As we move into the second half of 2026, national house prices remain broadly stable, while the North and South Islands are showing different price trends.

On one side, housing market activity continues to cool, with both buyers and sellers adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach. This has constrained significant movements in house prices. On the other side, falling oil prices have improved economic confidence and eased market pressures, helping to lift previously pessimistic market sentiment.

At the same time, market attention has shifted back to the future path of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) — whether the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will raise rates, when any increase may occur, and how large it may be. These factors are likely to become key variables influencing the direction of house prices.

This report analyses housing market developments to date and the outlook for mortgage interest rates, providing reference points for home loan strategies, property purchasing decisions, and asset allocation.

Housing Market Analysis

Stable National Market with Continued Regional Divergence

The latest industry data indicates that national house prices have entered a broadly balanced and stable phase, with upward and downward pressures largely offsetting each other and little sign of significant short-term price movements.

The seasonally adjusted REINZ House Price Index shows that national house prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month in May 2026, while remaining 0.5% below the same period last year. Cotality data indicates that house prices declined by 0.2% in June compared with May and were 0.9% lower than in June last year. These movements remain relatively small, suggesting that the overall housing market is broadly stable.

However, regional market performance differs considerably, with a clear divergence between the North and South Islands. According to ANZ’s latest housing market report, Auckland’s house price index rose by 0.4% over the past three months, while remaining 2.1% lower year-on-year. Wellington also recorded a 0.4% increase over the past three months, but prices remained 3.4% below a year earlier. Its longer-term downward trend has yet to reverse, leaving Wellington among the weaker housing markets nationwide.

By contrast, the South Island market has maintained relatively solid upward momentum. In Canterbury, the house price index increased by 1.3% over the latest three-month period and by 2.9% year-on-year.

In simple terms, the current housing market is characterised by continued weakness in Wellington, broadly stable and fluctuating conditions in Auckland and other parts of the North Island, and stronger price growth across the South Island.

Housing Market Activity Cools as Multiple Factors Balance Price Pressures

The current stability in house prices largely reflects rising caution among both buyers and sellers. Slower market activity has offset both upward and downward price pressures.

Against a backdrop of heightened global and domestic economic uncertainty, buyers and sellers have become increasingly cautious in their decision-making, while overall market activity has continued to soften. National house sales declined by 2% from the previous month, indicating weaker buyer participation. At the same time, new property listings also decreased, suggesting that many sellers are choosing to delay selling and wait for greater market clarity.

In addition, the seasonally adjusted auction clearance rate has declined, while properties are taking longer to sell and market absorption has slowed.

The simultaneous caution of buyers and sellers, together with weaker transaction activity, has in turn reduced the risk of a sharp decline in house prices. On one side, underlying demand from first-home buyers and households seeking to upgrade continues to provide support to the lower end of the market. On the other side, sellers delaying listings has limited downward pressure on prices. These forces have largely offset each other, keeping national house prices within a stable range without a clear upward or downward trend.

The recent sharp decline in international oil prices has also become an important positive factor supporting housing market stability. Earlier tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, contributing to stagnant New Zealand economic growth in the second quarter and weakening market confidence. More recently, improved global oil supply conditions and easing tensions in the Middle East have driven oil prices lower.

The decline in oil prices has helped restore consumer confidence and offset some of the negative effects of broader economic uncertainty, providing additional support for a stable housing market.

OCR Rate Hike Expectations and an Upward Interest Rate Trend

ANZ noted in its latest report that although lower oil prices have eased inflationary pressures, the underlying case for OCR increases has not disappeared.

Before the increase in oil prices, the RBNZ had already assessed inflation as elevated and anticipated future OCR increases. ANZ previously forecast three 25-basis-point increases in July, September, and October, which would take the OCR to 3%.

However, the unexpected decline in oil prices has significantly reduced upward inflation pressure. The market increasingly believes that the RBNZ may not need to tighten monetary policy aggressively and could allow more time to assess incoming economic data.

