Property Market Analysis

Buyer Caution Continues to Weigh on Housing Activity

One of the key features of the current housing market is continued buyer caution, driven by expectations of higher interest rates and broader economic uncertainty.

As wholesale interest rates and mortgage rates have risen, some prospective buyers are reassessing their borrowing capacity and potential future repayment costs.

Volatility in global oil prices and policy uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election may also weigh on market confidence. According to ANZ's latest property report, housing sales have softened across much of the country. In some regions, the number of properties available for sale has increased, the time required to sell a property has lengthened, and seasonally adjusted auction clearance rates have remained relatively weak.

New Housing Supply Increases as Listings Remain Elevated

While demand remains subdued, housing supply continues to face upward pressure.

According to recent data from Statistics New Zealand, 41,268 new homes were consented between September 2025 and August 2026, an increase of 21.1% compared with the same period a year earlier. This points to a potential increase in future housing supply.

Data from Realestate.co.nz also shows that 34,001 residential properties were listed for sale at the end of September 2026, up 10.7% year-on-year. Total available stock reached its highest level since 2014.

As the number of homes available for sale increases without a corresponding rise in buyer demand, competition among sellers may intensify. For buyers, this could mean greater choice and more negotiating power in some areas. For sellers, realistic pricing and expectations around the time required to sell are becoming increasingly important.

House Prices Continue to Soften, with Significant Regional Differences

At a national level, house prices have yet to show signs of a sustained recovery.

According to the Cotality Home Value Index, New Zealand's median residential property value was down 1.33% year-on-year in September 2026, with values recording their sixth consecutive monthly decline. REINZ data also points to continued weakness, with modest price declines recorded in four of the past five months.

ANZ estimates that, after looking through short-term volatility, the underlying trend in national house prices is currently around a 0.5% decline per quarter. ANZ expects house prices to remain under modest pressure over the coming months, with national average house prices potentially ending 2026 around 1% below where they started the year.

A modest recovery is expected in 2027, although ANZ forecasts annual house price growth of only around 2%.

National figures, however, do not tell the full story, with considerable differences in performance across regions.

Auckland and Wellington

The Auckland and Wellington housing markets remain relatively weak.

ANZ notes that the pace of house price declines in Wellington has accelerated since March 2026. This may partly reflect higher interest rates and concerns about the possibility of further public-sector cuts signalled in the 2026 Budget.

Auckland and other parts of the North Island have also shown signs of further weakness over recent months. According to Cotality, annual house price movements vary considerably across Auckland, with declines ranging from 0.8% in Franklin to 4.5% in Central Auckland.

Parts of the South Island

By comparison, some South Island markets had previously shown greater resilience. However, ANZ notes that house price growth in the South Island has also slowed in recent months, although it is too early to tell whether this trend will continue.

OCR Outlook

According to ANZ's latest report, its economists expect the RBNZ to raise the OCR three more times:

• October 2026: 25 basis point increase
• February 2027: 25 basis point increase
• March 2027: further 25 basis point increase

Under this forecast, the OCR would ultimately rise to 3.5%.

Economist Tony Alexander has a higher OCR forecast. In his recent commentary, he suggests that the OCR may ultimately need to rise to 4.0%–4.5%.

His view is based primarily on two factors.

First, Alexander believes the RBNZ may have cut the OCR too far. He points out that when the OCR was lowered to 2.25% in October and November 2025, the New Zealand economy was already starting to grow more quickly. In his view, some of the recent and expected rate increases may simply be reversing those earlier cuts.

Second, many businesses are still planning to raise their prices. According to the ANZ Business Outlook survey, some businesses may be waiting for consumer demand to improve before putting these price increases in place. If the economy continues to recover and consumer spending picks up, more businesses may start raising their prices, which could keep inflation higher for longer.

Alexander also points to several other factors that could keep inflation higher. These include the possible impact of El Niño on farming, growing demand for resources from AI and data-centre development, a weaker New Zealand dollar, and higher energy and food prices. He also notes that rising global defence spending and government debt could add further pressure to inflation and longer-term interest rates.

Mortgage Rate Outlook

Fixed mortgage rates are not based only on the current OCR. They are also influenced by wholesale interest rates and expectations about where interest rates may go next.

Recently, higher global oil prices and bond yields have pushed New Zealand wholesale rates higher. This has also put upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates.

Most fixed mortgage rates have increased this month. Floating rates have also risen following the earlier OCR increase.

The two-year fixed rate has been an exception. Several banks are currently offering special two-year rates, with strong competition helping to keep these rates lower. However, if wholesale rates continue to rise, these special offers may not last.

For borrowers who are coming up for a refix, one of the main decisions is whether to choose a shorter or longer fixed term.

Shorter fixed terms currently offer relatively lower rates, which can help keep repayments down in the short term. However, there is a risk that rates could be higher when it is time to refix again.

Longer fixed terms offer more certainty because the interest rate is locked in for a longer period. However, these rates are generally higher at the moment. If inflation comes down and mortgage rates fall in the future, borrowers who fix for longer may miss out on lower rates.

There are also different views on which fixed term may be suitable in the current market.

Tony Alexander has said that he personally prefers a three-year fixed term to reduce the risk of being affected by further interest rate increases.

ANZ, meanwhile, sees some appeal in the two-year fixed rate, as it provides more certainty without being significantly more expensive than shorter-term options.

With the future direction of interest rates still uncertain, some borrowers may also consider splitting their mortgage across different fixed terms. This can help avoid having the entire loan come up for refixing at the same time.

Ultimately, there is no single fixed term that will suit everyone. The right choice will depend on your financial situation, repayment capacity and future plans, as well as how much you value lower costs now versus greater certainty for the future.

Conclusion

The outlook for both the housing market and interest rates remains uncertain.

For prospective buyers, softer house prices may provide greater choice and negotiating opportunities, but future borrowing costs remain an important consideration. For existing mortgage holders, decisions around fixed terms require a careful balance between interest costs, repayment capacity and flexibility.

Regardless of how market conditions develop, reviewing your financial position and planning your lending arrangements in advance can help you better prepare for future changes.

