New Zealand’s housing market lost momentum in May as rising oil prices, growing expectations of OCR hikes, and increasing global uncertainty weighed on buyer confidence. Property activity softened across the country, with fewer buyers entering the market and sales volumes continuing to decline.

受国际油价走高、国内加息预期升温、市场不确定性抬升多重因素冲击，本月房地产市场整体热度明显降温，购房者入市趋于保守，新房成交规模同步回落，整体行情呈现温和下行。与此同时，批发利率持续走高，央行OCR加息预期升温，房贷利率上行压力逐步显现。

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Since the beginning of 2026, the New Zealand housing market has shown signs of a gradual recovery, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions. House prices have been trending upward, sales activity has improved, and the previous divergence between the North Island and South Island markets has started to narrow.

2026年开年以来，新西兰房地产市场在宏观经济复苏的带动下出现阶段性回暖，房价稳步上行，市场交易活跃度有所提升，南北岛之间的分化格局也逐步改善。

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Recent escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has triggered a sharp rise in global oil prices, which in turn is driving up the cost of everyday goods and production materials. As a result, inflationary pressure is increasing.

近期中东冲突持续发酵，直接引发全球油价大幅上涨，进而带动各类民生商品、生产物资物价同步攀升，国内通胀压力随之加剧。与此同时，过去几个月贷款利率已迎来连续上涨，多重外部风险与市场变动交织，让不少人对当下经济与房产市场充满担忧，恐慌情绪逐渐蔓延。

This month, the housing market is still settling into a familiar rhythm: plenty of listings, broadly steady prices, and clear differences from region to region.

The Reserve Bank held the OCR unchanged this month, which gives borrowers a bit of breathing room. That said, the conversation in the market has shifted from “rates are falling” to “could rates rise later this year?” As a result, buyers are paying closer attention to borrowing costs and overall decision-making remains cautious.

Below is the view of the latest housing and mortgage-rate trends.

Latest Housing Market Insights

House Prices: Broadly Stable

At a national level, house prices are largely flat. Some forecasters have lowered their 2026 growth outlook (from around 5% down to ~2%), and new data suggests the chance of growth under 2% is increasing. The Reserve Bank itself has also suggested prices may be close to unchanged this year.

Recent price patterns support this: 8 of the past 9 months have been flat or down, implying a gentle downward drift of roughly 0.5% per quarter. In January, prices eased 0.2% month-on-month. Overall, the market still lacks a strong catalyst for a broad-based price lift.

Supply Is Rising, While Demand Is Softening

A useful early indicator for housing is the sales-to-inventory ratio, which often signals price direction three to six months ahead. Right now, that balance is telling a clear story: supply is building.

-New listings continue to rise

-Total stock remains high

-Auckland inventory is still increasing, while South Island stock has started to ease from elevated levels

According to Realestate.co.nz, February saw 12,252 new listings, up 7.8% year-on-year—the strongest February result on the platform since 2013. Total inventory has climbed to its highest level in nearly 11 years, reaching 36,357 properties for sale nationwide by the end of February. More listings mean more choice, and that typically strengthens buyers’ negotiating power.

On the demand side, sales activity has not improved at the same pace. Auction data supports this. Interest.co.nz reported that during the week of 21–27 February, 562 homes went to auction nationwide—the busiest week since late November. Of those, 219 sold, for a clearance rate of 39%, slightly below the 40%+ level that has often been seen since last August.

In other words, auctions are busier—but that appears to be driven more by more homes coming to market than a clear surge in buyer demand.

Recovery provides a floor, but not enough to drive a strong upswing

On the macro side, the economy is gradually moving from the post-pandemic inflation phase into a milder recovery. Several indicators have been steady: consumer confidence has lifted from multi-year lows, the labour market has improved at the margin, and net migration has begun to recover (though still low historically). Rents on new tenancies have also stabilised after last year’s decline, likely supported by improved rental demand as migration picks up.

These factors help provide a moderate underpinning for housing. However, that support is still being offset by high levels of supply, which keeps pressure off prices.

