp fall in house prices. In these cases, house prices generally continued to follow broader economic and interest rate trends.

This may be because macroeconomic conditions and interest rate movements have a greater impact on the housing market than tax policy alone. In addition, capital gains tax usually applies only to investment properties, while owner-occupied homes are not directly affected. Therefore, the overall impact on house prices may be relatively limited. Nevertheless, policy uncertainty ahead of the election has already caused many investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach, reducing overall market activity.

Mortgage Rate and Housing Market Outlook

Current mortgage rate data from New Zealand’s five major banks shows that fixed mortgage rates for terms of one year and above have increased noticeably, with the two-year and five-year fixed rates seeing the most significant rises.

Previously, the market generally expected the first OCR hike to occur toward the end of the year. However, rate hike expectations have now moved forward, with the first increase expected in July, followed by two additional hikes that could bring the OCR to around 3%.

Earlier in the year, the two-year fixed rate was widely viewed as a balanced option between repayment stability and borrowing cost. However, as rates for one-year and longer fixed terms have now increased, the value of longer-term fixed rates has weakened.

The future direction of mortgage rates will largely depend on developments in the Middle East. If geopolitical tensions continue or escalate, mortgage rates may rise further, making longer-term fixed rates more attractive for borrowers seeking certainty. If tensions ease quickly, shorter-term fixed rates may offer better value.

Given the current level of uncertainty, some borrowers may prioritise repayment stability. As a result, 18-month and two-year fixed terms are likely to remain popular choices. However, these terms are already priced at relatively high levels and may not offer a clear cost advantage. Ultimately, the best choice will depend on each borrower’s individual circumstances, risk tolerance, and preference for certainty.

ANZ forecasts that New Zealand house prices may decline slightly by around 2% this year. However, some economists remain more optimistic and believe house prices may remain broadly stable.

Overall, the New Zealand housing market is likely to enter a mild adjustment phase in the short term. Looking further ahead, as economic conditions improve and market pressures gradually ease, house prices may regain momentum. By 2027, the market is expected to move beyond the current period of uncertainty and enter a moderate recovery phase.

Conclusion

Overall, the New Zealand housing market began the year with clear signs of recovery. However, in the short term, the market is facing several headwinds, including higher oil prices, rising inflation, increasing mortgage rates, and policy uncertainty ahead of the election.

These factors have weakened buyer confidence and increased market caution. As a result, house prices are likely to experience a modest correction rather than a sharp decline.

Looking ahead, as geopolitical risks become clearer, monetary policy stabilises, and election-related policy uncertainty is resolved, pressure on the housing market should gradually ease. Supported by underlying supply and demand fundamentals, the market is expected to return to a more stable path, with house prices potentially entering a moderate recovery phase by 2027.

We will proactively contact you as your loan approaches expiry and provide personalised refinancing or restructuring advice based on prevailing market conditions. If you are planning a purchase, refinancing, or loan restructures, please feel free to reach out at any time — we are always happy to help.

Thank you for your trust and continued support.

然而，随着中东地缘冲突引发国际油价大幅上涨，叠加国内通胀上行压力、央行加息预期提前升温以及大选带来的政策不确定性等多重因素影响，新西兰经济复苏节奏有所放缓，居民购房信心持续走弱，房地产市场短期走势已转为承压调整。

本文将结合最新数据与政策动向，帮助大家梳理当前市场形势，并分析房市及利率走势，为您的购房规划与贷款决策提供参考。

房地产市场分析

年初房市回暖：经济复苏驱动价格上行

油价大幅上涨前，新西兰房地产市场整体呈现上涨态势，核心驱动力来自国内经济的稳步复苏。

数据层面，经季节性调整后，REINZ房价指数3月环比上涨0.3%，今年第一季度累计涨幅达0.8%。分区域来看，南岛房价保持持续上升走势，当地成熟的农业与蓬勃发展的旅游业，为区域房价提供了坚实支撑；此前市场表现低迷的奥克兰、惠灵顿两大核心城市，也从前期低位迎来小幅回升，房市整体回暖态势明显。

市场交易层面同样释放积极信号，据Interest.co.nz报道，今年第一季度房产销售市场活跃度提升，房地产销售佣金数据实现大幅增长：较去年第一季度上涨4%，较2024年第一季度增长19%，创下2021年以来第一季度最高佣金水平，印证了年初房市交易的回暖趋势。

与此同时，房价相关配套指标整体表现平稳：房屋平均销售天数缩短1天，降至46天；不过房屋销量指标略显疲软，第一季度销量同比下降2%；经季节性调整后的房产拍卖成交率，与过去六个月水平基本持平，未出现明显波动

油价激增冲击：房市急转下行，信心大幅受挫

中东地区冲突引发燃油价格大幅飙升，直接打破了房市的回暖节奏，市场预期迅速转向悲观，消费者信心持续走低，房市交易数据同步回落。

据Barfoot & Thompson数据显示，4月该机构仅售出688套住宅物业，较去年同期大幅下降18%；4月房产中位售价为955,250纽币，较3月减少74,750纽币，环比降幅达7.3%，尽管较去年4月仍小幅上涨2.3%（上涨21,250纽币），但短期下行趋势已十分明显。