进入2026年第四季度，新西兰房地产市场依然承压。

此前，随着利率下降和经济逐步复苏，市场曾期待房市迎来更明显的回暖。然而，国际油价及全球债券收益率走高，通胀压力再度加剧，推动新西兰批发利率及住房贷款利率上涨，令房地产市场的复苏面临更多阻力。

与此同时，房屋供应持续增加，而买家对未来利率走势和经济前景仍持谨慎态度，进一步加大了房地产市场的供需压力。

本文将结合近期市场数据与经济分析，梳理房地产市场及住房贷款利率的最新变化，为购房决策和贷款规划提供参考。

房地产市场分析

买家观望情绪加重，房屋销售市场持续承压

近期新西兰房地产市场的一个明显特征，是买家购房意愿受到利率上涨预期及经济不确定性的影响。随着批发利率和住房贷款利率走高，部分潜在买家开始重新评估自己的贷款能力和未来还款成本。

此外，国际油价波动及大选带来的政策不确定性，也可能进一步影响市场信心。根据ANZ房地产报告，大部分地区的房屋销售表现有所走弱，部分地区的待售房屋库存增加，房屋出售所需时间延长，季节性调整后的拍卖成交表现也较为疲软。

这意味着目前市场上的买家整体仍然较为谨慎。

新房供应增加，待售房屋库存处于较高水平

在需求疲弱的同时，房屋供应仍面临增长压力。

根据Statistics NZ近期公布的数据，从2025年9月至2026年8月，新住宅建筑许可数量达到41,268套，同比增长21.1%，反映出未来潜在住房供应有所增加。

Realestate.co.nz数据显示，截至2026年9月底，网站上共有34,001处住宅房产待售，同比增长10.7%，待售库存总量达到自2014年以来的最高水平。

随着待售房屋增加，而买家需求未能同步增长，卖家之间的竞争可能加剧。对于买家而言，部分地区可能出现更多选择和议价空间；对于卖家而言，合理定价及对销售周期的预期则变得更加重要。

全国房价继续走弱，但不同地区差异明显

从全国数据来看，房价尚未出现明显的持续回升。

根据Cotality房屋价值指数，2026年9月新西兰住房价值中位数同比下降1.33%，并已连续第六个月出现环比下降。REINZ的数据同样反映出市场疲弱的趋势：过去五个月中，有四个月出现小幅价格下降。

ANZ分析认为，剔除短期波动后，全国房价整体呈现每季度约0.5%的下降趋势。ANZ预计，未来几个月房价仍将小幅承压，到2026年底，全国平均房价可能较年初下降约1%。2027年则可能出现温和复苏，预计全年涨幅约为2%。

不过，全国平均数据并不能完全反映各地区的实际表现，区域之间仍存在明显差异。

-奥克兰和惠灵顿

奥克兰和惠灵顿的房地产市场仍然较为疲弱。

ANZ指出，惠灵顿房价自2026年3月以来跌势加快，可能与利率上涨及2026年财政预算案所释放的公共部门进一步裁员风险有关。

奥克兰及北岛其他地区，过去几个月同样出现了市场进一步走弱的迹象。根据Cotality的数据，奥克兰不同地区的年度房价表现存在明显差异，跌幅从Franklin的0.8%到Central Auckland的4.5%不等。

-南岛部分地区

相比之下，南岛部分地区此前表现相对较强。不过，ANZ指出，最近几个月南岛的房价上涨动力也开始减弱，但目前尚不能确定当地房价走势是否已经发生明确转变。

OCR走势分析

根据本期ANZ报告，经济学家预计RBNZ未来可能再次加息三次：

-2026年10月：加息25个基点。

-2027年2月：加息25个基点。

-2027年3月：再次加息25个基点。

按照这一预测，OCR最终将升至3.5%。

相比之下，经济学家Tony Alexander在其近期报告中提出了更高的OCR预测，认为利率可能需要升至4%—4.5%。

他的判断主要基于两个方面。

首先，他认为此前OCR的下调幅度可能过大。 Tony指出，RBNZ在2025年10月至11月将OCR下调至2.25%时，新西兰经济已经开始加速增长。因此，他认为当前及未来的部分加息，可能只是抵消此前货币政策过度宽松的影响。

其次，企业的涨价意愿仍然较强。 Tony引用ANZ Business Outlook调查指出，不少企业计划提高产品和服务的销售价格。部分企业可能仍在等待消费者需求恢复，尚未完全落实涨价计划。如果经济持续增长、消费需求回升，这些涨价计划可能逐步转化为实际价格上涨，使通胀更难回落。

此外，Tony还指出，未来通胀面临多方面的上行风险，包括厄尔尼诺现象对农业生产的潜在影响、人工智能及数据中心发展带来的资源需求增长、纽币走弱，以及能源和食品价格上涨等。全球国防开支增加及政府债务问题，也可能进一步推高通胀和长期利率。

住房贷款利率分析

住房贷款固定利率并不完全取决于当前OCR，还受到批发利率及金融市场对未来利率预期的影响。

近期，国际油价及全球债券收益率上涨，推动新西兰批发利率互换利率走高，进而对银行固定住房贷款利率形成上涨压力。

本月，大多数固定期限的住房贷款利率均有所上升，浮动利率也随此前OCR的上调而上涨。不过，两年期固定利率成为明显的例外。由于多家银行针对这一期限推出特别优惠，激烈的市场竞争暂时抵消了部分批发利率上涨带来的压力。但如果批发利率持续走高，这些优惠可能难以长期维持。

对于即将重新固定利率的客户而言，当前面临的主要问题，是如何在利息成本与利率确定性之间作出权衡。

选择较短的固定期限，可以享受目前相对较低的利率，减轻眼前的还款压力，但也需要承担未来续期时利率可能进一步上涨的风险。

相比之下，较长的固定期限能够提前锁定未来几年的利率，提供更大的还款确定性，但当前成本通常较高。如果未来通胀得到控制、利率重新下降，借款人也可能错过更低的利率。

对于固定期限的选择，不同经济学家提出了不同观点。

经济学家Tony Alexander在其分析中表示，他个人倾向于选择三年期固定利率，以规避未来利率上涨的风险。

ANZ则认为，两年期固定利率具有一定吸引力，因为它能够在当前利率成本与未来确定性之间提供一种选择。

此外，在当前市场不确定性较高的情况下，将贷款拆分为不同固定期限，也可能帮助部分借款人分散未来的续期利率风险。

最终，借款人仍需根据自身财务状况、现金流承受能力及未来资金安排，综合考虑不同固定期限的成本、确定性与灵活性。

总结

当前房市与利率走势仍存在较大不确定性。对于购房者而言，房价走弱可能带来更多选择，但仍需考虑未来的融资成本；对于现有贷款客户而言，选择固定期限时，应在利息成本、还款能力和灵活性之间做好平衡。

无论市场如何变化，结合自身财务状况，提前做好合理的贷款规划，都有助于更好地应对未来的不确定性。

Higher mortgage rates, inflation and uncertainty ahead of the November general election continue to weigh on the market, particularly for property investors. Meanwhile, first-home buyers remain active despite the softer conditions.