From a policy perspective, the RBNZ kept the OCR at 2.25% and noted that spare capacity should help inflation continue tracking back toward the midpoint of the 1%–3% target range. At the same time, it also signalled that a rate increase later this year remains possible—so market expectations for rates are starting to shift.

When you combine that with election-related uncertainty and reduced near-term investor appeal, it’s easy to see why buyers remain cautious. Overall, 2026 still looks more like a year of stability than a year of strong nationwide growth.

Regional Snapshot

House Price Index (YoY)

• Auckland: -2.6%
• Wellington: -3.5%
• Otago: +4.6%
• Southland: +12%
• Canterbury: +2.8%

Sales (MoM)

• Gisborne: -16%
• Manawatu-Whanganui: -12%
• Auckland: -7%
• Wellington: -2%
• Canterbury: -8%
• Otago: 0% (flat)

Overall, parts of the South Island remain relatively resilient, while Auckland and Wellington are still softer. Many regions are seeing lower month-on-month sales, which reinforces the view that buyers are staying cautious and regional divergence is likely to continue.

Mortgage Rate Trends

This month’s rate moves were split by term:

-6-month fixed fell around 0.20%

-1-year fixed was broadly unchanged

-18-month to 5-year fixed rates rose about 0.04%–0.20%

-Floating rates were unchanged

While longer fixed terms have edged up, locking in medium-to-longer terms can still make sense for borrowers who value certainty—especially if the OCR is expected to rise later.

Wholesale pricing expectations also suggest that the peak for 1–3-year terms next year may still sit below today’s 4–5-year fixed rates. For many borrowers, 18 months to 3 years continues to offer a strong balance between cost and certainty. And because the rate path is hard to call with confidence, splitting lending across different terms remains a practical way to manage risk.

Conclusion

In short, high supply and softer sales continue to keep the market buyer-friendly and limit upside pressure on prices. The economic recovery provides support, but expectations around future rate moves and election uncertainty are still encouraging a wait-and-see approach. Nationally, we expect prices to remain broadly stable in the near term, with regional differences continuing.

We will proactively contact you as your loan approaches expiry and provide personalised refinancing or restructuring advice based on prevailing market conditions. If you are planning a purchase, refinancing, or loan restructures, please feel free to reach out at any time — we are always happy to help.

Thank you for your trust and continued support.

For clients with an LVR of 80% or below (including both new and existing customers), pre-approval is currently available with ASB, ANZ and Westpac. If you are considering purchasing a property, now is an ideal time to plan and secure pre-approval. Please feel free to contact us for assistance.

Latest Housing Market Insights

Price Trends: Flat Overall, Ongoing Regional Divergence

According to the latest House Price Index released by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), national house prices have broadly maintained the stable trend observed over the past three years. After seasonal adjustment, prices declined only 0.1% year-on-year, indicating that the market remains largely flat.

Regional differences remain pronounced. Wellington continues to weaken, with prices down approximately 4% over the past six months. Auckland has also seen modest declines, though losses have been relatively mild. In contrast, the South Island has demonstrated greater resilience, with Canterbury and Otago continuing to record price growth, supported by stronger regional economic activity and employment conditions.

Market Momentum: Supply and Demand Indicators Suggest Short-Term Stability

Several key activity indicators suggest limited upward momentum for house prices in the near term.

The sales-to-inventory ratio, which typically leads price trends by three to six months, is currently flat, indicating balanced supply and demand and limited room for short-term price fluctuations.

Median days to sell remain at 45 days, above the long-term average of 40 days, suggesting slower absorption rates and stronger buyer negotiating power.

Auction clearance rates are close to 40%, similar to previous levels, further indicating subdued overall market activity.

Taken together, these indicators confirm that the market remains firmly in buyer territory.

Demand Remains Constrained

Sales volumes improved modestly in late 2025 following several OCR cuts and lower mortgage rates. However, demand growth in 2026 faces multiple headwinds.

First, the monetary policy outlook has shifted. With inflation pressures rising, the Reserve Bank is expected to begin tightening again by late 2026. Mortgage rates have gradually moved off their lows, and higher borrowing costs are likely to weigh on both owner-occupier affordability and investor demand.

