Since the beginning of 2026, the New Zealand housing market has shown signs of a gradual recovery, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions. House prices have been trending upward, sales activity has improved, and the previous divergence between the North Island and South Island markets has started to narrow.

2026年开年以来，新西兰房地产市场在宏观经济复苏的带动下出现阶段性回暖，房价稳步上行，市场交易活跃度有所提升，南北岛之间的分化格局也逐步改善。

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Recent escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has triggered a sharp rise in global oil prices, which in turn is driving up the cost of everyday goods and production materials. As a result, inflationary pressure is increasing.

近期中东冲突持续发酵，直接引发全球油价大幅上涨，进而带动各类民生商品、生产物资物价同步攀升，国内通胀压力随之加剧。与此同时，过去几个月贷款利率已迎来连续上涨，多重外部风险与市场变动交织，让不少人对当下经济与房产市场充满担忧，恐慌情绪逐渐蔓延。

This month, the housing market is still settling into a familiar rhythm: plenty of listings, broadly steady prices, and clear differences from region to region.

The Reserve Bank held the OCR unchanged this month, which gives borrowers a bit of breathing room. That said, the conversation in the market has shifted from “rates are falling” to “could rates rise later this year?” As a result, buyers are paying closer attention to borrowing costs and overall decision-making remains cautious.

Below is the view of the latest housing and mortgage-rate trends.

Latest Housing Market Insights

House Prices: Broadly Stable

At a national level, house prices are largely flat. Some forecasters have lowered their 2026 growth outlook (from around 5% down to ~2%), and new data suggests the chance of growth under 2% is increasing. The Reserve Bank itself has also suggested prices may be close to unchanged this year.

Recent price patterns support this: 8 of the past 9 months have been flat or down, implying a gentle downward drift of roughly 0.5% per quarter. In January, prices eased 0.2% month-on-month. Overall, the market still lacks a strong catalyst for a broad-based price lift.

Supply Is Rising, While Demand Is Softening

A useful early indicator for housing is the sales-to-inventory ratio, which often signals price direction three to six months ahead. Right now, that balance is telling a clear story: supply is building.

-New listings continue to rise

-Total stock remains high

-Auckland inventory is still increasing, while South Island stock has started to ease from elevated levels

According to Realestate.co.nz, February saw 12,252 new listings, up 7.8% year-on-year—the strongest February result on the platform since 2013. Total inventory has climbed to its highest level in nearly 11 years, reaching 36,357 properties for sale nationwide by the end of February. More listings mean more choice, and that typically strengthens buyers’ negotiating power.

On the demand side, sales activity has not improved at the same pace. Auction data supports this. Interest.co.nz reported that during the week of 21–27 February, 562 homes went to auction nationwide—the busiest week since late November. Of those, 219 sold, for a clearance rate of 39%, slightly below the 40%+ level that has often been seen since last August.

In other words, auctions are busier—but that appears to be driven more by more homes coming to market than a clear surge in buyer demand.

Recovery provides a floor, but not enough to drive a strong upswing

On the macro side, the economy is gradually moving from the post-pandemic inflation phase into a milder recovery. Several indicators have been steady: consumer confidence has lifted from multi-year lows, the labour market has improved at the margin, and net migration has begun to recover (though still low historically). Rents on new tenancies have also stabilised after last year’s decline, likely supported by improved rental demand as migration picks up.

These factors help provide a moderate underpinning for housing. However, that support is still being offset by high levels of supply, which keeps pressure off prices.

From a policy perspective, the RBNZ kept the OCR at 2.25% and noted that spare capacity should help inflation continue tracking back toward the midpoint of the 1%–3% target range. At the same time, it also signalled that a rate increase later this year remains possible—so market expectations for rates are starting to shift.

When you combine that with election-related uncertainty and reduced near-term investor appeal, it’s easy to see why buyers remain cautious. Overall, 2026 still looks more like a year of stability than a year of strong nationwide growth.