Against this backdrop, ANZ continues to expect an OCR increase in July, although there is now less certainty around both the size of the increase and the pace of subsequent tightening. If economic data remains weak through the third and fourth quarters of 2026, the RBNZ is likely to slow the pace of rate increases.

Meanwhile, prominent economist Tony Alexander has stated in his latest report that the first OCR increase of the year may be delayed until September, later than ANZ’s earlier expectation of a July increase. Nevertheless, his report also indicates that New Zealand interest rates are expected to follow a gradual upward trend overall during 2026.

ANZ had previously forecast that national house prices would decline by approximately 2% in 2026, reflecting factors including expected interest rate increases, election-related uncertainty, and the oil price shock. With oil prices now falling, pressures on both the economy and the housing market have eased, significantly reducing downside risks to house prices. As a result, full-year housing market performance may prove stronger than previously expected.

Employment Confidence Remains an Important Factor for Housing Market Recovery

Although the housing market has stabilised and some pressures have eased, it remains some distance from a broad-based and sustained recovery. A key constraint continues to be weak confidence in employment and household income.

Tony Alexander has emphasised in his analysis that employment confidence is an important factor supporting housing market recovery. As labour market conditions improve and household incomes become more stable, buyer confidence is likely to recover more fully, helping to support demand from first-home buyers, owner-occupiers seeking to upgrade, and investors.

At present, employment confidence remains weak and is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term. With New Zealand’s general election scheduled for November, the market is widely expected to remain cautious while awaiting greater clarity around future government direction and economic policy.

This suggests that the housing market is likely to remain broadly flat and regionally divided for the remainder of 2026, rather than entering a nationwide recovery. A broader and more meaningful recovery in the New Zealand housing market is therefore more likely to emerge in 2027.

Mortgage Rate Analysis

Based on current OCR expectations, mortgage interest rates are expected to follow a gradual upward trend this year.

Recent movements in mortgage rates have been relatively limited, with some banks making modest reductions to short-term fixed mortgage rates. The main reason is that lower oil prices have contributed to a decline in wholesale interest rates, creating some short-term relief for borrowers.

However, from a longer-term perspective, the broader expectation of a gradual increase in the OCR remains unchanged. Market expectations for future rate increases have already been incorporated into pricing, which is why longer-term fixed mortgage rates remain significantly higher than shorter-term rates.

Fixing for a longer term currently comes at a relatively high cost, while short-term rates carry greater uncertainty. Against this backdrop, splitting a mortgage across different fixed-rate terms remains a reasonable approach to diversifying interest rate risk.

Summary

Overall, New Zealand’s housing market is expected to maintain a pattern of broad national stability and regional divergence during the second half of 2026.

Falling oil prices should help ease economic pressures and reduce the risk of further house price declines. However, inflationary pressures have not fully disappeared, and the OCR is still expected to follow an upward path. As a result, mortgage interest rates continue to face upward pressure, which may constrain housing demand and limit the scope for a stronger rebound in house prices.

迈入2026年年中，全国房价整体走势平缓，但南北岛各城市冷暖不均，区域分化鲜明。一边是交易市场持续降温，买卖双方观望情绪浓厚，制衡房价大幅波动；另一边是油价回落提振经济信心、缓解市场压力，让原本偏悲观市场情绪改善。与此同时，市场焦点再度转向OCR政策路径——是否加息、何时加息以及加息幅度，这将成为影响房价走势的关键变量。

接下来，本文会分析截止本月，房市变化以及贷款利率的走势，为购房者的房贷策略，置业与资产配置提供参考。

房地产市场分析

全国房市整体企稳，南北区域分化格局显著

最新行业数据表明全国房价已进入平稳制衡阶段，涨跌动能相互抵消，短期无大幅波动趋势。

经季节性调整的REINZ房价指数显示，2026年5月全国房价环比微涨0.3%，较去年同期小幅下降0.5%。 Cotality 统计数据表明6月房价环比5月回落0.2%，同比去年6月下跌0.9%。幅度很小，整体来看房市是平稳状态。

