4月份房市及利息走势分析报告
We hope you had an enjoyable and restful break over the Easter and ANZAC Day holidays.
In April, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points as expected. All four major banks followed with rate cuts about a week later. Further rate reductions—possibly two to three more—are likely ahead, as part of efforts to stimulate the still-weak domestic economy.
Looking at the data for April, mortgage activity remains strong. Lower interest rates have provided a clear boost to the housing market's recovery.
Due to a high volume of loan applications, Westpac has temporarily suspended pre-approvals for non-bank customers (excluding first-home buyers and construction loans).
The surge in applications has led to longer processing times across all banks. If you're considering buying a property, we strongly recommend applying for pre-approval early—it could save you time during the home-buying process.
The construction sector remains subdued. Builders are engaging in price competition to survive, which is good news for first-home buyers who may be able to purchase new homes at more competitive prices. However, developers are advised to maintain strong cash flow to get through this difficult period.
We’ve prepared the following market update to help you understand the current trends and make informed property or mortgage decisions.
Property Market Analysis
-House prices are rising slowly but lack strong momentum
The New Zealand housing market is gradually stabilizing. House sales rose 3.4% in March, and prices have continued to increase slightly. However, the supply of new listings remains high, providing buyers with more options and limiting upward pressure on prices.
According to REINZ, national house prices have increased by around 0.9% since October last year, although they remain 0.6% lower than the same time last year. This modest recovery is being met with a surge in property listings, as many sellers look to take advantage of improving conditions. As a result, buyers now have greater choice.
In March, total market inventory rose by 0.6%, reaching the highest level in nearly a decade. In Auckland, stock levels hit a record high not seen since 2011.
Auction clearance rates have remained steady at around 40% in recent months. The median number of days to sell held at 46 (seasonally adjusted), still well above the long-term average of 39 days—another sign that the market remains in a sideways consolidation phase.
Given these factors, ANZ has revised its 2025 house price forecast downward from 6.0% to 4.5%. While a stronger recovery is still expected in the second half of the year, the pace is now projected to be more modest.
-First-Home Buyer Activity
According to the RBNZ, 2,943 new mortgages were approved for first-home buyers in March—an increase of 20% compared to March 2024. This is the highest monthly total since November 2021 and reflects the impact of lower mortgage rates and a more stable property market.
That said, continued increases in property listings mean it may still take several more months before prices see more significant upward pressure.
-Rental Market: Higher Supply, Lower Rents
Alongside the sales market, New Zealand’s rental market is also undergoing change. According to Trade Me Property, the number of rental properties listed in March rose by 41% compared to the same time last year—the highest level since early 2014.
This sharp increase in supply has caused the national median weekly rent to decline for the second month in a row. In March, the median weekly rent was $15 lower than the same period last year, a 2.3% decrease that could save tenants up to $800 annually.
The largest annual rent declines were recorded in:
- Taranaki: -4.8%
- Hawke’s Bay: -3.1%
- Canterbury: -1.8%
- Auckland: -1.4%
- Wellington: unchanged
Mortgage Rate Analysis
Short-term fixed rates fell this month, while long-term rates remain elevated due to persistent global inflation and instability in U.S. financial markets. Looking forward, there may be limited room for further significant rate reductions. Market forecasts suggest 1- to 2-year fixed rates could decline by another 0.2% to 0.4%, but the major drops are likely behind us.
If you prefer certainty, locking in a shorter-term fixed rate at current levels may be a practical choice. If you’re considering waiting, it’s worth keeping an eye on the Reserve Bank’s next update in late May.
-Mortgage Rate Outlook
To support economic recovery, the Reserve Bank is expected to deliver several more cuts—each of 25 basis points—potentially bringing the OCR down to a low of 2.5%. This would help sustain the property market’s recovery and may further reduce mortgage rates.
However, with the 2-year fixed rate already close to the bottom, now may still be a good opportunity to lock in. For those whose fixed terms expire in May or June, it could be worthwhile to wait until after the May 28 policy announcement. Global uncertainty means there’s a possibility the RBNZ may opt for a larger cut if conditions worsen.
Conclusion
In summary, New Zealand’s property market continues its gradual recovery. Prices are stabilizing, and first-home buyer activity remains strong. However, high levels of inventory are keeping price growth in check. Interest rates are expected to decline further in the near term, though any major cuts are likely behind us.
Key factors to monitor over the coming months include how quickly excess housing stock is absorbed and the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy stance amid global uncertainty.
Our team will be in touch with you as your loan approaches refix time, so we can work together to determine the best time and structure for locking in a new rate.