This update provides an overview of the latest trends in the New Zealand property market and mortgage rates.

Property Market Overview

Property values: Nationally subdued, with clear regional divergence

New Zealand house prices have remained broadly flat, with recent data pointing to a modest softening rather than a broad-based downturn.

ANZ estimates that national house prices fell 0.2% over the first seven months of the year, while Valocity’s national index declined 1.1% over the latest quarter and 0.4% in the most recent month. Taken over a longer horizon, values have shown relatively little movement over the past three years.

The national picture, however, masks a wide spread in regional performance. Over the latest quarter, values fell 1.6% in Auckland and 2.5% in Wellington, while Canterbury was broadly unchanged, down just 0.1%. By contrast, Otago and Southland recorded gains of 0.5% and 0.7%.

Annual data from Cotality reinforces this regional split. Auckland values were 2.4% lower than a year earlier in July, whereas Christchurch recorded annual growth of 3.6%.

Sales activity softens, while first-home buyers remain a key source of demand

Housing market turnover has continued to lose momentum. Cotality reported that sales volumes in July were 6.4% lower than a year earlier, marking the seventh consecutive month of annual declines. The rolling 12-month total has also eased, slipping from 91,411 sales in December to 89,385.

While turnover remains reasonable by historical standards, the direction of travel has weakened. Cotality suggested activity may have been somewhat stronger without the uncertainty created by the US–Iran conflict, while rising mortgage rates are likely to remain a headwind for sales over the coming months.

Supply conditions are also becoming more favourable for buyers. Listings remain elevated for this time of year and are beginning to rise with the usual spring lift. Unless demand picks up at a similar pace, inventory is likely to stay high, keeping buyers in a relatively strong negotiating position.

First-home buyers are a notable exception to the broader slowdown. They accounted for a record 29.0% of purchases in July, and importantly, their actual number of transactions also increased. This suggests their growing market share reflects genuine strength in demand rather than simply weakness elsewhere.

Investor activity, by contrast, remains subdued. Higher mortgage rates, rising rates and insurance costs, and relatively modest rental yields have all put pressure on investment returns, making the current environment less attractive for leveraged property investors.

Rental market: Stabilising, but upside remains limited

The rental market remains soft, although recent data suggests conditions may be starting to stabilise. Stats NZ recorded a 0.8% annual increase in new rents in July, while MBIE tenancy bond data showed rents up 0.3% year-on-year over the three months to June.

Despite these early signs of improvement, the near-term outlook for rental growth remains restrained. Net migration has begun to recover, with fewer departures and a modest increase in arrivals over the year to June, but population inflows remain well below the levels that previously drove strong rental demand.

At the same time, housing supply continues to build. A total of 40,581 new dwellings were consented in the year to June, up 19% from a year earlier. Standalone house consents rose 17%, while multi-unit consents increased 21%. Auckland alone recorded 17,097 consents, up 20%, while annual consents in Queenstown-Lakes exceeded 2,000 for the first time.

With migration demand still relatively subdued and a sizeable pipeline of new housing coming through, any recovery in rents is likely to be gradual rather than sharp.

Mortgage Rate Outlook

Mortgage rates remain under upward pressure

Mortgage rates moved higher across the six-month to three-year terms in August, reflecting the rise in wholesale interest rates.

With two- to five-year fixed rates now sitting relatively close together, there is little additional cost in fixing for longer. That said, a longer term does not necessarily offer the best value.

ANZ’s breakeven analysis suggests that two consecutive one-year fixes could still prove cheaper than fixing for two years today, based on current pricing. This makes the one-year term a reasonable middle ground for borrowers seeking some certainty without locking in for too long.

The outlook, however, remains uncertain. The OCR was raised by 25 basis points in both July and September, and ANZ expects further tightening to take it towards a neutral level of around 3%. Markets are also pricing the possibility of another increase later in the year.

For borrowers, the trade-off remains between near-term flexibility and longer-term certainty, with the right choice depending on individual circumstances and tolerance for interest-rate risk.

Election uncertainty adds another headwind

The November general election is adding another layer of uncertainty to an already cautious housing market.

Potential changes to property taxation—including a capital gains tax, limits on interest deductibility for investors and a possible land tax—have all been part of the policy debate. While the final shape of any changes remains uncertain, the prospect alone may be enough to keep some buyers, particularly investors, on the sidelines until the policy outlook becomes clearer.

Any material tightening of property-related tax settings could add further pressure to house prices. That said, an improving domestic economy may provide some offset to the drag from higher interest rates and election uncertainty.

Outlook: Weak through 2026, with a modest recovery expected in 2027

The housing market is likely to remain soft through the rest of 2026, with high borrowing costs and subdued demand continuing to limit price growth.

ANZ now expects national house prices to fall by around 1% in 2026 before rising by about 2% in 2027, following a recent downgrade to its forecasts.

The revised outlook points to a market that remains under pressure rather than one facing a sharp correction. At the same time, a meaningful recovery is unlikely until borrowing costs ease and broader economic conditions improve.

Summary

New Zealand’s housing market remains subdued, with higher mortgage rates, elevated listings and election-related uncertainty continuing to weigh on activity.

However, conditions are not uniformly weak. First-home buyers remain a strong presence in the market, while some regions continue to show resilience despite the softer national picture.

Looking ahead, a strong near-term rebound appears unlikely, but a gradual improvement in economic conditions could set the stage for a modest housing market recovery in 2027.