然而，区域市场走势截然不同，南北分化特征突出。根据ANZ银行最近房产报告里提供的最近三个月房价指数变化：奥克兰房价小幅上涨0.4%，同比下跌2.1%；惠灵顿近期房价同样环比上涨0.4%，但同比跌幅达3.4%，长期下行趋势尚未扭转，仍是全国房市的弱势区域。

与之形成鲜明对比的是南岛市场，上涨势头持续稳固。其中坎特伯雷地区近三个月房价指数涨幅达1.3%，同比涨幅高达2.9%。简单来说，目前房市呈现惠灵顿持续走弱、奥克兰及北岛区域平稳震荡、南岛上涨的差异化格局。

市场交易降温，多重因素制衡房价走势

当前房市之所以维持平稳横盘，源于买卖双方观望情绪升温、市场交易降温，对冲了涨跌两端的动能。

受全球及国内经济不确定性加剧影响，购房者与售房者决策意愿明显谨慎，市场整体活跃度持续回落。数据显示，全国房屋销售量较上月减少2%，反映出买家入市积极性降低；同时，新房源挂牌数量缩减，意味着多数卖家选择暂缓出售、观望后市。除此之外，季节性调整后的房屋拍卖成交率走低，房产成交周期拉长、去化速度变慢。

买卖双方同步观望、交易活跃度回落，反而缓解了房价大幅下跌的压力。一方面买家刚需、改善需求仍有支撑，托底房价底部；另一方面卖家暂缓出售，压制房价下行空间，相互制衡，最终让全国房价锁定在平稳区间，无明显涨跌趋势。

而近期国际油价大幅回落，成为支撑房市企稳的关键利好。此前中东局势紧张推升油价，导致新西兰第二季度经济增长陷入停滞，市场信心低迷；如今全球石油供应保障提升、中东局势降温，油价顺势下跌，有效修复了消费者信心，对冲了部分经济不确定性带来的负面影响，为房市平稳运行提供了支撑。

OCR预期加息，利率走势上升

ANZ银行在最新报告指出，即便当前油价回落缓解通胀压力，但央行加息逻辑并未消失。在本轮油价上涨周期启动前， RBNZ已预判通胀处于高位，并规划OCR加息。ANZ之前预测7月、9月、10月三次加息，每次上调25个基点，最终将OCR拉升至3%。

不过油价的突然下跌，大幅缓解了国内通胀上行压力，市场普遍认为央行无需激进加息，可预留更多时间观察经济数据。基于此，ANZ银行认为OCR仍会在7月进行加息，但加息幅度和之后的加息节奏的确定性有所降低。若2026年第三、四季度经济数据持续走弱，RBNZ大概率放缓加息步伐。

与此同时，知名经济学家Tony Alexander在其最新报告明确指出，本年度OCR首次加息时间或将延后至9月，晚于ANZ最初7月加息的预判。但报告说整体来看，2026年新西兰利率将呈现缓慢上行的整体趋势。

此前ANZ银行基于加息、大选、油价冲击等因素，预测2026年全国房价将小幅下跌2%。而目前油价回落有效缓解了经济与房市压力，房市下跌风险大幅降低，全年整体表现有望优于此前预期。

就业信心为房市复苏的重要因素之一

尽管当前房市企稳、压力缓解，但距离全面回暖、持续上涨仍有明显距离，核心制约因素是就业与居民收入信心不足。

Tony Alexander在其分析报告中强调，房地产市场的复苏，本质依托于居民的就业信心。只有就业形势向好、收入持续稳定，购房者的入市信心才会全面修复，刚需、改善、投资需求才会集中释放。

而目前市场就业信心持续低迷，且短期难以改善。结合今年11月新西兰大选的时间节点，市场普遍观望新政走向、经济政策调整，就业信心要到大选结束后才会出现明显修复。这也意味着，2026年剩余时间房市仍以横盘分化为主，难以出现整体性复苏，新西兰房市的全面回暖、真正复苏，大概率要等到2027年。

