Summary
Currently, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is maintaining the OCR at 5.5%. New Zealand's economy is experiencing a very slow growth, with rising unemployment rate, yet prices have not fallen as expected. The inflation rate is more stubborn than expected. More and more borrowers are feeling the pressure from rising living costs and struggling to make their mortgage repayments. A predicted increase in unemployment is expected to make the situation even worse. However, the central bank will still insist on keeping the OCR at its high point, hoping to keep inflation between 1% and 3% this year.
Based on our company's data, the number of first home buyers has decreased compared to last year, while the number of customers planning to purchase investment properties is gradually increasing. With the recent changes, which will come into effect from July this year, shortened the bright-line test to two years, and the interest deductibility policy, are both incentives for investors to come back to the property market. However, many customers who already own properties will need to renew their loans this year, and the high interest rates resulting in higher repayment amounts may deter many investors from purchasing new investment properties.
In order to compete for market share, the four major banks have lowered the difficulty of loan applications for customers with less than a 20% deposit, aiming to attract more first home buyers. However, with limited stimulating factors in the real estate market at present, this is unlikely to lead to significant growth in property market.
We have also obtained accreditation from Kiwibank, providing customers looking to purchase their first home with less than a 20% deposit an additional option. Additionally, Kiwibank has also got a special offer: for customers who meet their requirements, they provide a Free Refinance Service, helping customers save on legal fees when switching their mortgage to Kiwibank.
In the coming year, there will be significant challenges for construction companies. High interest rates, market uncertainties, and decrease in demand will pose considerable challenges for construction firms. Therefore, it is crucial to maintain sufficient cash flow to navigate through this difficult period.
Property market outlook
ANZ analysis indicates that the REINZ house price index decreased by 0.5% in March, resulting in a market growth rate of 0.7% for the first quarter, lower than the expected 1.1%. Predictions suggest that the second and third quarters are likely to follow a similar trend. Auckland often sets the tone for the national housing market. According to information provided by Barfoot and Thompson, ANZ suggests that Auckland's house prices will further weaken in the short term. ANZ forecasts a 3% increase in NZ house prices in 2024.
New Zealand has absorbed a significant number of new migrants. While new migrants have had some impact on the rental market, the growth in rents cannot offset the pressure from high interest rates, discouraging many potential property investors. Additionally, data from Auckland indicates that despite an increase in net migration, rental yields remain unchanged. This means that rental supply is increasing alongside the influx of immigrants and is meeting the demand. Consequently, such rental yields are unlikely to drive investors to purchase properties.
From ANZ’s research, residential building consents data shows that while the total number of consents issued have been falling, the share of new consents for townhouses, flats and units has continued to rise, counting for more than 45% of residential dwelling consents as of March 2024. This would help to cover the shortage in the rental market.
The number of days it is taking to sell houses is also an indicator of market intensity. Based on a three-month rolling average, the time to sell a house in March was approximately 4 days longer than the historical average. In Auckland, this period was 7 days longer compared to the average, 3 days longer in Wellington, and remained consistent with the historical average in Canterbury.
Based on current data, the overall market is showing a downward trend, with unemployment rates on the rise. This leads to concerns among individuals about potential job loss, consequently lowering overall consumer confidence. In the short term, the market is expected to experience a period of weakness. However, it is unlikely to be a significant downturn. The sluggishness in the construction market and the influx of new migrants will result in a reduction in housing supply. Furthermore, the government's initiatives, such as shortening the bright-line test period, bringing back the interest deductibility, streamlining the construction process, and reducing building costs, will also stimulate the market to some extent. When will the market rebound depends primarily on when the central bank lowers the OCR. With the decrease in loan interest rates, coupled with the above factors, it will make the housing market more active.
Interest Rates Outlook
In April, the interest rates of the four major banks did not continue the slight downward trend seen in March; instead, there was little to no change. Westpac also did not lower loan interest rates to align with other banks. This could be because Westpac is satisfied with their current market share and is not seeking to lower interest rates to attract more market share. Some Westpac customers may decide to refinance to other banks when renewing their loans.
The recent slight decrease in interest rates is mainly due to competition among banks, rather than a decrease in wholesale rates. In fact, wholesale rates have seen a slight increase recently. The Reserve Bank is aiming to reduce inflation rate to 2%, and they will only start accelerating the reduction of the OCR when there are more specific and clear signs indicating that data is moving towards the central bank's inflation target of 2%. Currently, ANZ economists predict this will happen in early 2025. Financial markets predict that the Reserve Bank will have the first reduction on OCR in November this year.
The Reserve Bank will announce some new policies soon, including the long-discussed Debt-to-Income Ratio (DTI) and may have changes to Loan-to-Value Ratio (LVR) too. They both will have impact on approved lending amount and the housing market. We will continue to update everyone on these changes.