接下来，本文将梳理近期房地产市场及房贷利率的变化，并分析其背后的主要影响因素，为购房、贷款安排及资产规划提供参考。

房地产市场分析

房价横盘偏弱

6 月新西兰全国房产价值整体持平微跌。据 Cotality Housing Value Index 显示，全国房价 6 月环比下跌 0.2%，近三个月累计下跌 0.8%，近一年下降 0.9%。目前全国房价依旧比历史最高点低17.5%。

与此同时，ANZ 引用的 REINZ House Price Index 显示，2026 年上半年全国房价指数累计仅下跌 0.1%。报告指出，今年一季度房价曾上涨约 0.6%，但二季度回落约 0.7%，使上半年整体表现基本持平。

整体来看，新西兰房价仍处于窄幅波动、略偏疲软的状态。与此同时，国内就业市场偏弱、中东局势及油价波动带来的通胀风险，以及未来利率路径的不确定性，仍可能抑制购房需求和市场信心。综合ANZ与Cotality的判断，短期内全国房价出现大幅上涨或下跌的可能性均较低，市场预计将继续以横盘整理和小幅波动为主。

成交量持续下降，市场仍偏向买方

2026年6月，新西兰全国房产成交量为 6,829套，包括中介及私人交易，较2025年6月下降 4.0%，连续第六个月录得同比下滑。

从累计数据来看，2026年上半年全国房产总成交量较2025年同期减少 4.2%，累计少成交 1,898套，显示市场交易活跃度仍然偏低。

ANZ的补充数据显示，按三个月移动平均计算，近期房屋成交量同比下降约 6%，进一步反映买家购房意愿有所减弱。房贷利率上行、此前油价上涨对市场信心的影响，以及大选和住房政策的不确定性，均是抑制成交活动的主要因素。

供应方面，近期新增挂牌房源低于正常季节性水平，部分卖家也可能因经济及政策前景不明而暂缓出售。截至目前，全国在售挂牌房源约为 28,365套，低于去年同期的 29,610套。不过，由于成交量下降速度快于挂牌房源减少速度，市场上的可选房源相对于当前需求仍较为充足，买方的选择空间和议价能力依然较强，整体市场继续偏向买方。

区域市场表现持续分化

数据显示，近三个月奥克兰房价下跌 1.3%，过去一年下跌 2.8%。奥克兰市场持续偏弱，主要受到多重因素影响：当地平均房贷规模较高，因此对利率上行更为敏感；净移民放缓削弱了人口流入对住房需求的支撑；本地经济对农业和国际旅游业回暖的直接受益相对有限；同时，过去十年住房建设显著增加，较为充足的供应也持续限制房价反弹空间。

相比之下，基督城、汉密尔顿等城市房价维持温和上涨。其中，基督城近三个月房价上涨 0.4%，过去一年上涨约 3%；坎特伯雷地区年度涨幅为 3.2%。当地房市主要受到农业收入稳健、国际旅游业复苏以及地震重建结束后区域经济回升的支撑。不过，随着住房供应继续快速增加，加之当前房价相对收入水平并不特别低，未来大幅上涨的空间可能有限，整体走势预计仍以温和上行和逐步修复为主。

皇后镇－湖区房价长期保持强势，过去一年上涨 3.9%，目前已达到全国平均水平的约两倍，处于较高水平。不过，随着大量新建住宅、公寓和联排别墅进入规划及建设阶段，未来供应增加可能削弱房价继续快速上涨的动力。ANZ 报告认为，公寓和联排别墅等供应相对标准化的房产类型，未来涨幅放缓的可能性正在上升；而具有独特性、地理位置优越且供应稀缺的房产，若区域经济和人口继续快速增长，仍可能获得较稳定的需求支撑。

首次购房者占主导，投资者活跃度降低

2026年第二季度，首次购房者交易占比升至 28.3%，创下历史新高，继续成为当前房地产市场的重要购房群体。在房源供应较为充足、买方议价能力增强的市场环境下，首次购房者拥有更多选择，购房条件相较市场高位时期有所改善。

与此同时，多套房业主的购房活跃度继续回落。数据显示，2025年第四季度，多套房业主购房占比为 24.3%；进入2026年后连续两个季度下降，第二季度降至 22.5%，反映出投资者整体仍较为谨慎。

投资者需求减弱主要受到多重因素影响。一方面，租金增长放缓、房价升值空间有限，降低了投资回报预期；另一方面，房贷利率上行增加了持有成本。与此同时，大选及住房税收政策的不确定性，也使部分投资者保持观望，包括潜在的资本利得税、土地税，以及投资房贷款利息抵税政策可能调整等因素，均可能影响未来投资房的现金流和回报水平。

房贷利率走势

新西兰储备银行已将OCR由 2.25%上调至2.50%，货币政策重新转向收紧。RBNZ表示，未来数次会议仍存在进一步加息的可能，但具体时间将取决于通胀、经济活动及产能利用等数据表现。部分机构预计，央行将在9月、12月再度加息，年底有望将OCR上调至3%的中性水平。

利率上行预期正逐渐成为下半年房地产市场的重要制约因素之一。较高的融资成本可能增加借款人的还款压力，并继续抑制购房需求与市场信心。

当前房贷利率呈现一定的期限分化：浮动利率及较短期限固定利率中位数小幅上升，两年期固定利率变化不大，较长期限固定利率则有所回落。

值得注意的是，近期长期批发市场利率有所上行，未来长期固定房贷利率存在再次回升的可能。与此同时，房贷利率曲线趋于平坦，意味着选择较长期限固定利率所需承担的额外成本较此前有所下降，为关注未来利率上行风险的借款人提供了更多期限选择。

总结

综合 Cotality 与 ANZ 的月度房地产报告，预计 2026 年下半年新西兰房地产市场仍将维持平稳偏弱、区域表现分化的格局。ANZ 预计，至2026年年底，全国房价可能较上年同期下降约 2%。

短期来看，大选及潜在住房税收政策的不确定性、利率上行压力以及持续增加的住房供应，仍可能抑制市场信心和购房需求。因此，成交量和房价短期内出现明显反弹的可能性相对有限，市场预计仍将以横盘整理和小幅波动为主。

展望2027年，随着国内经济逐步复苏，房地产市场可能迎来温和修复。ANZ目前预计，2027年全国房价或上涨约 3%；不过，实际走势仍存在不确定性，房价跌幅和随后涨幅均可能小于当前预测，整体市场或继续呈现温和、低波动的运行特征。

Reference:

Reference:

Tony Alexander, Economics Speaker and Writer

Property Focus | For homeowners and investors

Cotality says the median dwelling value is slowly drifting downwards | interest.co.nz

At the same time, wholesale interest rates moved higher, increasing pressure on mortgage rates and reinforcing expectations that borrowing costs may continue rising in the months ahead.