房贷利率走势

结合OCR预期，今年房贷利率将呈现缓慢上涨的趋势。

近期国内银行房贷利率波动较小，部分银行短期房贷利率出现小幅下调。核心原因是油价回落带动市场批发利率下行，短期释放利率红利。但从长期维度来看，OCR缓慢上行的大趋势未变，市场对未来加息的预期早已计入定价，因此长期固定房贷利率显著高于短期利率。

订长期利率成本会很高，短期利率确定性低。因此分期限锁定仍旧是一个合理分散风险的办法。

总结

整体来看，2026年下半年新西兰房市预计将延续“全国平稳、区域分化”的格局。油价回落有助于缓解经济压力，并降低房价进一步下行的风险；但在通胀压力尚未完全消退、OCR预测仍为上涨趋势，贷款利率整体仍面临上行压力，或将继续制约购房需求和房价反弹空间。

本文将结合最新数据与政策动向，帮助大家梳理当前市场形势，并分析房市及利率走势，为您的购房规划与贷款决策提供参考。

房地产市场分析

房市表现疲软

多重利空压制下，4月新西兰房产销售量环比大跌6.6%，同比下滑9%；今年前四月全国累计成交量较去年同期减少约5%，折合少1500套房源成交，直观反映了买家观望情绪加重、置业决策趋于谨慎。销售挂牌比值小幅回落，拍卖成交率保持平稳；经季节性调整后，房屋挂牌中位出售天数降至45天，但该指标波动偏高，无法视作市场回暖信号。

REINZ房价指数4月环比下跌0.4%，奥克兰、惠灵顿及北岛多数区域房价回落明显，南岛前期涨价行情同步放缓。租赁市场显示，奥克兰房源充足、惠灵顿购房需求疲软带动租金整体走低，不过随着净移民回暖、出租房源缩减，租金深度下行周期有限，但短期难以迎来大幅反弹。

本轮房市降温由成本与货币政策双重驱动：国际油价大幅上涨推升国内成本型通胀，居民消费信心大幅受挫、经济基本面走弱；叠加市场OCR加息预期落地，购房借贷成本抬升，市场不确定性放大，共同削弱房市上行动能。

未来房市温和下跌

短期来看，市场预判2026年新西兰房价温和下跌2%；2027年伴随宏观经济修复，房价重回缓步上涨通道，2028年起年均涨幅稳定在3%~4%区间。

回顾过去，参考1992年至今新西兰房价年均6%的历史涨幅，受过往低利率、人均收入稳步提升、人口增长、房屋供给紧缺四大红利消退影响，未来房市长期中枢回落，基准预期年均房价上涨4%（2%实际涨幅+2%通胀）。

不过，4%的长期年均涨幅只是中性假设，未来走势仍存在双向变数。若全球利率趋势性上行、新西兰经济长期疲弱、住房供应改善带动建房成本下降，或税收政策削弱房产投资吸引力，房价长期涨幅可能低于这一水平。相反，若全球利率重新下行、CPI通胀长期高于2%，或住房供应瓶颈再次显现，房价涨幅也可能高于4%。

房贷利率分析

5月，新西兰批发利率普遍上行，背后主要有三重驱动：一是市场对RBNZ上调OCR的预期进一步升温；二是国内通胀压力仍在发酵；三是欧美财政可持续性担忧再起，推高全球债券收益率，并对新西兰本地利率形成外溢影响。

虽然五大银行房贷利率本月变动有限，仅1年期固定利率中位数小幅上调，但如果批发利率继续维持高位，后续房贷利率仍可能面临进一步上行压力。

OCR加息预期

ANZ月度房产报告里表明自今年7月开启三次加息，单次上调25个基点，年末OCR落地3%，本轮加息为短期快速收紧，并非持续性加息周期。但金融市场定价更为激进，预测2027年8月OCR最高升至3.6%，这是由于市场担忧油价飙升复刻70年代石油危机、催生恶性通胀。