4月份房市及利息走势分析报告
总结
目前新西兰央行还是维持OCR 在5.5%。新西兰的经济增长缓慢，失业率上升，然而物价并没有像预期一样下降。通货膨胀率比预期更加顽固。越来越多的贷款者感受到了生活和还款压力，失业率也预计会持续上升。但是央行还是会坚持维持OCR 在高点，希望今年能把通胀控制在1% 到 3% 之间。
从我们公司的数据来看，首套购房者的数量比去年减少，计划够买投资房的客人逐渐增多。今年七月份开始实施的明显法则改为两年，还有利息抵税政策都对投资房产都有推动作用。然而很多拥有房产的客人的贷款都在今年需要更新利息， 高利息带来的高的还款额度也会使很多投资者对购买新的投资房产望而却步。
四大银行为了争夺市场的份额， 纷纷降低首付不够20% 的贷款申请的难度去吸引更多的首套房购房者。但是房地产市场目前没有太多的刺激因素，这也并不会导致房地产市场增长。
我们也获得了Kiwibank的代理资格，可以给首付不够20%的首套房购买的客人多一个选择。另外Kiwibank 还有一个特殊的优势，就是对符合他们要求的客人，他们可以提供Free Refinance Service。可以帮转去他们银行的客人省下律师费用。
未来一年对建筑公司会有很大的挑战， 高利息，市场不明了，需求降低，这些因素会给建筑公司带来很大的挑战，所以一定要保持足够的现金流度过这个艰难的时段。
房地产市场总结
ANZ分析数据表明，3月份房地产指数下降了0.5%，导致第一季度的市场增长率为0.7%，低于预期的1.1%。而且预测第二和第三季度也会是类似的数据。奥克兰往往领先全国的住房市场走势。据Barfoot and Thompson提供的信息显示，ANZ表示奥克兰的房地产的价格在短期内会进一步疲软。ANZ 预测房价会在2024年增长3%。
新西兰吸纳了很多新的移民。尽管新移民对租房市场有一定的冲击，但是增长的租金并不能抵消高利息带来的压力，这就会让很多想投资房产的投资客不愿意购买投资房产。而且，奥克兰的数据表明，尽管净移民数量增加，但是租金收益率保持不变，也就是说，租房供应随着移民数量的增加也在提高并且可以满足需求。那么这样的租金收益率也不太可能推动投资者购买房产。
从ANZ分析数据上看，虽然整个新西兰的新建房许可正在下降，但申请建联排房许可的数量却一直在上升。三月份申请联排房屋的许可占据所有居民住宅许可的45%。这也大大缓解了租房市场的紧缺。
房屋销售所需的天数也是衡量市场紧张程度的一个指标。在一个三个月移动平均值的基础上，与历史平均相比，三月份卖出一套房屋需要的时间大约长了4天。在奥克兰，与平均水平相比，需要的时间比平均值长了7天，在惠灵顿则比平均值长了3天，在坎特伯雷地区与历史平均水平大致相当。
从目前的数据来看，整个市场是下滑的趋势，失业率正在上升，这会导致人们担心自己是不是也会失业从而导致整体的消费信心下降。 短期来看市场会处在疲软期。但是市场不会大幅下滑，建筑市场的低迷和新移民的到来会导致房源减少， 需求会大于供给，而且政府已经缩短了明线时间，恢复利息抵税政策，简化建房的流程和降低建筑成本，这些因素也会相对的刺激市场。市场何时反弹，目前最主要是看央行何时降低OCR。贷款利息下降，配合以上因素，会使房地产市场更加活跃。
利息走势
四大银行的利息在四月份并没有延续三月份小幅下调的走势，而是没有什么变动。Westpac也依然没有下调贷款利息去和其他银行保持一致。这有可能是因为Westpac 对他们目前的市场份额比较满意，而不会去降低利息争取更多市场。有些客人有可能会决定在贷款renew时转去其他银行。
最近利息的小幅下调很大原因是由于银行之间的竞争，而并不是因为批发利率下降，反而批发利率最近有小幅升高。目前央行需要控制通胀，只有看到更具体明确的迹象表明数据在朝着央行的2%的通胀目标时，央行才会开始加速降低OCR。目前ANZ经济学家预测这会发生在2025年初。金融市场预测央行第一次降低OCR会在今年十一月份。
接下来，央行会公布一些新政策，其中包括已经提及过很久的DTI (debt to income ratio), 还有 LVR （Loan to Value ratio) 的一些变动。这些都会影响到可以批准的贷款额度还有房市。我们会持续给大家更新市场的变化。