In this article, we break down the latest housing and interest rate trends, explore the key drivers behind the current market slowdown, and discuss what buyers and homeowners should expect moving forward.

Latest Housing Market Insights

Housing Market Remains Weak

New Zealand’s property market continued to soften in April under the pressure of weaker economic conditions and higher borrowing costs.

National sales volumes fell 6.6% compared with the previous month and were down 9% year-on-year. Over the first four months of 2026, total sales volumes were approximately 5% lower than the same period last year, representing around 1,500 fewer property transactions nationwide. This reflects increasingly cautious buyer sentiment and slower decision-making among purchasers.

The sales-to-listings ratio eased slightly, while auction clearance rates remained relatively stable. After seasonal adjustment, the median number of days to sell fell to 45 days. However, volatility in this data means it should not yet be interpreted as a clear sign of market recovery.

The REINZ House Price Index declined 0.4% in April. Auckland, Wellington, and many North Island regions recorded noticeable price weakness, while the South Island’s earlier growth momentum also began slowing.

The rental market is also showing signs of softness. Increased rental supply in Auckland and weaker housing demand in Wellington have contributed to lower rents in some areas. However, improving net migration and a gradual reduction in rental stock suggest the downside for rents may be limited over the medium term, even if a strong rebound remains unlikely in the short term.

The current market slowdown is being driven by both economic and monetary factors. Higher global oil prices are lifting inflationary pressures and reducing household confidence, while expectations of OCR increases are pushing borrowing costs higher. Together, these factors are reducing housing market momentum and increasing uncertainty across the sector.

Moderate House Price Declines Expected

In the short term, market forecasts suggest New Zealand house prices could decline by around 2% during 2026. As economic conditions gradually improve in 2027, prices are expected to return to modest growth, with annual gains stabilising around 3%–4% from 2028 onward.

Historically, New Zealand house prices have risen by an average of around 6% per year since 1992. However, many of the factors that supported that strong growth over the past three decades are now fading. These include persistently falling interest rates, steady income growth, strong population expansion, and ongoing housing shortages.

As a result, long-term expectations for house price growth are becoming more moderate. A more sustainable long-run assumption may be annual growth of approximately 4%, consisting of roughly 2% real house price growth plus 2% inflation.

That said, this 4% estimate should be viewed as a neutral baseline rather than a guaranteed outcome. Several factors could push long-term house price growth either lower or higher.

If global interest rates remain elevated, New Zealand’s economy stays weak for an extended period, housing supply improves significantly, or tax policy becomes less supportive for property investors, long-term house price growth could fall below this level.

On the other hand, if global interest rates decline again, inflation remains persistently above 2%, or housing supply shortages re-emerge, house price growth could exceed current expectations.

Mortgage Rate Analysis

New Zealand wholesale interest rates moved higher throughout May, driven by three key factors.

First, markets are increasingly pricing in further OCR increases from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Second, domestic inflation pressures remain persistent, particularly from rising energy costs. Third, renewed concerns around fiscal sustainability in the US and Europe have pushed global bond yields higher, with spillover effects flowing into New Zealand interest rates.

Although retail mortgage rates changed only modestly during May — with most major banks making only minor increases to one-year fixed rates — continued strength in wholesale markets is likely to place further upward pressure on home loan pricing in the months ahead.

OCR Hike Expectations

According to ANZ’s latest housing market report, the bank expects the RBNZ to begin raising the OCR from July this year, delivering three consecutive 25 basis point increases and taking the OCR to 3% by year-end.

ANZ views this as a short-term tightening cycle rather than the beginning of an extended rate hiking phase.

Financial markets, however, are pricing a more aggressive path. It suggests the OCR could peak as high as 3.6% by August 2027, reflecting investor concerns that surging oil prices could trigger a prolonged inflation cycle similar to the oil shocks experienced during the 1970s.

Importantly, the current inflation environment remains largely cost-driven rather than demand-driven. Rising oil prices and imported inflation pressures are contributing more heavily to inflation than excessive consumer demand. This distinction is one of the key reasons ANZ does not expect a prolonged or aggressive long-term hiking cycle.

Given current market conditions, many analysts believe fixing mortgage rates for one to two years may provide the best balance between repayment certainty and borrowing flexibility. However, uncertainty remains extremely high. Global oil prices, overseas monetary policy, and geopolitical developments could all significantly alter the outlook for both interest rates and the housing market.

Conclusion

Overall, New Zealand’s housing market remains in a moderate correction phase.

Higher oil prices and rising interest rate expectations continue to be the key pressures weighing on market activity, and a mild decline in house prices over 2026 is increasingly becoming the market consensus.

We will proactively contact you as your loan approaches expiry and provide personalised refinancing or restructuring advice based on prevailing market conditions. If you are planning a purchase, refinancing, or loan restructures, please feel free to reach out at any time — we are always happy to help.

Thank you for your trust and continued support.

Property Focus | For homeowners and investors

Cotality monthly NZ housing report

Estimated residential sales commissions topped $2 billion in March year | interest.co.nz

Auction sales rate falls below a third for the first time in over a year | interest.co.nz

Barfoot & Thompson's median selling price drops by almost $75,000 in April | interest.co.nz

Property Focus | For homeowners and investors

At the same time, mortgage interest rates have been rising over the past few months. With multiple external risks and market fluctuations unfolding simultaneously, many people are becoming increasingly concerned about the current economic environment and the housing market, leading to growing uncertainty.

Housing Market Analysis

Short-Term Price Increase, But Weak Long-Term Trend

According to key data, the seasonally adjusted Real Estate Institute of New Zealand House Price Index recorded a 0.6% month-on-month increase in February, which brought some short-term optimism to the market.

However, looking at a longer timeframe, house prices have been flat or declining in 8 out of the past 10 months. A single month’s increase does not indicate a sustained upward trend and is more likely a short-term fluctuation rather than a true turning point.