通胀结构层面，当前国内通胀以油价驱动的成本推动型通胀为主，需求过热带来的拉动型通胀并不突出，也是ANZ看空长期大幅加息的关键依据。

市场表明建议购房者优先锁定1~2年期固定房贷，该期限在融资成本与利率确定性之间达成平衡；同时因市场定价加息幅度远超银行基准预判，较短期批发利率存在回调可能，不建议盲目锁超长期限房贷。需要注意，全球油价、海外货币政策变数极大，全市场利率预测不确定性偏高，加息节奏随时可能变动。

总结

整体而言，新西兰5月房市处于温和调整周期。油价与加息是压制市场的核心变量，全年房价小幅下行已成共识。短期OCR预期开启加息、批发利率上行，将带动房贷利率增长。

我们会在您的贷款临近到期时主动联系您，并根据当时的市场情况为您提供个性化的贷款重组建议。如您近期有购房、贷款重组或转银行的计划，欢迎随时咨询，我们将竭诚为您服务！

However, the market outlook has become more uncertain. The sharp increase in global oil prices triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has added pressure to the domestic economy. At the same time, rising inflation expectations, earlier-than-expected interest rate hike expectations, and policy uncertainty ahead of the general election have all contributed to weaker buyer confidence. As a result, the housing market is now facing renewed downward pressure in the short term.

This report reviews the latest market data and policy developments, and provides an outlook on the housing market and mortgage interest rates to support home-buying and lending decisions.

Latest Housing Market Insights

Early-Year Recovery: Economic Improvement Supported House Price Growth

Before the sharp rise in oil prices, the New Zealand housing market had been showing a clear recovery trend. The key driver behind this improvement was the steady recovery of the domestic economy.

According to seasonally adjusted data, the REINZ House Price Index increased by 0.3% month-on-month in March, bringing total growth in the first quarter to 0.8%. Regionally, house prices in the South Island continued to rise, supported by the region’s strong agricultural base and recovering tourism sector. Meanwhile, Auckland and Wellington, which had previously experienced weaker market performance, also recorded modest rebounds from earlier lows.

Sales activity also showed positive signs. According to Interest.co.nz, real estate commission data increased significantly in the first quarter. Commission levels were 4% higher than the same period last year and 19% higher than the first quarter of 2024, reaching the highest first-quarter level since 2021. This suggests that market activity had been recovering steadily at the start of the year.

Other housing indicators remained relatively stable. Median days to sell decreased by one day to 46 days. However, sales volumes were slightly weaker, falling 2% year-on-year in the first quarter. Seasonally adjusted auction clearance rates remained broadly in line with the previous six months, showing no major fluctuations.

Oil Price Shock: Market Sentiment Weakened and Housing Activity Slowed

The sharp increase in fuel prices caused by the Middle East conflict disrupted the housing market’s recovery momentum. Market expectations quickly became more cautious, consumer confidence weakened, and housing transaction data began to soften.

According to Barfoot & Thompson, only 688 residential properties were sold in April, representing a sharp 18% decline compared with the same period last year. The median sale price in April was $955,250, down $74,750 from March, representing a monthly decline of 7.3%. Although the median price was still 2.3% higher than April last year, the short-term downward trend has become increasingly clear.

Auction activity also weakened significantly. Interest.co.nz monitored 333 residential property auctions nationwide during the week of 25 April to 1 May, of which only 101 properties were sold. This resulted in an auction clearance rate of just 30%, the lowest level since monitoring began and the first time in more than a year that the clearance rate had fallen below one-third. At the beginning of the year, the national auction clearance rate was above 40%, but it has been gradually declining since late February, reflecting a clear cooling in market activity.

The impact of higher fuel prices has flowed through to the wider economy and, in turn, the housing market. Higher oil prices reduce household disposable income, weaken consumer confidence, and create pressure on employment. New Zealand’s economy has shifted from a recovery phase at the start of the year to a more cautious and slower growth environment.