Second, policy uncertainty related to the general election, particularly discussions around capital gains taxation, may cause some buyers and investors to delay decisions, reducing market activity.

Additionally, population trends are contributing to softer demand. Net migration has declined, departures have increased, and some New Zealand residents are relocating to Australia for stronger labour market opportunities, resulting in weaker incremental housing demand.

Supply Remains Elevated

New listings continue to sit near decade highs, keeping inventory levels ample. Construction activity also remains relatively strong. Although building consents have retreated from the 2022 peak, per capita approvals are still above historical averages.

Higher-density developments such as townhouses now account for a larger share of new supply. Combined with temporarily lower financing costs and easing land prices, developers remain incentivised to bring additional stock to market. This steady pipeline of supply continues to cap price growth.

Investment Appeal Remains Limited

The relationship between mortgage rates and net rental yields remains a key measure of investment attractiveness. Currently, rental growth is moderate while mortgage rates are gradually rising, leaving net yields relatively unattractive.

This dynamic is expected to persist for some time and is likely to constrain investor participation.

Economic Recovery and Rising Inflation

Data from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) indicates that the economy began recovering in the second half of 2025, with GDP showing improvement.

However, recovery has been accompanied by stronger inflation pressures. Annual inflation reached 3.1% in Q4 2025, exceeding the Reserve Bank’s earlier forecast of 2.7%. Persistent inflation has brought forward expectations of monetary tightening, with markets now anticipating the first OCR increase by late 2026 rather than 2027.

Price Outlook and Interest Rate Strategy

Taking into account supply-demand dynamics, policy factors, and interest rate trends, the 2026 house price growth forecast has been revised down from 5% to 2%, suggesting continued stability. The 2027 forecast remains unchanged at 4.5%.

Mortgage rate movements have recently diverged. Fixed rates of 18 months and longer have increased by 20–45 basis points, while 6 months rates have fallen by 10 basis points. Floating and 1 year fixed rates remain largely unchanged. Given wholesale rate movements and tightening expectations, longer-term rates face further upward pressure.

In this environment, a diversified multi-term fixing strategy may help balance costs and manage risk.

Summary

The New Zealand property market is expected to remain low momentum through 2026. While economic recovery provides some support, rising interest rates, policy uncertainty, and softer demand continue to act as constraints. With supply and demand broadly balanced, price growth is likely to remain limited, and significant short-term gains appear unlikely.

We will proactively contact you as your loan approaches expiry and provide personalised refinancing or restructuring advice based on prevailing market conditions. If you are planning a purchase, refinancing, or loan restructures, please feel free to reach out at any time — we are always happy to help.

近期，新西兰房地产市场整体延续平稳运行态势。房价走势分化明显，买卖双方力量趋于均衡；与此同时，利率上升预期、政策不确定性以及人口流动变化，也正在对购房需求与投资决策产生新的影响。

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At the same time, major banks have launched short-term cashback offers of up to 1.5% to attract new customers. These promotions have significantly boosted application volumes, resulting in slower turnaround times.

Our office will be closed from 24 December to 7 January for the Christmas and New Year holiday period. Please plan ahead and contact us early if you have lending needs.

Wishing you all a wonderful Christmas and a very happy New Year!

Latest Housing Market Insights

Soft overall growth with clear regional divergence

Nationwide house prices slipped 0.1% in October, with annual growth moderating to just 0.3%—below earlier expectations.

• Wellington saw renewed weakness
• Auckland and northern regions were broadly flat
• The South Island continued to outperform, recording steady increases

Sales and new listings both rising

Seasonally adjusted sales rose in October, and new listings continued to climb, reaching their second-highest level since 2021. Because new listings are increasing slightly faster than sales, total inventory has reached a 10-year high, putting further pressure on price growth.