Other market indicators also confirm that the market has not yet recovered:

• The median days to sell increased from 46 to 48 days, indicating slower turnover
• New listings continue to exceed sales volumes, leading to rising inventory levels
• Auction clearance rates are declining, and the ratio of sales to listings remains weak

In addition, the continued rise in building consents suggests that future housing supply will increase further, placing additional downward pressure on prices. The supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to improve in the short term.

Regional Divergence: South Island Outperforms

New Zealand’s housing market continues to show significant regional divergence. The South Island has outperformed the North Island, largely due to stronger economic fundamentals driven by agriculture and tourism.

Over the past 12 months:

• South Island increased by 8.6%
• Canterbury increased by 3%
• Otago increased by 2.9%

In contrast, major North Island cities remain weak:

• Wellington decreased by 3.6%
• Auckland decreased by 1.9%

Early Signs of Economic Recovery, But External Risks Dominate

Despite overall market pressure, there are early signs of domestic economic recovery:

• Improving economic activity
• Gradual recovery in homeowner confidence
• Easing pressure in the labour market
• Continued growth in net migration, supporting housing demand

However, external uncertainty—particularly the Middle East conflict—has become the largest risk factor.

Rising energy prices are highly inflationary and tend to flow through to living costs, food prices, industrial materials, plastics, and so on.

Experts forecast that:

• Inflation could reach 3.6% by the September quarter
• GDP may decline by 0.7% for the year

In this environment, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is unlikely to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) prematurely, as this inflation is largely imported (cost-push inflation) rather than driven by domestic demand. Increasing rates could further weaken an already fragile economy.

Mortgage Rate Outlook

Even without central bank intervention, mortgage rates have already shown a self-driven increase.

Due to rising wholesale swap rates influenced by global events, major banks have lifted mortgage rates, with 1–3 year fixed rates increasing by approximately 0.06%–0.11%.

Given the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, further increases remain possible. This places additional pressure on borrowers and may continue to dampen housing demand.

In light of the current interest rate environment, experts suggest avoiding long-term fixed mortgage rates unless there are clear signs that rates will rise significantly beyond expectations. Otherwise, long-term rates may offer relatively poor value. For most borrowers, a two-year fixed rate is considered a balanced option, providing a good mix of value and certainty. With rates still below 5%, it can comfortably cover the next economic cycle while keeping repayment pressure relatively manageable.

For borrowers with a very low risk tolerance who prioritise repayment certainty, longer fixed terms may still be appropriate. On the other hand, those aiming to minimise borrowing costs may prefer shorter-term rates. Alternatively, a split-loan strategy—fixing portions of the loan over different terms—can help diversify interest rate risk while balancing cost and stability.

House Price Forecast

Based on current conditions, ANZ Bank New Zealand forecasts that:

• New Zealand house prices will decline by 2% in 2026

Future trends will largely depend on geopolitical developments:

• If the Middle East conflict escalates, house price declines could deepen
• If the situation stabilises in the near term, the market may recover more quickly

Looking ahead to 2027, a modest recovery is expected, contingent on reduced external risks and steady economic improvement.

Conclusion

Ongoing supply pressures, regional market divergence, and the inflationary and interest rate risks driven by the Middle East conflict have made the outlook for the housing market increasingly uncertain. For both home buyers and mortgage holders, it is important to take a rational approach to short-term market fluctuations, closely monitor global developments and interest rate movements, and avoid making decisions based on market sentiment alone.

We will proactively contact you as your loan approaches its review date and provide tailored restructuring advice based on the market conditions at that time. If you are considering purchasing a property, refinancing, or loan restructure, please feel free to reach out to us at any time—we are here to support you.

为了帮大家理清当前市场形势，下文将详细解读近期新西兰房市的具体变化、贷款利率的最新走势，客观分析市场现状，为你的购房规划与贷款决策提供参考依据。

房地产市场分析

2月房价短暂上涨，长期走势仍显疲软

从核心数据来看，经季节性调整后的REINZ房价指数，在2月实现了0.6%的环比上涨，这一数据让市场出现了些许乐观情绪。但拉长时间维度观察，过去10个月里，房价有8个月处于持平或下跌状态，单月小幅上涨根本无法构成持续上涨的趋势，仅仅是市场运行中的随机波动，绝非房市全面好转的拐点。

与此同时，房市交易活跃度的多项指标也印证了市场并未回暖：房屋售出周期从原本的46天延长至48天，市场去化速度放缓；新上市房源数量持续超过实际成交量，房屋库存水平不断攀升，供大于求的市场格局，直接对房价形成了明显压制；此外，通过拍卖成功售出的房屋数量持续减少，销量与库存的比值进一步走低，这些都是房市需求端尚未真正复苏的直观体现。

不仅如此，建筑许可数量的持续增加，也意味着未来一段时间内，市场将迎来更多新房供应，进一步压缩房价的上涨空间，供过于求的局面短期难以改变。

区域分化显著，南岛领跑北岛持续疲软

当前新西兰房市仍旧呈现出明显的区域分化特征，南北岛表现差距悬殊，核心原因在于两地经济基本面的差异。南岛依托农业、旅游业的产业优势，经济增长势头明显优于北岛，直接带动当地房产市场表现强劲。

从同比数据来看，过去一年南岛房价整体上涨8.6%，其中坎特伯雷地区上涨3%，奥塔哥地区上涨2.9%。反观北岛核心城市，表现则持续疲软：惠灵顿房价同比下跌3.6%，奥克兰房价同比下降1.9%。

经济利好因素初现，外部风险成最大变数

尽管房市整体承压，但新西兰国内经济已出现些许复苏迹象，为房市需求提供了一定支撑：经济逐步回暖，房主信心开始回升，就业市场压力有所缓和，同时净移民数量持续上升，带来了新增住房需求，这些因素都为房市注入了潜在的正面动力。

但外部不确定性因素，彻底打乱了房市回暖的节奏，中东冲突引发的能源危机，成为影响房市的最大风险点。近期国际能源价格急速上涨，而能源价格上涨具有极强的传导性，不仅会直接推高生活成本，还会带动食品、工业化学品、塑料等全领域商品价格上涨，引发全方位的通胀回升。