The services sector, one of the key pillars of the economy, is particularly exposed. As fuel costs rise, households tend to reduce discretionary spending on travel, shopping, dining, and leisure activities. This weakens business activity and adds further pressure to employment and income stability. Combined with rising interest rates, buyers have become more cautious, and housing demand has softened.

Inflation and Interest Rate Pressure: Borrowing Costs Continue to Rise

The surge in oil prices has not only weakened economic growth but has also added upward pressure to inflation. Before the oil price shock, New Zealand’s inflation rate had already reached 3.1%. ANZ expects inflation to rise to 4.4% in the second quarter, well above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range.

In response to higher inflation, the RBNZ is expected to tighten monetary policy by increasing the Official Cash Rate. ANZ forecasts that the first OCR hike could begin in July, followed by two further increases during the year, bringing the OCR to around 3%.

This means mortgage rates are likely to continue rising. Although interest rates are not expected to return to the extreme highs seen after the pandemic, a continued rate-hiking cycle will still increase repayment pressure for borrowers and weigh on both housing demand and price growth.

Election Uncertainty: Capital Gains Tax Expectations Weigh on Investor Sentiment

The upcoming general election has become another key source of uncertainty for the housing market. Labour has clearly stated that, if elected, it would introduce a capital gains tax on residential investment properties and commercial properties, while also considering other tax reforms. This policy directly affects property investors and may further reduce investment demand.

A capital gains tax would reduce after-tax returns for property investors. Together with higher interest rates, this has already caused many investors to scale back their activity or sell existing properties. Data shows that investors’ share of market transactions fell from 22% in January to 19% in March. If a capital gains tax is formally introduced, property investment activity could decline further.

However, some economists argue that the direct impact of capital gains tax on house prices may be limited. Historical examples from Canada in 1972, Australia in 1985, and South Africa in 2001 suggest that the introduction of capital gains tax did not cause a sharp fall in house prices. In these cases, house prices generally continued to follow broader economic and interest rate trends.

This may be because macroeconomic conditions and interest rate movements have a greater impact on the housing market than tax policy alone. In addition, capital gains tax usually applies only to investment properties, while owner-occupied homes are not directly affected. Therefore, the overall impact on house prices may be relatively limited. Nevertheless, policy uncertainty ahead of the election has already caused many investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach, reducing overall market activity.

Mortgage Rate and Housing Market Outlook

Current mortgage rate data from New Zealand’s five major banks shows that fixed mortgage rates for terms of one year and above have increased noticeably, with the two-year and five-year fixed rates seeing the most significant rises.

Previously, the market generally expected the first OCR hike to occur toward the end of the year. However, rate hike expectations have now moved forward, with the first increase expected in July, followed by two additional hikes that could bring the OCR to around 3%.

Earlier in the year, the two-year fixed rate was widely viewed as a balanced option between repayment stability and borrowing cost. However, as rates for one-year and longer fixed terms have now increased, the value of longer-term fixed rates has weakened.

The future direction of mortgage rates will largely depend on developments in the Middle East. If geopolitical tensions continue or escalate, mortgage rates may rise further, making longer-term fixed rates more attractive for borrowers seeking certainty. If tensions ease quickly, shorter-term fixed rates may offer better value.

Given the current level of uncertainty, some borrowers may prioritise repayment stability. As a result, 18-month and two-year fixed terms are likely to remain popular choices. However, these terms are already priced at relatively high levels and may not offer a clear cost advantage. Ultimately, the best choice will depend on each borrower’s individual circumstances, risk tolerance, and preference for certainty.

ANZ forecasts that New Zealand house prices may decline slightly by around 2% this year. However, some economists remain more optimistic and believe house prices may remain broadly stable.

Overall, the New Zealand housing market is likely to enter a mild adjustment phase in the short term. Looking further ahead, as economic conditions improve and market pressures gradually ease, house prices may regain momentum. By 2027, the market is expected to move beyond the current period of uncertainty and enter a moderate recovery phase.