Key drivers of elevated listings include:
• Historically high levels of new housing supply, exceeding population growth for several years
• Outflow of residents selling homes before moving overseas
• Investors exiting due to higher holding costs (rates, insurance, maintenance), while rental growth remains muted or even negative in some areas

Indicators still point to a buyer-friendly market

• Sales-to-inventory ratio: Stable throughout the year, suggesting stable house market over the next 3–6 months
• Median days to sell: 45 days (vs long-term average of 40), indicating buyers retain the advantage
• Auction clearance rates: Improving gradually, showing early signs of returning confidence

Overall, the market remains well-supplied, price movements are modest, and conditions are balanced but still lean toward buyers.

Interest Rates and Outlook

OCR outlook

The OCR was reduced to 2.25% in November, and most economists expect it to remain unchanged through 2026. Inflation is projected to fall from the current 3.0% to 2.9% next quarter, and to around 2.2% in early 2026—close to the midpoint of the RBNZ target band.

With most of the easing cycle now complete, markets have begun discussing the possibility of rate hikes in the future. Some forecasts suggest small increases may begin in early 2027, though uncertainty remains high.

Mortgage rate outlook

Despite OCR cuts, wholesale swap rates have rebounded from 2.44% in October to around 2.82%. Wholesale rates are a key input in how banks price fixed terms, which explains why fixed rates have not fallen further.

Market sentiment is shifting from “rate cuts” to “rate stability and gradual increases.” Starting in 2026, mortgage rates are expected to trend higher in a slow, moderate fashion. For this reason, locking in part of your lending for 2–5 years may help manage future refix risk. A staggered structure can also offer greater flexibility.

House Price Outlook

Most forecasts point to modest house price growth of around 5% in 2026, supported by a recovering economy. However, several factors are expected to keep gains moderate:
• Strong construction activity and ample new supply
• Higher holding costs (insurance, rates, maintenance) weighing on demand
• Wider adoption of Debt-to-Income (DTI) restrictions, which may limit borrowing power for some buyers
• The end of the multi-decade global low-interest-rate era in 2021, removing a key driver of long-term price escalation

Summary

The housing market is stable, well-supplied, and showing mild, steady movements. Mortgage rates appear close to the bottom of this cycle, making it an opportune time to review loan structures and consider medium- to long-term fixed options.

As we head into the busiest period of the year for banks—with many lenders pausing certain pre-approvals—processing times are noticeably slower. If you are planning to purchase, refix, restructure, or make lump-sum repayments, please reach out early so we can help you avoid holiday delays.

As we enter the final quarter of 2025, the New Zealand property market is gradually emerging from its winter slowdown. Overall, the market shows signs of a moderate recovery, though conditions remain largely in favour of buyers.

Recent surveys suggest that first-home buyers continue to be the main source of demand, while investor activity remains subdued.

Easing interest rates, more flexible lending policies, and lower housing cost inflation have helped to restore some confidence. However, employment uncertainty and political factors continue to limit short-term momentum.

Overall, the market is shifting from “stabilising at the bottom” to “a mild upward phase.”

Overall Market Conditions

A firm buyer’s market

According to NZHL’s latest survey of 253 agents, the residential market remains firmly buyer-led. Apart from a brief rebound in late 2023, this buyer’s market has persisted since the end of 2021.

Rising buyer activity

• Open-home attendance: 32% of agents reported higher visitor numbers (up from 28% last month) — the strongest result since February.
• Auction participation: 21% saw increased attendance, suggesting improving engagement and confidence.
  Overall, market activity has been recovering since its low point in May. With one-year fixed rates now below 4.5%, the spring season is expected to further lift buyer interest.

First-home buyers leading the demand

More than half of agents (53%) observed an increase in first-home buyer activity.
Since early 2023, younger buyers have taken advantage of abundant listings, lower competition, and improved access to credit — a steady trend that continues to underpin demand.

Weak investor sentiment

Only 7% of agents reported more investor activity (down from 14% last month), while 21% said investors were selling properties.
Key reasons include:

• Rising rates, insurance, and maintenance costs
• Greater need to free retirement capital
• Lower expected investment returns

House Prices and Regional Trends

National price stabilisation

In September, the REINZ House Price Index remained flat (0.0% m/m) and slightly up +0.3% y/y.
Only 11% of agents reported falling prices (down from 13%), indicating the downturn has largely ended, entering a flat phase.
Buyers remain price-sensitive and pragmatic, often pausing when offers are rejected.