据专家预测，受此影响，今年9月季度新西兰通胀率将升至3.6%，全年GDP预计下降0.7%。面对这一局面，央行大概率不会提前上调OCR（官方现金利率），原因在于此次通胀并非经济过热导致，而是油价上涨引发的输入型通胀，此时加息只会进一步压制本就脆弱的经济，加剧经济下行风险。

房贷利率分析

即便央行不主动加息，房贷利率也已出现“自发性上涨”。受中东冲突影响，批发掉期利率大幅飙升，直接带动各大银行上调房贷利率，目前1年至3年期房贷利率涨幅已达0.06%-0.11%，且中东局势尚未出现明显降温迹象，未来房贷利率仍有进一步上涨的可能，这对购房者和房贷持有人来说，无疑是沉重的压力，也将持续抑制房市需求。

针对当前利率走势，专家给出了贷款建议：不推荐锁定超长期限房贷，除非后续出现利率超预期大幅上涨的信号，否则长期利率性价比极低。对于大多数借款人而言，2年期房贷是价值与确定性的平衡选择，利率仍低于5%，能平稳覆盖下一个经济周期，还款压力相对可控。

如果风险偏好极低，更看重还款确定性，可适当选择更长期限锁定；若希望降低贷款成本，可偏向短期利率；也可以采用多期限组合的方式，分散利率波动风险，兼顾成本与稳定性。

未来房价预测

基于当前市场与经济形势，ANZ给出了明确的房价预测：2026年新西兰房价预计下降2%。后续走势高度依赖中东冲突的发展：若冲突持续升级，能源危机进一步加剧，房价下跌幅度或将更大；若冲突能在未来一两个月内快速平息，市场有望更快回归稳定。而对于2027年，机构仍旧预测房价将迎来小幅上涨，但这一预期也建立在外部风险消退、经济稳步复苏的基础之上。

结论

供大于求的库存压力、区域分化的市场格局，叠加中东冲突引发的通胀、利率上行风险，让房市未来走势充满不确定性。对于购房者、房贷持有人而言，需理性看待短期数据波动，密切关注国际局势与利率变化，切勿盲目跟风判断市场走势。

我们会在您的贷款临近到期时主动联系您，并根据当时的市场情况为您提供个性化的贷款重组建议。如您近期有购房、贷款重组或转银行的计划，欢迎随时咨询，我们将竭诚为您服务！

Resources:

https://www.anz.co.nz/about-us/economic-markets-research/property-focus/

本月房地产市场整体仍呈现出供给充足、价格趋稳、区域分化明显的格局。央行本月决定维持OCR不变，为借款人提供了一定的喘息空间。然而，在利率未来可能上行的预期下，购房者对贷款成本的变化更加敏感，整体决策情绪趋于谨慎，观望氛围仍在持续。

接下来将我们结合最新市场数据与大家分享本月的房市与贷款利率方面的分析。

房地产市场分析

房价走势：整体趋于平稳

目前新西兰房价基本处于停滞状态。上个月市场报告已将2026年的房价涨幅预测从5%下调至2%，而最新数据表明，实际涨幅低于2%的可能性正在上升。央行本月更是预计，今年房价可能基本持平。

从趋势来看，在过去9个月中，有8个月房价持平或下跌，期间的趋势性跌幅约为每季度0.5%。1月份房价环比下降0.2%。整体来看，全国房价缺乏明显上涨动力。

市场供给充足，动能减弱

衡量市场供需平衡的重要指标——销量与库存比，通常能提前3–6个月反映房价趋势。

目前数据显示，市场供给端正在明显增强。经季节调整后，销售量有所下降；新增挂牌数量持续增加；库存仍处于高位，尤其是奥克兰库存继续上升，而南岛库存则从高位回落。

根据 Realestate.co.nz 数据，2月份新增房源达12,252套，同比增加7.8%，成为自2013年以来该网站2月份新增房源数量最多的一次。这使得市场总库存升至近11年来最高水平，截至2月底，全国共有36,357套待售房屋。库存的快速累积，意味着市场选择增多，买方议价能力增强。

在销售端，尽管挂牌活动活跃，但成交表现并未同步改善。REINZ 的拍卖成交率显示整体并无明显提升。Interest.co.nz 数据显示，2月21日至27日当周，全国共有562套住宅参与拍卖，为自去年11月底以来最活跃的一周。然而，在这562套拍卖房产中，仅有219套成功成交，整体成交率为39%，略低于去年8月以来普遍维持在40%以上的水平。

这意味着，拍卖活动增加更多反映的是供给释放，而非需求同步回暖。

因此，整体来看，供应持续增加，成交率未同步改善，销售量略有回落。这表明当前市场供给相对充足，而需求端动能有所减弱。

从需求端的驱动因素来看，去年贷款利率持续下降曾对购房需求形成明显刺激。但近期市场焦点逐渐转向“OCR是否会在今年上调”。随着利率上行预期升温，购房者情绪趋于谨慎。预期管理往往对房地产市场影响更大，而当前的加息担忧，正在削弱市场信心，这可能是房市动能减弱的重要原因之一。

复苏带来支撑，但上涨条件尚不充分

从宏观层面来看，新西兰经济正逐步从疫情后的高通胀周期过渡至温和复苏阶段。近期高频经济指标总体表现稳健，消费者信心指数已从过去四年的低谷回升至相对“正常区间”。同时，劳动力市场边际改善增强了就业安全感，净移民流入也开始回升（尽管仍处于历史较低水平）。在租赁市场方面，新租约租金在经历去年的回落后已趋于稳定，这与移民回流带来的租赁需求恢复密切相关。

整体而言，经济基本面的改善为房地产市场提供了一定的温和支撑。不过，这类利好因素目前仍被充足的住房供应所部分抵消，供需格局尚未出现明显收紧。

在货币政策层面，本月RBNZ会议决定将OCR维持在2.25%不变，并指出经济中的闲置产能将有助于推动通胀逐步回落至1%–3%目标区间的中位水平，因此短期内不会急于加息。

然而，央行同时释放信号，预计在今年年底前可能进行一次加息。当前市场对利率路径的预期正在发生微妙变化。虽然经济复苏为房地产市场提供一定基本面支撑，但选举带来的政策不确定性、潜在的利率上行预期，以及投资回报吸引力的阶段性下降，都对购房决策形成压制。