Conclusion

Overall, the New Zealand housing market began the year with clear signs of recovery. However, in the short term, the market is facing several headwinds, including higher oil prices, rising inflation, increasing mortgage rates, and policy uncertainty ahead of the election.

These factors have weakened buyer confidence and increased market caution. As a result, house prices are likely to experience a modest correction rather than a sharp decline.

Looking ahead, as geopolitical risks become clearer, monetary policy stabilises, and election-related policy uncertainty is resolved, pressure on the housing market should gradually ease. Supported by underlying supply and demand fundamentals, the market is expected to return to a more stable path, with house prices potentially entering a moderate recovery phase by 2027.

We will proactively contact you as your loan approaches expiry and provide personalised refinancing or restructuring advice based on prevailing market conditions. If you are planning a purchase, refinancing, or loan restructures, please feel free to reach out at any time — we are always happy to help.

Thank you for your trust and continued support.

然而，随着中东地缘冲突引发国际油价大幅上涨，叠加国内通胀上行压力、央行加息预期提前升温以及大选带来的政策不确定性等多重因素影响，新西兰经济复苏节奏有所放缓，居民购房信心持续走弱，房地产市场短期走势已转为承压调整。

本文将结合最新数据与政策动向，帮助大家梳理当前市场形势，并分析房市及利率走势，为您的购房规划与贷款决策提供参考。

房地产市场分析

年初房市回暖：经济复苏驱动价格上行

油价大幅上涨前，新西兰房地产市场整体呈现上涨态势，核心驱动力来自国内经济的稳步复苏。

数据层面，经季节性调整后，REINZ房价指数3月环比上涨0.3%，今年第一季度累计涨幅达0.8%。分区域来看，南岛房价保持持续上升走势，当地成熟的农业与蓬勃发展的旅游业，为区域房价提供了坚实支撑；此前市场表现低迷的奥克兰、惠灵顿两大核心城市，也从前期低位迎来小幅回升，房市整体回暖态势明显。

市场交易层面同样释放积极信号，据Interest.co.nz报道，今年第一季度房产销售市场活跃度提升，房地产销售佣金数据实现大幅增长：较去年第一季度上涨4%，较2024年第一季度增长19%，创下2021年以来第一季度最高佣金水平，印证了年初房市交易的回暖趋势。

与此同时，房价相关配套指标整体表现平稳：房屋平均销售天数缩短1天，降至46天；不过房屋销量指标略显疲软，第一季度销量同比下降2%；经季节性调整后的房产拍卖成交率，与过去六个月水平基本持平，未出现明显波动

油价激增冲击：房市急转下行，信心大幅受挫

中东地区冲突引发燃油价格大幅飙升，直接打破了房市的回暖节奏，市场预期迅速转向悲观，消费者信心持续走低，房市交易数据同步回落。

据Barfoot & Thompson数据显示，4月该机构仅售出688套住宅物业，较去年同期大幅下降18%；4月房产中位售价为955,250纽币，较3月减少74,750纽币，环比降幅达7.3%，尽管较去年4月仍小幅上涨2.3%（上涨21,250纽币），但短期下行趋势已十分明显。

拍卖市场表现更是跌至低谷，Interest.co.nz在4月25日-5月1日一周内，对全国333处住宅房产拍卖情况进行监测，其中仅101处房产成功售出，拍卖销售率仅30%，为监测以来最低水平，也是一年多来首次跌破三分之一。今年年初全国房产拍卖销售率曾超40%，自2月下旬起便持续缓慢下滑，房市交易热度快速降温。

燃油价格上涨对经济形成全面冲击，进而传导至房地产市场：油价飙升直接拖累居民实际收入、打击消费者信心并影响就业市场，新西兰经济从年初的复苏态势转向缓慢下行。作为经济支柱的服务业首当其冲，受油价上涨影响，居民主动减少出行、购物、餐饮等消费支出，服务业发展受阻。经济下行压力下，居民就业稳定性与实际收入受到双重影响，叠加利率持续上行，民众购房决策愈发谨慎，房产有效需求逐步缩减，直接拖累房市整体表现。