希望您在刚刚过去的Easter与Anzac Day两个长假期中度过了一个愉快而充实的假期。
前言
四月份央行按照计划把OCR降低了25个基点，四大行在一周以后也都纷纷下调了贷款利息。未来可能还会有2到3次的降息。这主要是刺激本来就低迷的经济。
从4月份的数据来看，申请贷款的客人还是很活跃，利息的下调对房地产市场的恢复还是起到很大的推力。
Westpac 因为申请贷款客人的数量太多， 已经短暂的停止审批不是本银行客人的预批申请。（首套购房者，盖房除外）
由于申请贷款的人数太多，导致所有银行审批贷款的时间都大幅增加，要买房的朋友一定要提前申请预批，这样会节省很多时间。
建筑行业目前还是很低迷，每个建筑公司为了生存都在打价格战，这对很多首套购房者是利好消息，可以用比较低的价格买到心仪的房产。开发商的朋友还是需要保留足够的现金流来度过最艰难的时刻。
接下来，我们为您带来2025年4月最新的新西兰房地产市场动态分析，帮助您更好地了解当前市场趋势并制定合适的购房或贷款决策。
房地产市场分析
-房价缓慢上升，但仍缺少动力
截至目前，新西兰房地产市场正逐步回稳。3月份房屋销量上升3.4%，房价继续小幅上涨。然而，库存依然充足，新房挂牌量持续走高，意味着买家拥有更多选择空间，价格上涨的动力暂时受限。近期房价表现较为稳定。
REINZ数据显示，自去年10月以来，全国房价已累计回升约0.9%。尽管年度涨幅仍为负（同比下跌0.6%），这主要是市场房源的供应量也在同步增加， 卖家现在纷纷想抓住机会入市卖掉手里的库存， 这让买家在市场有更多的选择。
从新房挂牌的数据来看， 三月份总房源上升了0.6%， 达到了近10年来的最高水平。 奥克兰的房源总量更是创下2011年最高纪录。
与此同时，拍卖成交率维持在40%左右，中位售出天数在46天，仍高于长期平均水平（39天），反映市场整体仍在横盘整理。
基于上述情况，ANZ仍预期房价将在今年下半年迎来更明显的增长，但已下调房价增幅预期，从此前的6%调整为4.5%。
-首次购房者入市活跃
新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）数据显示，2025年3月首次购房者共获批2943笔新贷款，较去年同期增长20%，创下自2021年11月以来的月度新高。这一趋势得益于目前相对较低的贷款利率及房价的稳定环境。
不过，需要注意的是，随着房源供应的持续增长，市场仍需时间消化库存，房价的实质性反弹或许仍需等待几个月时间。
-租赁市场：供应激增，租金回落
房价之外，租赁市场也出现变化。根据Trade Me Property数据，2025年3月全国可租房源数量同比大增41%，为2014年以来最高水平。这使得全国租金中位数连续第二个月下跌。
与去年同期相比，3月全国租金中位数下降2.3%，相当于每周减少15纽币，为租户每年节省近800纽币。其中，Taranaki（-4.8%）、Hawke’s Bay（-3.1%）和Canterbury（-1.8%）跌幅最明显，奥克兰下降1.4%，惠灵顿则保持不变。
贷款利率分析
本月短期固定利率有所下降，长期利率则仍处高位。受制于全球利率环境及美国市场的不稳定，长期利率未来大幅下降的可能性较低。根据目前市场预测，1至2年期固定利率仍有望分别再下降约0.2%至0.4%。
但也应认识到，大幅降息周期可能已接近尾声。若您偏好利率的确定性，锁定较短期限的低利率可能更为合理；若对未来利率走势仍抱有观望态度，建议密切关注5月RBNZ动向，再制定更稳妥的借款策略。
-利率展望
RBNZ为刺激经济增长，预计将额外降息几次，每次25个基点，目标将OCR（官方现金利率）进一步下调至2.5%的历史低位。这将为房地产市场带来更多支撑，也可能带动贷款利率进一步走低。
然而，尽管OCR仍有下行空间，当前市场上主流的2年期固定贷款利率已接近底部。若您需要近期锁定利率，2年期产品仍是相对稳妥的选择。但如果贷款到期日在5月或6月之后，不妨等待RBNZ 5月28日的政策会议再做决定。届时，若全球经济形势继续恶化，不排除RBNZ会采取更大幅度的降息措施。
总结
综上所述，当前新西兰房地产市场正处于缓慢复苏期，房价虽已稳定，但上涨空间受到供应压力限制。首次购房者活动增强，加上预期的持续降息，将为市场提供支撑。未来几个月的关键观察点，将包括库存是否能有效消化，以及RBNZ在全球经济不确定性背景下的货币政策调整。
我和我的团队会在贷款临近的时候和大家商量如何合理的锁定贷款。
Resource：
1. ANZ property focus：Property Focus | For homeowners and investors
2. People seeking rental accommodation 'should feel empowered' | interest.co.nz
3.First home buyers were active in March but they remained cautious on price | interest.co.nz