综合来看，2026年全国房价更可能维持平稳运行格局，而非出现显著上涨趋势。

各地区表现总结

房价方面（House Price Index，同比变化 YoY）

• Auckland：-2.6%
• Wellington：-3.5%
• Otago：+4.6%
• Southland：+12%
• Canterbury：+2.8%

成交量方面（Sales，月度环比变化 MoM）

• Gisborne：-16%
• Manawatu-Whanganui：-12%
• Auckland：-7%
• Wellington：-2%
• Canterbury：-8%
• Otago：0%（持平）

整体来看，南岛部分地区仍保持相对强势，而奥克兰与惠灵顿仍偏弱；同时，多数地区成交量环比走低，显示买方情绪依然谨慎，区域分化仍然明显。

贷款利率趋势

本月贷款利率走势分化：

• 6个月期下降0.20个百分点
• 1年期持平
• 18个月至5年期上升0.04–0.20个百分点
• 浮动利率维持不变

虽然长期固定利率略有上升，但考虑到OCR未来可能上调，现在锁定中长期利率仍具一定合理性。

根据批发利率走势预测，未来1至3年期利率明年的峰值仍低于当前4至5年期固定利率。因此，18个月至3年期区间依然更能兼顾成本与确定性。也正因为未来方向难以单点判断，建议借款人拆分贷款，在不同期限之间锁定，以分散风险。

结论

总结本月，供给持续释放、库存高位与成交偏弱共同指向：市场仍以买方主导，房价上涨动力不足。经济复苏带来一定支撑，但利率上行预期与选举不确定性抬升了观望情绪。短期全国房价更可能维持平稳运行，区域分化仍将延续。

我们会在您的贷款临近到期时主动联系您，并根据当时的市场情况为您提供个性化的贷款重组建议。如您近期有购房、贷款重组或转银行的计划，欢迎随时咨询，我们将竭诚为您服务！

感谢您的关注与信任！

Housing market having a buyer's summer as new listings surge | interest.co.nz

Rise in auction numbers but not in the sales rate | interest.co.nz

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房地产市场分析

房价走势：整体横盘，区域分化延续

根据 Real Estate Institute of New Zealand（REINZ） 最新房价指数数据，全国房价整体仍延续过去三年的平稳走势。经季节性调整后，房价同比仅下降0.1%，显示整体市场基本处于持平状态。

区域分化趋势依然明显。惠灵顿房价持续走弱，目前较六个月前下降约4%；奥克兰价格亦小幅回落，但跌幅相对温和。相比之下，南岛地区表现更为稳健，坎特伯雷、奥塔哥等区域房价仍保持上涨，主要受当地较强的区域经济和就业市场支撑。整体来看，全国房地产市场呈现“北弱南强”的结构性分化格局。

市场动能：供需指标显示短期仍将平稳

多项衡量市场活跃度的指标显示，短期内房价难以出现明显上涨动能。

销售量与库存比率通常领先房价趋势约3至6个月。目前该指标基本持平，反映供需关系均衡，短期价格波动空间有限。

中位销售天数维持在45天，高于长期平均水平40天，显示房产去化速度较慢，买方议价能力仍占优势。

拍卖成交率接近40%，与此前水平相当，进一步表明市场整体活跃度仍然有限。

上述指标综合反映，当前房地产市场仍处于买方市场。

购房需求被压制

2025年末销售量曾因多次OCR下调以及房贷利率下调而出现小幅回升，但进入2026年后，需求增长面临多重限制。

首先，货币政策方向出现转变。随着通胀压力上升，央行预计将于2026年底启动加息周期。房贷利率已逐步脱离低位，融资成本上升将抑制购房能力及投资需求。

其次，大选带来的政策不确定性，尤其是资本利得税相关讨论，可能促使部分投资者与买家暂缓入市，从而降低市场活跃度。

此外，人口因素亦对需求形成制约。净移民人数回落，离境人数增加，部分新西兰居民因澳洲劳动力市场更具吸引力而选择外移，住房新增需求有所减弱。

房产供应仍处高位

新挂牌房源数量长期处于近十年高位，库存充裕。建筑活动表现活跃。尽管建筑许可数量较2022年峰值回落，但人均许可数量仍处于历史平均水平之上。

近年来高密度住宅（如Townhouse）建设占比提升，加之融资成本阶段性下降及土地成本回落，开发商仍具备一定开发动力，从而持续为市场提供新增供给。供给充足在一定程度上抑制了房价上涨压力。

房产投资吸引力不足

房贷利率水平与净租金回报率之间的关系，是衡量投资吸引力的重要指标。当前租金增长温和，而房贷利率逐步上升，净租金收益率相对缺乏吸引力。这一状况预计将在未来一段时间持续，限制投资型需求的扩张。

经济复苏与通胀上涨

New Zealand Institute of Economic Research（NZIER） 数据显示，2025年下半年经济逐步复苏，GDP表现有所改善。

然而，经济复苏同时伴随更高通胀压力。2025年第四季度通胀同比增长3.1%，高于RBNZ此前预测的2.7%。通胀持续高位运行促使央行提前加息预期。市场目前预计首次OCR上调时间将由2027年提前至2026年底。

房价预测与利率策略

综合供需、政策及利率因素评估，2026年房价涨幅预测已由此前5%下调至2%。预计整体市场将延续平稳走势。2027年房价增长预测不变，保持在4.5%。

在房贷利率方面，近期走势呈现分化：18个月及以上期限固定利率上升20–45 个基点，6个月利率下降了 10 个基点，浮动利率和 1 年期固定利率基本保持不变。考虑到批发利率及未来加息预期，长期利率存在进一步上行压力。

在此环境下，多期限分散锁定策略有助于平衡成本与风险。

总结

2026年新西兰房地产市场预计延续低动能特征。经济复苏提供一定支撑，但利率上升、政策不确定性及需求放缓共同构成阻力。供需关系整体平衡，房价涨幅有限。整体来看，市场趋稳运行，短期难现显著上涨趋势。

我们会在您的贷款临近到期时主动联系您，并根据当时的市场情况为您提供个性化的贷款重组建议。如您近期有购房、贷款重组或转银行的计划，欢迎随时咨询，我们将竭诚为您服务！

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