Regional divergence

• South Island: Best performance (+4% y/y), supported by population and income growth and a strong agricultural base.
• Auckland: Stable in recent months after a brief dip between May and July.
• Wellington: Declined again in September after six months of stability.
• Northland, Waikato, and Manawatū-Whanganui: Largely unchanged y/y.

Market Activity Indicators

• Sales volumes: Near long-term average but slightly lower recently, especially in Auckland.
• Listings: New listings remain steady; total inventory remains high.
• Sales-to-inventory ratio: Balanced, suggesting modest price movement through year-end.
• Days to sell: Median 44 days (seasonally adjusted), improving from 46 last year but above the long-term average of 40 days.
• Auction clearance: Rising, partly due to seasonal effects but also reflecting returning confidence.

Interest Rates and Lending Policy Environment

Interest rate outlook

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points in October to 2.5%, and ANZ expects a further 25 bp reduction in November to 2.25%, which is likely to mark the end of the current easing cycle.

If economic conditions weaken further, an additional 50 bp cut remains possible.

Housing-related inflation — including rents, insurance, and maintenance costs — has eased notably, reducing upward pressure on property prices and giving the RBNZ more flexibility in its policy stance.

Economist Tony Alexander noted:

While GDP is forecast to rise from −1% to +3%, it remains uncertain whether inflation can sustainably return to 2% as the RBNZ expects. With the labour market tightening again, inflation could re-emerge.

He suggests that if five-year fixed mortgage rates fall below 5%, it may be worth locking in longer-term rates as a hedge against future increases.

Easing of high-LVR lending limits

From 1 December 2025, the RBNZ will relax the proportion of high-LVR loans banks can issue:

• For owner-occupiers, the cap on loans of over 80% LVR will increase from 20% to 25%.
• For investors, the cap on loans of over 70% LVR will increase from 5% to 10%.

It means that banks will have greater flexibility to approve such high LVR loans.
However, given current buyer caution, this change is unlikely to trigger immediate price growth.

Outlook and Uncertainties

Forecast upgrades for 2025

Economists have revised 2025 price forecasts upward from 0% to +0.5% - 1.0% y/y, with 2026 remaining at +5.0%.
This reflects a mildly improving economy, lower OCR, and falling mortgage rates supporting gradual recovery.

Policy uncertainty: Capital gains tax proposal

The Labour Party has announced plans to propose a 28% capital gains tax on non-owner-occupied residential and commercial properties during the 2026 election, with implementation from 1 July 2027.
This potential policy could affect investor sentiment in coming years.

Summary

The New Zealand housing market is in the early stage of a moderate recovery.
Buyers continue to dominate, with first-home purchasers driving demand while investors remain cautious.
Prices are expected to stay stable in the short term and gradually rise over the long term.

With interest rates trending lower, LVR rules relaxing, and housing-cost inflation easing, fundamentals are improving — yet employment risks and policy uncertainty remain key factors.

进入2025年第四季度，新西兰房地产市场正逐步走出冬季低迷，整体呈现出温和复苏、买方主导的格局。多项调查显示，首次购房者仍是市场主要推动力，而投资者活动持续低迷。
利率下行、贷款政策放宽以及住房成本通胀减弱，为市场注入了一定信心；然而，就业不确定性与政治因素仍限制了短期内的上涨动力。总体而言，市场正在从“底部企稳”向“温和回升”过渡。

房地产市场分析

1.市场总体状况

-买方市场稳固延续
根据 NZHL 最新调查报告（253 份中介反馈），新西兰住宅市场仍由买方主导。仅 25% 的中介 表示卖家更希望促成交易。除 2023 年底短暂回暖外，买方市场自 2021 年底以来持续至今。

-买家活动增加、市场逐步复苏

开放看房：32% 的中介报告看房人数上升（较上月 28% 增长），为今年 2 月以来最强。

拍卖出席：21% 的中介报告参与人数上升，显示市场活跃度改善。
市场在 5 月触底后逐步恢复，随着 一年期固定利率降至 4.5% 以下，预计春季买家兴趣将继续上升。