Regional Snapshot

House Price Index (YoY)

• Auckland: -2.6%
• Wellington: -3.5%
• Otago: +4.6%
• Southland: +12%
• Canterbury: +2.8%

Sales (MoM)

• Gisborne: -16%
• Manawatu-Whanganui: -12%
• Auckland: -7%
• Wellington: -2%
• Canterbury: -8%
• Otago: 0% (flat)

Overall, parts of the South Island remain relatively resilient, while Auckland and Wellington are still softer. Many regions are seeing lower month-on-month sales, which reinforces the view that buyers are staying cautious and regional divergence is likely to continue.

Mortgage Rate Trends

This month’s rate moves were split by term:

-6-month fixed fell around 0.20%

-1-year fixed was broadly unchanged

-18-month to 5-year fixed rates rose about 0.04%–0.20%

-Floating rates were unchanged

While longer fixed terms have edged up, locking in medium-to-longer terms can still make sense for borrowers who value certainty—especially if the OCR is expected to rise later.

Wholesale pricing expectations also suggest that the peak for 1–3-year terms next year may still sit below today’s 4–5-year fixed rates. For many borrowers, 18 months to 3 years continues to offer a strong balance between cost and certainty. And because the rate path is hard to call with confidence, splitting lending across different terms remains a practical way to manage risk.

Conclusion

In short, high supply and softer sales continue to keep the market buyer-friendly and limit upside pressure on prices. The economic recovery provides support, but expectations around future rate moves and election uncertainty are still encouraging a wait-and-see approach. Nationally, we expect prices to remain broadly stable in the near term, with regional differences continuing.

We will proactively contact you as your loan approaches expiry and provide personalised refinancing or restructuring advice based on prevailing market conditions. If you are planning a purchase, refinancing, or loan restructures, please feel free to reach out at any time — we are always happy to help.

Thank you for your trust and continued support.

For clients with an LVR of 80% or below (including both new and existing customers), pre-approval is currently available with ASB, ANZ and Westpac. If you are considering purchasing a property, now is an ideal time to plan and secure pre-approval. Please feel free to contact us for assistance.

Latest Housing Market Insights

Price Trends: Flat Overall, Ongoing Regional Divergence

According to the latest House Price Index released by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), national house prices have broadly maintained the stable trend observed over the past three years. After seasonal adjustment, prices declined only 0.1% year-on-year, indicating that the market remains largely flat.

Regional differences remain pronounced. Wellington continues to weaken, with prices down approximately 4% over the past six months. Auckland has also seen modest declines, though losses have been relatively mild. In contrast, the South Island has demonstrated greater resilience, with Canterbury and Otago continuing to record price growth, supported by stronger regional economic activity and employment conditions.

Market Momentum: Supply and Demand Indicators Suggest Short-Term Stability

Several key activity indicators suggest limited upward momentum for house prices in the near term.

The sales-to-inventory ratio, which typically leads price trends by three to six months, is currently flat, indicating balanced supply and demand and limited room for short-term price fluctuations.

Median days to sell remain at 45 days, above the long-term average of 40 days, suggesting slower absorption rates and stronger buyer negotiating power.

Auction clearance rates are close to 40%, similar to previous levels, further indicating subdued overall market activity.

Taken together, these indicators confirm that the market remains firmly in buyer territory.

Demand Remains Constrained

Sales volumes improved modestly in late 2025 following several OCR cuts and lower mortgage rates. However, demand growth in 2026 faces multiple headwinds.

First, the monetary policy outlook has shifted. With inflation pressures rising, the Reserve Bank is expected to begin tightening again by late 2026. Mortgage rates have gradually moved off their lows, and higher borrowing costs are likely to weigh on both owner-occupier affordability and investor demand.

Second, policy uncertainty related to the general election, particularly discussions around capital gains taxation, may cause some buyers and investors to delay decisions, reducing market activity.

Additionally, population trends are contributing to softer demand. Net migration has declined, departures have increased, and some New Zealand residents are relocating to Australia for stronger labour market opportunities, resulting in weaker incremental housing demand.