拍卖市场表现更是跌至低谷，Interest.co.nz在4月25日-5月1日一周内，对全国333处住宅房产拍卖情况进行监测，其中仅101处房产成功售出，拍卖销售率仅30%，为监测以来最低水平，也是一年多来首次跌破三分之一。今年年初全国房产拍卖销售率曾超40%，自2月下旬起便持续缓慢下滑，房市交易热度快速降温。

燃油价格上涨对经济形成全面冲击，进而传导至房地产市场：油价飙升直接拖累居民实际收入、打击消费者信心并影响就业市场，新西兰经济从年初的复苏态势转向缓慢下行。作为经济支柱的服务业首当其冲，受油价上涨影响，居民主动减少出行、购物、餐饮等消费支出，服务业发展受阻。经济下行压力下，居民就业稳定性与实际收入受到双重影响，叠加利率持续上行，民众购房决策愈发谨慎，房产有效需求逐步缩减，直接拖累房市整体表现。

通胀与利率双重压力：购房成本持续攀升

油价激增不仅抑制经济增长，更进一步推高国内通胀水平。油价上涨前，新西兰通胀率已达3.1%，ANZ预测，今年第二季度通胀率将攀升至4.4%，大幅超出新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）设定的通胀目标区间。

为遏制通胀走高，新西兰储备银行大概率采取上调官方现金利率（OCR）的调控策略。ANZ预测，央行将从今年7月启动加息，全年共计三次上调OCR，最终利率将升至3%左右，这意味着后续房贷利率将继续上行。尽管利率不会回升至疫情后的高位，但持续的加息周期，仍将大幅增加购房者还贷成本，对购房需求与房市走势形成明显抑制。

大选政策不确定性：资本利得税加剧投资观望

即将到来的大选，成为影响新西兰房市的另一大不确定性因素。工党明确承诺，若成功执政将对住宅投资房产、商业房产引入资本利得税（CGT），同时考虑推进其他税收调整，该政策直接触及房产投资者核心利益，对房市投资端形成显著冲击。

资本利得税将直接降低房产投资税后回报，叠加此前利率上行影响，已有大量投资者缩减投资活动、变卖所持房产。数据显示，房产投资者在市场交易中的占比，已从1月的22%降至3月的19%；若资本利得税正式落地，房产投资活动将进一步大幅收缩。

不过也有观点认为，资本利得税对房价的直接影响并不显著。参考加拿大（1972年）、澳大利亚（1985年）、南非（2001年）引入资本利得税的历史经验，三国房价并未因政策出台出现大幅波动，整体仍延续原有走势。究其原因，或因宏观经济环境、利率变动等因素对房市的影响，远大于资本利得税政策；同时该政策仅针对投资性房产，自住型住房不受影响，因此对整体房价的冲击有限。但即便如此，大选带来的政策不确定性，已让多数房产投资者持观望态度，进一步降低了房市整体活跃度。

房贷利率以及房市分析

目前新西兰五大银行房贷利率中位数显示，1年期及以上各期限固定房贷利率均出现明显上调，其中2年期、5年期固定利率涨幅最为突出。此前市场普遍预测OCR首次加息将在年底，而当前加息预期已提前，OCR将于7月迎来首次上调，后续再经两次加息至3%。

此前市场认为2年期固定利率能平衡稳定性与借贷成本，但目前1年期及以上期限利率已全面上调，超过1年期的长期固定利率，性价比明显下降。

后续利率走势高度依赖中东局势发展：若中东冲突持续升级、局势长期紧张，房贷利率将进一步上行，锁定长期利率更具优势；若局势快速缓和，选择短期固定利率则更划算。当前市场不确定性较高，部分借款人更看重利率稳定性，18个月、2年期固定利率成为主流选择，但这类期限利率已处于高位，从成本角度并无明显优势，最终选择仍取决于借款人自身偏好。

ANZ 预测，今年新西兰房价将小幅下降约 2%。不过，也有经济学家持相对乐观态度，认为房价今年有望保持基本平稳。

整体来看，短期内新西兰房地产市场或将进入小幅调整阶段；但从中长期来看，随着经济环境改善及市场压力逐步缓解，预计到 2027 年，新西兰房价有望摆脱当前多重压力，进入温和上涨周期。

总结

综合多重因素来看，年初房市逐步恢复，但短期内在高油价冲击经济、通胀增长，房贷持续上行、大选税收政策不明朗等多重利空叠加下，市场观望情绪浓厚，房价大概率迎来小幅回调。整体楼市不会出现剧烈波动，更多以温和调整为主。随着后续地缘局势逐步明朗、货币政策趋于稳定、大选政策落地清晰，叠加供需基本面支撑，房市压力将逐步缓释，预计2027年市场将重回平稳通道，房价有望迎来温和修复。