-首次购房者主导市场
有 53% 的中介 表示首次购房者数量增加。自 2023 年初以来，年轻买家利用房源充足、竞争较少、价格相对低位及信贷条件改善积极入市，目前这一趋势仍稳固。

-投资者低迷
仅 7% 的中介 观察到投资者增加（上月为 14%），但有 21% 的中介 表示投资者正在出售房产。
投资者减少的主要原因包括：

• 地税、保险和维护费用持续上升；
• 退休资金需求增加；
• 投资回报预期下降。
  
  

2.  房价走势与地区差异

-全国房价企稳

9 月 REINZ 房价指数环比持平（0.0%），同比小幅上涨 +0.3%。

仅11% 的中介 认为房价仍在下降（较上月 13% 改善），显示市场下跌阶段已结束，进入横盘阶段。

买家仍倾向理性出价，议价空间存在，报价被拒后普遍选择观望。

-地区表现分化

南岛：表现最强，同比上涨约 4%，受益于人口与收入增长及农业强劲。

奥克兰：近月房价稳定（5–7 月曾短暂下跌）。

惠灵顿：连续六个月稳定后，9 月再度下滑。

北部地区（Northland、Waikato、Manawatu-Whanganui）：同比去年基本持平。

3.市场活跃度与交易指标

• 销售量：接近长期平均，但近月略降，尤其在奥克兰。
• 房源供应：新挂牌数量稳定，库存仍偏高。
• 销售量与库存比：保持平衡，预示到年底房价仍将温和。
• 销售周期：中位销售天数为 44 天（经季调），略优于去年平均 46 天，但仍高于长期平均 40 天。
• 拍卖成交率：呈上升趋势，虽有季节因素的影响，但也表明市场信心正在恢复。

贷款利率与政策环境

-贷款利率

新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）10月初降息50个基点（至 2.5%），ANZ 预计 11月将再降25个基点至 2.25%，这可能标志降息周期结束。若经济数据继续疲软，仍存在再降50点的可能。

同时，房屋持有成本（租金、保险、维护等）的通胀压力显著减弱，对房价的抑制作用正在下降，这也为进一步降息提供了空间。

经济学家 Tony Alexander 指出：
当新西兰 GDP 从 -1% 上升至 +3% 时，通胀是否能按照RBNZ在八月声明里提到的降至 2% 并长期稳定仍存疑。随着劳动力市场疲软迹象消退、资源趋紧，通胀可能再度抬头。
因此他建议，若贷款利率 5 年期低于 5%，他会考虑锁定5年的固定利率以对冲未来风险。

-高LVR贷款发放比例放宽

自 12 月 1 日起，RBNZ 将放宽银行发放高 LVR 贷款的比例限制：

• 银行可发放的 自住房超过 80% LVR 的贷款配额比例上限 由 20% 提高至 25%；
• 银行可发放的 投资房超过 70% LVR 的贷款配额比例上限 由 5% 提高至 10%。

这里的“配额比例”指的是银行在总放贷中可用于高 LVR 贷款的占比，即银行能提供高 LVR 贷款的机会增多。

不过，目前买家仍普遍谨慎，短期内不会带来房价的立即上涨。

未来房价预测与不确定性

-2025年预测上调：
经济学家将原先2025年“零增长”预测上调至同比 +0.5%～1.0%；2026年预测维持 +5.0%。反映经济温和复苏以及OCR持续下调及房贷利率下降对房市的支撑。

-政策不确定性：资本利得税预期
工党宣布将在 2026年大选 中提出对非自住房（住宅与商业）征收 28% 资本利得税。自 2027年7月1日起 生效。这一政策也许对投资者产生影响。

总结

整体来看，新西兰房地产市场处于企稳回升早期阶段。买方市场仍主导局面，首次购房者支撑需求端，投资者持续低迷。房价短期温和、长期有望稳步回升。在利率下降、LVR放宽、住房成本通胀缓解的背景下，市场基本面逐步改善，但仍需警惕就业与政策不确定性带来的潜在风险。