Supply Remains Elevated

New listings continue to sit near decade highs, keeping inventory levels ample. Construction activity also remains relatively strong. Although building consents have retreated from the 2022 peak, per capita approvals are still above historical averages.

Higher-density developments such as townhouses now account for a larger share of new supply. Combined with temporarily lower financing costs and easing land prices, developers remain incentivised to bring additional stock to market. This steady pipeline of supply continues to cap price growth.

Investment Appeal Remains Limited

The relationship between mortgage rates and net rental yields remains a key measure of investment attractiveness. Currently, rental growth is moderate while mortgage rates are gradually rising, leaving net yields relatively unattractive.

This dynamic is expected to persist for some time and is likely to constrain investor participation.

Economic Recovery and Rising Inflation

Data from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) indicates that the economy began recovering in the second half of 2025, with GDP showing improvement.

However, recovery has been accompanied by stronger inflation pressures. Annual inflation reached 3.1% in Q4 2025, exceeding the Reserve Bank’s earlier forecast of 2.7%. Persistent inflation has brought forward expectations of monetary tightening, with markets now anticipating the first OCR increase by late 2026 rather than 2027.

Price Outlook and Interest Rate Strategy

Taking into account supply-demand dynamics, policy factors, and interest rate trends, the 2026 house price growth forecast has been revised down from 5% to 2%, suggesting continued stability. The 2027 forecast remains unchanged at 4.5%.

Mortgage rate movements have recently diverged. Fixed rates of 18 months and longer have increased by 20–45 basis points, while 6 months rates have fallen by 10 basis points. Floating and 1 year fixed rates remain largely unchanged. Given wholesale rate movements and tightening expectations, longer-term rates face further upward pressure.

In this environment, a diversified multi-term fixing strategy may help balance costs and manage risk.

Summary

The New Zealand property market is expected to remain low momentum through 2026. While economic recovery provides some support, rising interest rates, policy uncertainty, and softer demand continue to act as constraints. With supply and demand broadly balanced, price growth is likely to remain limited, and significant short-term gains appear unlikely.

We will proactively contact you as your loan approaches expiry and provide personalised refinancing or restructuring advice based on prevailing market conditions. If you are planning a purchase, refinancing, or loan restructures, please feel free to reach out at any time — we are always happy to help.

近期，新西兰房地产市场整体延续平稳运行态势。房价走势分化明显，买卖双方力量趋于均衡；与此同时，利率上升预期、政策不确定性以及人口流动变化，也正在对购房需求与投资决策产生新的影响。

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At the same time, major banks have launched short-term cashback offers of up to 1.5% to attract new customers. These promotions have significantly boosted application volumes, resulting in slower turnaround times.

Our office will be closed from 24 December to 7 January for the Christmas and New Year holiday period. Please plan ahead and contact us early if you have lending needs.

Wishing you all a wonderful Christmas and a very happy New Year!

Latest Housing Market Insights

Soft overall growth with clear regional divergence

Nationwide house prices slipped 0.1% in October, with annual growth moderating to just 0.3%—below earlier expectations.

• Wellington saw renewed weakness
• Auckland and northern regions were broadly flat
• The South Island continued to outperform, recording steady increases

Sales and new listings both rising

Seasonally adjusted sales rose in October, and new listings continued to climb, reaching their second-highest level since 2021. Because new listings are increasing slightly faster than sales, total inventory has reached a 10-year high, putting further pressure on price growth.

Key drivers of elevated listings include:
• Historically high levels of new housing supply, exceeding population growth for several years
• Outflow of residents selling homes before moving overseas
• Investors exiting due to higher holding costs (rates, insurance, maintenance), while rental growth remains muted or even negative in some areas

Indicators still point to a buyer-friendly market

• Sales-to-inventory ratio: Stable throughout the year, suggesting stable house market over the next 3–6 months
• Median days to sell: 45 days (vs long-term average of 40), indicating buyers retain the advantage
• Auction clearance rates: Improving gradually, showing early signs of returning confidence

Overall, the market remains well-supplied, price movements are modest, and conditions are balanced but still lean toward buyers.