通胀与利率双重压力：购房成本持续攀升

油价激增不仅抑制经济增长，更进一步推高国内通胀水平。油价上涨前，新西兰通胀率已达3.1%，ANZ预测，今年第二季度通胀率将攀升至4.4%，大幅超出新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）设定的通胀目标区间。

为遏制通胀走高，新西兰储备银行大概率采取上调官方现金利率（OCR）的调控策略。ANZ预测，央行将从今年7月启动加息，全年共计三次上调OCR，最终利率将升至3%左右，这意味着后续房贷利率将继续上行。尽管利率不会回升至疫情后的高位，但持续的加息周期，仍将大幅增加购房者还贷成本，对购房需求与房市走势形成明显抑制。

大选政策不确定性：资本利得税加剧投资观望

即将到来的大选，成为影响新西兰房市的另一大不确定性因素。工党明确承诺，若成功执政将对住宅投资房产、商业房产引入资本利得税（CGT），同时考虑推进其他税收调整，该政策直接触及房产投资者核心利益，对房市投资端形成显著冲击。

资本利得税将直接降低房产投资税后回报，叠加此前利率上行影响，已有大量投资者缩减投资活动、变卖所持房产。数据显示，房产投资者在市场交易中的占比，已从1月的22%降至3月的19%；若资本利得税正式落地，房产投资活动将进一步大幅收缩。

不过也有观点认为，资本利得税对房价的直接影响并不显著。参考加拿大（1972年）、澳大利亚（1985年）、南非（2001年）引入资本利得税的历史经验，三国房价并未因政策出台出现大幅波动，整体仍延续原有走势。究其原因，或因宏观经济环境、利率变动等因素对房市的影响，远大于资本利得税政策；同时该政策仅针对投资性房产，自住型住房不受影响，因此对整体房价的冲击有限。但即便如此，大选带来的政策不确定性，已让多数房产投资者持观望态度，进一步降低了房市整体活跃度。

房贷利率以及房市分析

目前新西兰五大银行房贷利率中位数显示，1年期及以上各期限固定房贷利率均出现明显上调，其中2年期、5年期固定利率涨幅最为突出。此前市场普遍预测OCR首次加息将在年底，而当前加息预期已提前，OCR将于7月迎来首次上调，后续再经两次加息至3%。

此前市场认为2年期固定利率能平衡稳定性与借贷成本，但目前1年期及以上期限利率已全面上调，超过1年期的长期固定利率，性价比明显下降。

后续利率走势高度依赖中东局势发展：若中东冲突持续升级、局势长期紧张，房贷利率将进一步上行，锁定长期利率更具优势；若局势快速缓和，选择短期固定利率则更划算。当前市场不确定性较高，部分借款人更看重利率稳定性，18个月、2年期固定利率成为主流选择，但这类期限利率已处于高位，从成本角度并无明显优势，最终选择仍取决于借款人自身偏好。

ANZ 预测，今年新西兰房价将小幅下降约 2%。不过，也有经济学家持相对乐观态度，认为房价今年有望保持基本平稳。

整体来看，短期内新西兰房地产市场或将进入小幅调整阶段；但从中长期来看，随着经济环境改善及市场压力逐步缓解，预计到 2027 年，新西兰房价有望摆脱当前多重压力，进入温和上涨周期。

总结

综合多重因素来看，年初房市逐步恢复，但短期内在高油价冲击经济、通胀增长，房贷持续上行、大选税收政策不明朗等多重利空叠加下，市场观望情绪浓厚，房价大概率迎来小幅回调。整体楼市不会出现剧烈波动，更多以温和调整为主。随着后续地缘局势逐步明朗、货币政策趋于稳定、大选政策落地清晰，叠加供需基本面支撑，房市压力将逐步缓释，预计2027年市场将重回平稳通道，房价有望迎来温和修复。

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