我们会在您的贷款临近到期时主动联系您，并根据当时的市场情况为您提供个性化的贷款重组建议。如您近期有购房、贷款重组或转银行的计划，欢迎随时咨询，我们将竭诚为您服务！

Auction numbers flat but slightly fewer sell under the hammer | interest.co.nz

Property Focus | For homeowners and investors

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7月份OCR没有下调，新西兰房地产市场整体仍处于观望调整阶段。但是市场贷款的数量在慢慢增加。

由于申请人数的增加 Westpac and BNZ 目前只是接受本银行客人的贷款预批的申请，

房价温和波动，买家情绪谨慎，虽然市场尚未出现明显反弹，但在某些角度，交易与贷款数据也显示出一定活跃度。

本期我们将为您分析最新的房市动态与贷款利率走势。

房地产市场回顾

-房价走势横盘，增长动能减弱

REINZ数据显示，2025年6月经季节性调整后的房价指数环比下降0.3%，5月仅上涨0.1%，七个月累计涨幅仅1.1%。房价缺乏上涨动力，反映出市场仍在震荡筑底阶段。

不过，虽然普遍地区房价都下降，但有个别地区房价表现相对可以：

Canterbury (+0.3% m/m),

Waikato (+0.1% m/m),

West Coast (+0.4% m/m)

and Otago (flat).

-房源供应充足，销量略降

6月份新增房源的数量依然处于该季节正常范围的高位。但是销量略微下降一点， 可能是区域性地区的库存正在减少，另一个可能是因为有卖家选择将未售出的房产暂时撤下市场，打算等到需求回暖时再重新挂牌。但总体来说，销售与挂牌比维持稳定。

-但销售效率仍较低

房屋中位售出时间为46天左右，持续高于历史长期平均。

拍卖成交率稳定在35%-40%，未出现明显回升信号。

-房价预期下调

ANZ在之前发布的6月份的property focus中已经下调房价涨幅预期为今年是2.5%，2026年是5%。 但是由于这个月份数据不乐观导致之前的房价涨幅预测可能又会进一步下调。同样的Westpac经济学家也下调了他们对于房价涨幅的预测：2025 年房价增长预测从 6.2% 下调至 4%，但仍预计 2026 年增长 6%。

-另一种角度下的市场表现

虽然从价格和销售效率来看市场整体偏弱，但资深财经记者 David Hargreaves 提出的另一角度值得关注。

他分析了2025年上半年抵押贷款数据后认为，市场实际活跃度已恢复至疫情前的“正常水平”，甚至在某些维度更高。例如：

• 2025年上半年用于购房的贷款笔数为44,728笔，与2019年（44,150笔）基本持平；
• 更换贷款银行（refinancing）所产生的新贷款达110.63亿纽币，创历史新高；
• 首次购房者（FHB）贷款金额超过85亿纽币，占所有购房贷款的三分之一，显示FHB群体仍十分活跃。

这些数据表明，尽管市场表面平静，但贷款与交易层面的活跃度不可忽视，说明房地产市场仍在“低调复苏”。

市政税上涨速度放缓

市政费（Council rates）可能会继续上涨，但由于一些经济压力的缓解，上涨的速度可能会放缓。

• 平均年涨幅为7%-12%；
• 多数市议会预计未来几年仍将每年上涨5%-7%。

贷款利率趋势分析

-OCR仍有下调预期

-房贷利率无明显变化

• 1至4年期固定利率本月保持稳定；
• 5年期固定利率出现轻微下降；
• 浮动利率暂无明显变动。

值得注意的是，虽然预测OCR持续下调，但由于银行房贷利率更多参考长期批发利率（受全球利率影响），实际下降空间相对有限。

对于想在更低点锁定利率的客户来说，仍有一定的时间可以等待利率触底。但是由于无法预估最终触底的时间，最保险是的将贷款分散锁定不一样期限来对冲利率风险。

总结

我们会在您的贷款临近到期时主动联系您，并根据当时的市场情况为您提供个性化的贷款重组建议。如您近期有购房、贷款重组或转银行的计划，欢迎随时咨询，我们将竭诚为您服务！