Interest Rates and Outlook

OCR outlook

The OCR was reduced to 2.25% in November, and most economists expect it to remain unchanged through 2026. Inflation is projected to fall from the current 3.0% to 2.9% next quarter, and to around 2.2% in early 2026—close to the midpoint of the RBNZ target band.

With most of the easing cycle now complete, markets have begun discussing the possibility of rate hikes in the future. Some forecasts suggest small increases may begin in early 2027, though uncertainty remains high.

Mortgage rate outlook

Despite OCR cuts, wholesale swap rates have rebounded from 2.44% in October to around 2.82%. Wholesale rates are a key input in how banks price fixed terms, which explains why fixed rates have not fallen further.

Market sentiment is shifting from “rate cuts” to “rate stability and gradual increases.” Starting in 2026, mortgage rates are expected to trend higher in a slow, moderate fashion. For this reason, locking in part of your lending for 2–5 years may help manage future refix risk. A staggered structure can also offer greater flexibility.

House Price Outlook

Most forecasts point to modest house price growth of around 5% in 2026, supported by a recovering economy. However, several factors are expected to keep gains moderate:
• Strong construction activity and ample new supply
• Higher holding costs (insurance, rates, maintenance) weighing on demand
• Wider adoption of Debt-to-Income (DTI) restrictions, which may limit borrowing power for some buyers
• The end of the multi-decade global low-interest-rate era in 2021, removing a key driver of long-term price escalation

Summary

The housing market is stable, well-supplied, and showing mild, steady movements. Mortgage rates appear close to the bottom of this cycle, making it an opportune time to review loan structures and consider medium- to long-term fixed options.

As we head into the busiest period of the year for banks—with many lenders pausing certain pre-approvals—processing times are noticeably slower. If you are planning to purchase, refix, restructure, or make lump-sum repayments, please reach out early so we can help you avoid holiday delays.

December marks the beginning of summer in New Zealand, and the warmer days bring both opportunities and challenges for your health. Staying active and enjoying outdoor activities is easier with the sun and longer daylight hours, but dehydration and fatigue can quickly set in if you’re not careful. Hydration is more than just quenching thirst — it’s essential for energy, concentration, and overall wellbeing.

• Supports energy and focus: Even mild dehydration can cause fatigue, poor concentration, and headaches.
• Protects your heart and kidneys: Adequate fluid intake helps maintain healthy circulation and kidney function.
• Regulates body temperature: Water helps your body stay cool in hot weather, reducing the risk of heat exhaustion.
• Affects mood: Dehydration can contribute to irritability and low mood.

Tips to stay hydrated

• Drink consistently: Don’t wait until you’re thirsty — aim to sip water throughout the day.
• Include hydrating foods: Fruits like watermelon, oranges, and strawberries, and vegetables such as cucumber and lettuce, are high in water content.
• Limit dehydrating drinks: Alcohol and caffeinated beverages can contribute to fluid loss. Pair alcohol with a glass of water.
• Carry a refillable bottle: Keep water on hand wherever you go — at work, outdoors, or running errands.
• Listen to your body: Signs of dehydration include dry mouth, dizziness, dark urine, and fatigue.

Extra tips for staying energised

• Balance meals: Include protein, healthy fats, and complex carbohydrates to maintain steady energy levels.
• Plan activity wisely: Exercise or outdoor activities are best in cooler parts of the day, such as morning or late afternoon.
• Rest and recovery: Adequate sleep supports hydration and energy levels throughout the day.

Bottom line

Early summer is the perfect time to enjoy the outdoors, but staying hydrated is key to feeling your best. By making small, consistent choices — drinking water regularly, eating hydrating foods, and listening to your body — you can maintain energy, protect your health, and fully enjoy the start of New Zealand’s summer season.